Abstract
This paper uses a statistical analysis of match sprint outcomes to guide tactical decisions in this highly tactical contest and to provide competitors and coaches with a potential, marginal gain. Logistic regression models are developed to predict the probability of the leading rider winning at different points of the race, based on how the race proceeds up to each point. Key tactics are successfully identified from the models, including how the leading rider might hold the lead and how the following rider might optimize overtaking.
Acknowledgments
This work has been supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of the UK, under grant number EP/F005792/1. We are grateful for the cooperation of the English Institute for Sport for use of the data and the help of Paul Barrett, Mike Hughes and Duncan Locke, and Jan Van Eijden of British Cycling.
References
Allsopp, P. E. and Stephen R. Clarke. 2004. “Rating Teams and Analysing Outcomes in One-Day and Test Cricket.”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A 167: 657–667.10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.00505.xSearch in Google Scholar
Atkinson, G., R. Davison, A. Jeukendrup, and L. Passfield. 2003. “Science and Cycling: Current Knowledge and Future Directions for Research.” Journal of Sports Sciences 21:767–787.10.1080/0264041031000102097Search in Google Scholar PubMed
Atkinson, G., O. Peacock, and L. Passfield. 2007. “Variable versus Constant Power Strategies During Cycling Time-Trials: Prediction of Time Savings Using an Up-to-Date Mathematical Model.” Journal of Sports Sciences, 25: 1001–1009.10.1080/02640410600944709Search in Google Scholar PubMed
Bedford, A. and J. Baglin. 2009. “Evaluating Performance of an Ice Hokey Team Using Interactive Phases of Play.” IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 20: 159–166.10.1093/imaman/dpn019Search in Google Scholar
Craig, N. P. and K. I. Norton. 2001. “Characteristics of Track Cycling.” Sports Medicine 31: 457–468.10.2165/00007256-200131070-00001Search in Google Scholar PubMed
de Koning, J. J., C. Foster, A. Bakkum, S. Kloppenburg, C. Thiel, et al. 2011. “Regulation of Pacing Strategy during Athletic Competition.” PLoS One 6(1):e15863. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0015863.10.1371/journal.pone.0015863Search in Google Scholar PubMed PubMed Central
Dobson, A. J. and A. G. Barnett. 2008. An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models. London: CRC Press.10.1201/9780367807849Search in Google Scholar
Fearing, D., J. Acimovic, and S. Graves. 2011. “How to Catch a Tiger: Understanding Putting Performance on the PGA TOUR.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 7(1).10.2202/1559-0410.1268Search in Google Scholar
Gramacy, R., S. Jensen, and M. Taddy. 2013. “Estimating Player Contribution in Hockey with Regularized Logistic Regression.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 9: 97–111.10.1515/jqas-2012-0001Search in Google Scholar
Leitner, C., A. Zeileis, and K. Hornik. 2011. “Bookmaker Concensus and Agreement for the UEFA Champions League.” IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 22: 183–194.10.1093/imaman/dpq016Search in Google Scholar
Magnus, J. and F. Klaassen. 2008. Myths in Tennis. Statistical Thinking in Sports. edited by J. Albert and R. H. Koning. Chapman & Hall/CRC (Taylor & Francis Group), pp. 217–240.Search in Google Scholar
McHale, I. and M. Asif. 2013. “Modelling One Day International Cricket Match Outcomes in Play.” Submitted for publication.Search in Google Scholar
Moffatt, J., P. Scarf, K. Zhang, L. Passfield, and I. Mchale. 2009. An analysis of strategy in the sprint cycle race in track cycling. Proceedings of the I.M.A. 2nd International Conference on Mathematics in Sport. Groningen, The Netherlands: University of Groningen, pp. 106–112.Search in Google Scholar
Nagelkerke, N. J. D. 1991. “A Note on a General Definition of the Coefficient of Determination.” Biometrika 78: 691–692.10.1093/biomet/78.3.691Search in Google Scholar
Scarf, P. A. and S. Akhtar. 2011. “An Analysis of Strategy in the First Three Innings in Test Cricket: Declaration and The Follow-On.” Journal of the Operational Research Society 62: 1931–1940.10.1057/jors.2010.169Search in Google Scholar
Scarf, P. A. and X. Shi. 2005. “Modelling Match Outcomes and Decision Support for Setting a Final Innings Target in Test Cricket.” IMA Journal Management Mathematics 16: 161–178.10.1093/imaman/dpi010Search in Google Scholar
Scarf P. A., X. Shi, and S. Akhtar. 2011. “The Distribution of Runs Scored and Batting Strategy in Test Cricket.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 174: 471–497.10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00672.xSearch in Google Scholar
Schwertman, N. C., K. L. Schenk, and B. C. Holbrook. 1996. “More Probability Models for the NCAA Regional Basketball Tournaments.” The American Statistician, 50: 34–38.Search in Google Scholar
Thomas, K., M. R. Stone, K. G. Thompson, A. S. Gibson, and L. Ansley. 2012. “The Effect of Self- Even- and Variable-Pacing Strategies on the Physiological and Perceptual Response to Cycling.” European Journal of Applied Physiology 112: 3069–3078.10.1007/s00421-011-2281-9Search in Google Scholar PubMed
Tissot. 2009. Flying times. http://www.tissottiming.com/.Search in Google Scholar
UCI. 2009. Cycling. http://www.uci.ch/.Search in Google Scholar
Yeung, S. S., E. W. Yeung, and T. W. Wong. 2001. “Marathon Finishers and Non-finishers Characteristics: A Preamble to Success.” Journal of Sports Medicine and Physical Fitness 41: 170–176.Search in Google Scholar
©2014 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin/Boston
