Abstract
The standard metric for American football field goal kickers is simply the percentage of attempts successfully converted. Due to variance in distance of attempts and other conditions (weather, altitude, defense, etc.), we argue that field goal percentage is an insufficient measure of kicker performance. Using three seasons of NFL data, we construct a multivariate logistic regression model for the success probability of a given attempt. This leads naturally to metrics in which a kicker’s performance is compared to model expectations, if a replacement-level player was attempting the same kicks. Player salaries correlate only weakly with our measures of field goal kicking success. We find that those kickers selected to the Pro Bowl and All-Pro teams were rather mediocre by our metrics, over the seasons studied. The relative difficulty of kicking in various stadiums is also considered. Finally, we discuss the degree to which field goal kicking is a skill that can be maintained over multiple seasons.
Overall Kicking Results, by PARK (minimum 48 FGA)
Player & Year | FGM/A | FG% | Repl% | FG%+ | PARK | FGM dist. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1) R. Bironas | 81/93 | 87.1% (4) | 71.1% (4) | +16.0% (2) | +44.6 (1) | 37.6 (3) |
2) S. Janikowski | 83/100 | 83.0% (24) | 68.6% (2) | +14.4% (3) | +43.1 (2) | 37.3 (4) |
3) D. Akers | 107/128 | 83.6% (23) | 74.6% (16) | +9.0% (15) | +34.5 (3) | 34.1 (24) |
4) J. Hanson | 54/64 | 84.4% (15) | 66.7% (1) | +17.7% (1) | +34.0 (4) | 40.2 (1) |
5) J. Kasay | 75/87 | 86.2% (8) | 73.5% (9) | +12.7% (4) | +33.1 (5) | 36.4 (7) |
6) J. Brown | 83/99 | 83.8% (20) | 74.1% (12) | +9.8% (11) | +29.1 (6) | 37.6 (2) |
7) R. Gould | 75/87 | 86.2% (8) | 75.2% (18) | +11.0% (7) | +28.8 (7) | 34.9 (14) |
8) J. Feely | 81/96 | 84.4% (15) | 74.6% (15) | +9.8% (10) | +28.3 (8) | 35.4 (13) |
9) R. Longwell | 74/82 | 90.2% (1) | 78.9% (30) | +11.4% (5) | +28.0 (9) | 34.3 (22) |
10) N. Rackers | 74/85 | 87.1% (5) | 76.2% (21) | +10.8% (8) | +27.6 (10) | 34.9 (15) |
11) D. Carpenter | 77/95 | 81.1% (28) | 71.8% (5) | +9.3% (13) | +26.5 (11) | 36.4 (6) |
12) J. Reed | 83/99 | 83.8% (20) | 75.1% (17) | +8.7% (17) | +25.9 (12) | 33.0 (29) |
13) O. Mare | 76/86 | 88.4% (2) | 79.4% (31) | +9.0% (14) | +23.2 (13) | 33.7 (26) |
14) J. Nedney | 57/67 | 85.1% (11) | 73.8% (10) | +11.3% (6) | +22.7 (14) | 35.8 (10) |
15) P. Dawson | 70/83 | 84.3% (17) | 75.5% (19) | +8.8% (16) | +21.9 (15) | 32.9 (30) |
16) R. Lindell | 74/92 | 80.4% (29) | 72.7% (6) | +7.7% (20) | +21.2 (16) | 34.5 (19) |
17) N. Kaeding | 84/100 | 84.0% (18) | 77.3% (25) | +6.7% (22) | +20.1 (17) | 33.5 (28) |
18) S. Gostkowski | 72/85 | 84.7% (14) | 76.9% (23) | +7.8% (19) | +19.9 (18) | 34.3 (21) |
19) A. Vinatieri | 57/66 | 86.4% (7) | 76.5% (22) | +9.8% (9) | +19.5 (19) | 35.8 (9) |
20) G. Hartley | 50/57 | 87.7% (3) | 78.2% (28) | +9.6% (12) | +16.4 (20) | 34.4 (20) |
21) S. Graham | 58/68 | 85.3% (10) | 77.4% (26) | +7.9% (18) | +16.2 (21) | 32.6 (32) |
22) M. Prater | 71/87 | 81.6% (27) | 75.6% (20) | +6.1% (25) | +15.8 (22) | 35.7 (12) |
23) M. Bryant | 67/79 | 84.8% (13) | 78.3% (29) | +6.5% (24) | +15.4 (23) | 33.9 (25) |
24) R. Succop | 45/55 | 81.8% (26) | 74.2% (14) | +7.6% (21) | +12.5 (24) | 34.5 (18) |
25) S. Suisham | 66/85 | 77.6% (31) | 72.8% (7) | +4.9% (28) | +12.4 (25) | 34.8 (16) |
26) M. Crosby | 80/104 | 76.9% (33) | 73.0% (8) | +3.9% (30) | +12.1 (26) | 34.1 (23) |
27) B. Cundiff | 51/59 | 86.4% (6) | 79.9% (32) | +6.5% (23) | +11.6 (27) | 31.4 (35) |
28) C. Barth | 47/59 | 79.7% (30) | 74.1% (13) | +5.5% (27) | +9.8 (28) | 35.9 (8) |
29) M. Stover | 46/55 | 83.6% (22) | 78.0% (27) | +5.6% (26) | +9.3 (29) | 31.9 (33) |
30) J. Carney | 56/66 | 84.8% (12) | 80.4% (34) | +4.5% (29) | +8.9 (30) | 31.9 (34) |
31) J. Scobee | 59/81 | 72.8% (35) | 69.8% (3) | +3.0% (31) | +7.3 (31) | 37.3 (5) |
32) N. Folk | 70/92 | 76.1% (34) | 73.9% (11) | +2.2% (34) | +6.0 (32) | 35.7 (11) |
33) L. Tynes | 47/56 | 83.9% (19) | 81.2% (35) | +2.8% (32) | +4.6 (33) | 32.7 (31) |
34) J. Elam | 42/51 | 82.4% (25) | 80.1% (33) | +2.2% (33) | +3.4 (34) | 34.6 (17) |
35) K. Brown | 54/70 | 77.1% (32) | 77.0% (24) | +0.2% (35) | +0.3 (35) | 33.6 (27) |
Seasonal Kicking Results, by PARK (minimum 16 FGA)
Player & Year | FGM/A | FG% | Repl% | FG%+ | PARK | FGM dist. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1) S. Janikowski ’09 | 26/29 | 89.7% (14) | 61.6% (1) | +28.1% (2) | +24.4 (1) | 42.5 (2) |
2) J. Hanson ’08 | 21/22 | 95.5% (1) | 64.8% (3) | +30.7% (1) | +20.3 (2) | 42.9 (1) |
3) R. Bironas ’08 | 30/35 | 85.7% (32) | 68.4% (8) | +17.3% (6) | +18.2 (3) | 37.7 (11) |
4) J. Reed ’08 | 32/36 | 88.9% (18) | 72.7% (30) | +16.2% (8) | +17.5 (4) | 33.3 (70) |
5) J. Brown ’08 | 31/36 | 86.1% (31) | 70.9% (16) | +15.2% (14) | +16.4 (5) | 39.0 (8) |
6) S. Gostkowski ’08 | 36/40 | 90.0% (12) | 76.7% (59) | +13.3% (22) | +16.0 (6) | 34.4 (56) |
7) R. Bironas ’09 | 27/32 | 84.4% (45) | 68.4% (9) | +16.0% (9) | +15.3 (7) | 39.1 (7) |
8) A. Vinatieri ’10 | 29/31 | 93.5% (4) | 77.2% (64) | +16.4% (7) | +15.2 (8) | 35.9 (30) |
9) J. Kasay ’08 | 28/31 | 90.3% (10) | 74.5% (43) | +15.8% (10) | +14.7 (9) | 36.7 (22) |
10) J. Carney ’08 | 38/43 | 88.4% (22) | 77.1% (63) | +11.3% (35) | +14.6 (10) | 32.3 (86) |
11) N. Folk ’08 | 20/22 | 90.9% (8) | 69.3% (11) | +21.6% (3) | +14.3 (11) | 40.8 (4) |
12) J. Kasay ’10 | 25/29 | 86.2% (29) | 70.6% (14) | +15.6% (11) | +13.6 (12) | 37.6 (12) |
13) D. Akers ’08 | 42/50 | 84.0% (49) | 75.0% (48) | +9.0% (47) | +13.4 (13) | 33.6 (66) |
14) D. Akers ’09 | 32/37 | 86.5% (28) | 74.6% (44) | +11.8% (29) | +13.1 (14) | 34.8 (46) |
15) J. Elam ’08 | 30/32 | 93.8% (3) | 80.1% (84) | +13.6% (20) | +13.1 (15) | 34.6 (50) |
16) J. Nedney ’08 | 29/33 | 87.9% (23) | 74.8% (47) | +13.1% (24) | +13.0 (16) | 35.7 (35) |
17) J. Feely ’10 | 24/27 | 88.9% (18) | 73.3% (32) | +15.6% (12) | +12.6 (17) | 36.6 (26) |
18) K. Brown ’08 | 29/33 | 87.9% (23) | 75.4% (50) | +12.5% (26) | +12.3 (18) | 34.6 (51) |
19) R. Succop ’09 | 25/29 | 86.2% (29) | 72.5% (29) | +13.7% (19) | +11.9 (19) | 34.0 (59) |
20) P. Dawson ’08 | 30/36 | 83.3% (51) | 72.3% (28) | +11.0% (37) | +11.9 (20) | 34.6 (52) |
21) N. Rackers ’10 | 27/30 | 90.0% (12) | 76.8% (60) | +13.2% (23) | +11.9 (21) | 35.9 (31) |
22) R. Longwell ’08 | 29/34 | 85.3% (37) | 73.7% (36) | +11.6% (31) | +11.8 (22) | 37.1 (17) |
23) R. Gould ’09 | 24/28 | 85.7% (32) | 71.7% (24) | +14.0% (16) | +11.8 (23) | 35.7 (33) |
24) J. Feely ’09 | 33/41 | 80.5% (65) | 71.0% (17) | +9.5% (42) | +11.7 (24) | 36.8 (19) |
25) N. Rackers ’08 | 30/35 | 85.7% (32) | 74.7% (45) | +11.0% (38) | +11.6 (25) | 34.0 (60) |
26) B. Cundiff ’10 | 30/33 | 90.9% (8) | 79.2% (78) | +11.7% (30) | +11.6 (26) | 32.5 (80) |
27) S. Janikowski ’10 | 33/41 | 80.5% (65) | 71.2% (19) | +9.3% (45) | +11.4 (27) | 36.3 (28) |
28) R. Bironas ’10 | 24/26 | 92.3% (6) | 78.1% (70) | +14.3% (15) | +11.1 (28) | 35.7 (33) |
29) R. Gould ’08 | 26/29 | 89.7% (14) | 77.0% (62) | +12.6% (25) | +11.0 (29) | 35.5 (37) |
30) R. Longwell ’09 | 28/30 | 93.3% (5) | 81.2% (92) | +12.1% (28) | +10.9 (30) | 33.1 (74) |
31) M. Bryant ’10 | 28/31 | 90.3% (10) | 78.8% (75) | +11.5% (34) | +10.7 (31) | 34.5 (54) |
32) S. Suisham ’10 | 17/20 | 85.0% (39) | 67.5% (7) | +17.5% (5) | +10.5 (32) | 34.9 (45) |
33) O. Mare ’08 | 24/27 | 88.9% (18) | 76.4% (57) | +12.5% (27) | +10.1 (33) | 36.7 (23) |
34) S. Graham ’08 | 21/24 | 87.5% (25) | 73.6% (35) | +13.9% (17) | +10.0 (34) | 33.6 (66) |
35) D. Carpenter ’09 | 25/28 | 89.3% (17) | 77.7% (67) | +11.6% (32) | +9.7 (35) | 35.2 (40) |
36) M. Prater ’10 | 16/18 | 88.9% (18) | 71.1% (18) | +17.8% (4) | +9.6 (36) | 38.0 (10) |
37) J. Reed ’09 | 27/31 | 87.1% (27) | 77.3% (65) | +9.8% (40) | +9.1 (37) | 33.2 (73) |
38) R. Lindell ’09 | 28/33 | 84.8% (41) | 75.7% (52) | +9.1% (46) | +9.0 (38) | 32.7 (78) |
39) O. Mare ’09 | 24/26 | 92.3% (6) | 80.8% (88) | +11.5% (33) | +9.0 (39) | 33.4 (69) |
40) D. Carpenter ’08 | 22/26 | 84.6% (43) | 73.5% (33) | +11.1% (36) | +8.7 (40) | 37.3 (14) |
41) R. Lindell ’08 | 30/38 | 78.9% (72) | 71.4% (20) | +7.6% (50) | +8.6 (41) | 36.4 (27) |
42) D. Carpenter ’10 | 30/41 | 73.2% (88) | 66.6% (5) | +6.6% (55) | +8.1 (42) | 36.8 (21) |
43) D. Akers ’10 | 33/41 | 80.5% (65) | 74.1% (39) | +6.4% (59) | +7.9 (43) | 34.0 (60) |
44) P. Dawson ’09 | 17/19 | 89.5% (16) | 76.0% (55) | +13.5% (21) | +7.7 (44) | 33.7 (65) |
45) J. Brown ’09 | 19/24 | 79.2% (71) | 68.5% (10) | +10.7% (39) | +7.7 (45) | 39.1 (6) |
46) G. Hartley ’09 | 14/16 | 87.5% (25) | 71.9% (25) | +15.6% (13) | +7.5 (46) | 35.4 (39) |
47) N. Kaeding ’09 | 32/38 | 84.2% (47) | 77.7% (68) | +6.5% (56) | +7.4 (47) | 32.2 (87) |
48) S. Janikowski ’08 | 24/30 | 80.0% (68) | 72.0% (26) | +8.0% (49) | +7.2 (48) | 33.0 (76) |
49) J. Scobee ’10 | 22/28 | 78.6% (74) | 70.2% (12) | +8.3% (48) | +7.0 (49) | 38.2 (9) |
50) M. Crosby ’08 | 27/34 | 79.4% (69) | 72.8% (31) | +6.6% (54) | +6.8 (50) | 35.1 (41) |
51) D. Rayner ’10 | 13/16 | 81.3% (60) | 67.4% (6) | +13.9% (18) | +6.7 (51) | 39.8 (5) |
52) N. Kaeding ’08 | 29/34 | 85.3% (37) | 78.9% (76) | +6.4% (57) | +6.5 (52) | 32.4 (82) |
53) N. Kaeding ’10 | 23/28 | 82.1% (55) | 74.8% (46) | +7.4% (51) | +6.2 (53) | 36.8 (20) |
54) M. Prater ’09 | 30/35 | 85.7% (32) | 79.8% (82) | +5.9% (63) | +6.2 (54) | 33.8 (64) |
55) M. Stover ’08 | 31/37 | 83.8% (50) | 78.3% (74) | +5.5% (65) | +6.1 (55) | 31.7 (88) |
56) R. Gould ’10 | 25/30 | 83.3% (51) | 76.6% (58) | +6.7% (53) | +6.1 (56) | 33.4 (68) |
57) J. Nedney ’09 | 17/21 | 81.0% (62) | 71.6% (22) | +9.4% (43) | +5.9 (57) | 37.2 (15) |
58) M. Crosby ’10 | 25/32 | 78.1% (75) | 72.0% (27) | +6.1% (60) | +5.8 (58) | 34.9 (43) |
59) C. Barth ’09 | 14/19 | 73.7% (85) | 64.3% (2) | +9.3% (44) | +5.3 (59) | 41.6 (3) |
60) M. Bryant ’08 | 32/38 | 84.2% (47) | 79.5% (80) | +4.7% (68) | +5.3 (60) | 33.2 (72) |
61) R. Longwell ’10 | 17/18 | 94.4% (2) | 84.8% (94) | +9.6% (41) | +5.2 (61) | 31.4 (91) |
62) A. Vinatieri ’08 | 21/26 | 80.8% (63) | 74.4% (42) | +6.4% (58) | +5.0 (62) | 37.2 (16) |
63) J. Brown ’10 | 33/39 | 84.6% (43) | 80.4% (85) | +4.2% (72) | +4.9 (63) | 35.5 (38) |
64) J. Kasay ’09 | 22/27 | 81.5% (59) | 75.6% (51) | +5.9% (62) | +4.8 (64) | 34.5 (55) |
65) S. Gostkowski ’09 | 26/32 | 81.3% (60) | 76.8% (61) | +4.4% (69) | +4.3 (65) | 34.5 (53) |
66) N. Rackers ’09 | 17/20 | 85.0% (39) | 78.1% (71) | +6.9% (52) | +4.1 (66) | 34.8 (48) |
67) O. Mare ’10 | 28/33 | 84.8% (41) | 80.7% (87) | +4.2% (73) | +4.1 (67) | 31.4 (89) |
68) J. Feely ’08 | 24/28 | 85.7% (32) | 81.0% (90) | +4.7% (67) | +4.0 (68) | 32.4 (83) |
69) J. Hanson ’09 | 21/28 | 75.0% (82) | 70.6% (15) | +4.4% (70) | +3.7 (69) | 36.6 (25) |
70) C. Barth ’10 | 23/28 | 82.1% (55) | 77.8% (69) | +4.4% (71) | +3.7 (70) | 34.9 (44) |
71) R. Lindell ’10 | 16/21 | 76.2% (79) | 70.5% (13) | +5.7% (64) | +3.6 (71) | 33.9 (62) |
72) D. Beuhler ’10 | 24/32 | 75.0% (82) | 71.6% (23) | +3.4% (74) | +3.2 (72) | 36.9 (18) |
73) M. Stover ’09 | 15/18 | 83.3% (51) | 77.4% (66) | +5.9% (61) | +3.2 (73) | 32.3 (85) |
74) L. Tynes ’09 | 27/32 | 84.4% (45) | 81.1% (91) | +3.2% (75) | +3.1 (74) | 34.1 (58) |
75) M. Nugent ’10 | 15/19 | 78.9% (72) | 74.0% (37) | +5.0% (66) | +2.8 (75) | 33.8 (63) |
76) P. Dawson ’10 | 23/28 | 82.1% (55) | 79.4% (79) | +2.7% (76) | +2.3 (76) | 30.2 (93) |
77) G. Hartley ’10 | 23/28 | 82.1% (55) | 79.6% (81) | +2.6% (77) | +2.2 (77) | 34.8 (47) |
78) J. Scobee ’08 | 19/25 | 76.0% (81) | 74.1% (38) | +1.9% (78) | +1.5 (78) | 37.6 (13) |
79) N. Folk ’10 | 32/42 | 76.2% (79) | 75.1% (49) | +1.1% (81) | +1.3 (79) | 33.3 (70) |
80) L. Tynes ’10 | 19/23 | 82.6% (54) | 80.7% (86) | +1.9% (79) | +1.3 (80) | 31.4 (90) |
81) S. Suisham ’09 | 23/29 | 79.3% (70) | 78.1% (72) | +1.2% (80) | +1.0 (81) | 33.1 (75) |
82) S. Suisham ’08 | 26/36 | 72.2% (89) | 71.4% (21) | +0.8% (82) | +0.8 (82) | 36.3 (29) |
83) R. Succop ’10 | 20/26 | 76.9% (76) | 76.2% (56) | +0.7% (83) | +0.6 (83) | 35.1 (42) |
84) B. Cundiff ’09 | 21/26 | 80.8% (63) | 80.8% (89) | 0.0% (84) | 0.0 (84) | 29.9 (94) |
85) M. Prater ’08 | 25/34 | 73.5% (87) | 73.5% (34) | 0.0% (85) | 0.0 (85) | 36.6 (24) |
86) M. Crosby ’09 | 28/38 | 73.7% (85) | 74.1% (40) | –0.4% (86) | –0.5 (86) | 32.4 (84) |
87) J. Reed ’10 | 24/32 | 75.0% (82) | 75.8% (54) | –0.8% (87) | –0.7 (87) | 32.5 (79) |
88) J. Scobee ’09 | 18/28 | 64.3% (92) | 65.7% (4) | –1.4% (88) | –1.2 (88) | 35.8 (32) |
89) S. Graham ’09 | 23/30 | 76.7% (77) | 78.9% (77) | –2.2% (89) | –2.0 (89) | 32.8 (77) |
90) J. Carney ’09 | 13/17 | 76.5% (78) | 84.6% (93) | –8.1% (91) | –4.1 (90) | 31.2 (92) |
91) G. Gano ’10 | 24/35 | 68.6% (90) | 74.2% (41) | –+5.6% (90) | –5.9 (91) | 35.6 (36) |
92) N. Folk ’09 | 18/28 | 64.3% (92) | 75.8% (53) | –11.5% (92) | –9.6 (92) | 34.4 (56) |
93) J. Elam ’09 | 12/19 | 63.2% (94) | 80.1% (83) | –16.9% (94) | –9.6 (93) | 34.7 (49) |
94) K. Brown ’09 | 21/32 | 65.6% (91) | 78.2% (73) | –12.6% (93) | –12.1 (94) | 32.4 (81) |
Stadium difficulty, by average yardage adjustment. Raw yardage is relative to a domed stadium with an average defense. Final yardage is relative to the NFL league-wide average value.
Stadium | Temp. | Wind | Altitude | Defense | Raw | Final |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo | +2.11 | +2.01 | – | –0.13 | +3.98 | +2.57 |
Pittsburgh | +1.87 | +1.04 | – | +0.99 | +3.90 | +2.48 |
Cleveland | +1.98 | +1.24 | – | +0.17 | +3.38 | +1.97 |
Chicago | +1.93 | +1.09 | – | +0.15 | +3.16 | +1.75 |
Green Bay | +2.02 | +0.74 | – | +0.34 | +3.10 | +1.69 |
Cincinnati | +1.25 | +1.64 | – | +0.11 | +3.00 | +1.59 |
Baltimore | +1.28 | +0.49 | – | +0.71 | +2.48 | +1.06 |
New England | +1.41 | +0.68 | – | +0.32 | +2.41 | +1.00 |
San Francisco | +0.67 | +1.89 | – | –0.16 | +2.40 | +0.98 |
Misc. venues | +2.22 | +0.56 | – | –0.41 | +2.38 | +0.97 |
New York (old) | +1.13 | +0.96 | – | +0.27 | +2.36 | +0.94 |
Philadelphia | +1.21 | +0.79 | – | +0.22 | +2.22 | +0.80 |
Kansas City | +1.31 | +1.20 | – | –0.66 | +1.86 | +0.44 |
Dallas (old) | +0.05 | +1.82 | – | –0.09 | +1.78 | +0.36 |
New York (new) | +1.22 | +0.44 | – | +0.10 | +1.75 | +0.34 |
Tennessee | +0.79 | +0.58 | – | +0.22 | +1.59 | +0.17 |
Oakland | +0.79 | +1.02 | – | –0.32 | +1.50 | +0.08 |
Washington | +0.98 | +0.37 | – | +0.05 | +1.41 | –0.01 |
Seattle | +1.33 | +0.49 | – | –0.68 | +1.14 | –0.27 |
Carolina | +0.86 | +0.38 | – | –0.14 | +1.10 | –0.32 |
San Diego | +0.25 | +0.42 | – | +0.17 | +0.85 | –0.57 |
Dallas (new)† | +0.07 | +0.54 | – | +0.14 | +0.75 | –0.67 |
Tampa Bay | –0.27 | +0.77 | – | +0.18 | +0.69 | –0.73 |
Indianapolis † | +0.22 | +0.29 | – | +0.15 | +0.65 | –0.76 |
Houston† | +0.17 | +0.53 | – | –0.10 | +0.60 | –0.81 |
Miami | –0.48 | +0.81 | – | +0.26 | +0.59 | –0.83 |
Jacksonville | +0.07 | +0.80 | – | –0.48 | +0.38 | –1.03 |
New Orleans‡ | – | – | – | +0.24 | +0.24 | –1.17 |
Minnesota‡ | – | – | – | +0.19 | +0.19 | –1.22 |
Atlanta‡ | – | – | – | +0.11 | +0.11 | –1.30 |
St. Louis‡ | – | – | – | –0.44 | –0.44 | –1.85 |
Arizona‡ | – | – | – | –0.70 | –0.70 | –2.12 |
Detroit‡ | – | – | – | –0.89 | –0.89 | –2.31 |
Denver | +1.47 | +0.59 | –3.15 | –0.68 | –1.77 | –3.19 |
†Domed stadium with convertible roof (sometimes closed). ‡Domed stadium with permanent roof (always closed).
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