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Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter May 15, 2014

Skill importance in women’s soccer

  • Matthew Heiner EMAIL logo , Gilbert W. Fellingham and Camille Thomas

Abstract

Soccer analytics often follow one of two approaches: 1) regression models on number of shots taken or goals scored to predict match winners, or 2) spatial and/or temporal analysis of plays for evaluation of strategy. We propose a new model to evaluate skill importance in soccer. Play by play data were collected on 22 NCAA Division I Women’s Soccer matches with a new skill notation system. Using a Bayesian approach, we model play sequences as discrete absorbing Markov chains. Using posterior distributions, we estimate the probability of 35 distinct offensive skills leading to a shot during a single possession.


Corresponding author: Matthew Heiner, Statistics, Brigham Young University, 223 TMCB Provo, UT 84602, USA, Tel.: +8012056687, e-mail:

  1. 1

    The original system is given in Table A.1 in the appendix.

  2. 2

    When comparing skills, we refer to the posterior probability that pscop is greater for one skill than another as the posterior probability of separation between the two skills.

Acknowledgments

We are grateful to the Editor-in-Chief, Associate Editor, referees, and all other editing contributors whose suggestions have enhanced this paper.

Appendix

Additional Tables

Table A.1

Original notation system introduced in Thomas et al. (2009) for identifying and rating the effects of skills performed during soccer matches.

Pass
Performance score
   7 The pass results in a scoring opportunity
   6The pass results in a ball in the “mixer”
   5The pass results in forward (penetrating) play
   4The pass results in a square play
   3The pass results in back play
   2The pass is deflected out of bounds/player is fouled
   1The pass results in a 50/50 ball to the opponents
   0The pass results in an immediate loss of possession
Dribble
Performance score
   4The dribble results in a scoring opportunity
   3The dribble is toward the opponent’s goal (penetrating)
   2The dribble is toward own goal or square
   1The dribble results in a deflection out of bounds/player is fouled
   0The dribble results in an immediate loss of possession
First touch
Performance score
   5The first touch results in a scoring opportunity
   4The first touch results in penetrating play
   3The first touch results in a square play
   2The first touch results in a back play
   1The first touch is deflected out of bounds/player is fouled
   0The first touch results in an immediate loss of possession
Defensive tactics
Performance score
   8Challenge results in possession won; direct play in the attacking third
   7Challenge results in possession won; direct play in the middle third
   6Challenge results in possession won; direct play in the defensive third
   5Challenge results in possession; indirect play/forced errors out of bounds
   4Challenge with delay results in a ball being played indirectly
   3Challenge with delay, but the opponents still penetrate
   2Challenge but no delay, and the opponents penetrate
   1Challenged a 50/50 ball, but possession is not regained
   0Player did not provide immediate chase or chase results in a foul

Note that this system includes defensive skills, which were omitted from our offensive-oriented analysis. Also, the system includes no rating system for shots taken.

Table A.2

All transient states with their possible transitions.

StatePossible transitions from the state
Pass 5–8Shot 0–3; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Pass 4Fouled
Pass 3Deflected OB
Pass 1.5Shot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Pass 1Shot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Pass 0Turnover; Bad Turnover
First-touch Pass 7–8Shot 0–3; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
First-touch Pass 5–6Shot 0–3; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5; Goal Kick; Goal Kick 0, 3; Goalie Throw; Goalie Throw 0
First-touch Pass 4Fouled
First-touch Pass 3Deflected OB
First-touch Pass 1.5Shot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
First-touch Pass 1Shot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5; Goal Kick; Goal Kick 0, 3; Goalie Throw; Goalie Throw 0
First-touch Pass 0Turnover; Bad Turnover
Dribbling Touch 5Shot 0–3; Pass 0–1, 3–8; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Dribbling Touch 0–5; Controlling Touch 0–5
Dribbling Touch 3–4Shot 0–3; Pass 0–1, 3–8; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Dribbling Touch 0–5; Controlling Touch 0–5; Goal Kick; Goal Kick 0, 3; Goalie Throw; Goalie Throw 0
Dribbling Touch 2Fouled
Dribbling Touch 1Deflected OB
Dribbling Touch 0Turnover; Bad Turnover
Controlling Touch 3–5Shot 0–3; Pass 0–1, 3–8; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Dribbling Touch 0–5; Controlling Touch 0–5; Goal Kick; Goal Kick 0, 3; Goalie Throw; Goalie Throw 0
Controlling Touch 2Fouled
Controlling Touch 1Deflected OB
Controlling Touch 0Turnover; Bad Turnover
FouledShot 0–3; Free Kick 0–1, 6–8
Deflected OBCorner Kick; Corner Kick 0–1, 3, 8; Goal Kick; Goal Kick 0, 3; Throw-in 0–1, 3, 5–7
Free Kick 6–8Shot 0–3; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Free Kick 1.5Shot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Free Kick 1Shot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Free Kick 0Turnover; Bad Turnover
Corner Kick 8Shot 0–3; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Corner KickShot 0–3; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Corner Kick 3Deflected OB
Corner Kick 1Shot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Corner Kick 0Turnover; Bad Turnover
Goal KickShot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Goal Kick 3Deflected OB
Goal Kick 0Turnover; Bad Turnover
Goalie ThrowShot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Goalie Throw 0Turnover; Bad Turnover
Throw-in 5–7Shot 0–3; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Throw-in 3Deflected OB
Throw-in 1.5Shot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Throw-in 1Shot 0–3; Turnover; Bad Turnover; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Throw-in 0Turnover; Bad Turnover
Kick-off 6–7Shot 0–3; First-touch Pass 0–1, 3–8; Controlling Touch 0–5
Table A.3

Posterior mean estimates and 95% HPD credible intervals for expected sequence length in moves for sequences starting at the skill indicated. The 11,573 observed sequences in the data had a mean length of 3.46 and standard deviation of 3.30 moves.

Expected sequence length
Pass 82.835(2.498, 3.181)
Pass 75.008(4.897, 5.116)
Pass 65.228(5.129, 5.330)
Pass 54.903(4.785, 5.026)
Pass 1.51.171(1.049, 1.309)
Pass 12.092(1.961, 2.231)
First-touch Pass 82.939(2.410, 3.474)
First-touch Pass 75.150(5.038, 5.257)
First-touch Pass 64.962(4.843, 5.079)
First-touch Pass 54.888(4.759, 5.014)
First-touch Pass 1.51.667(1.330, 2.029)
First-touch Pass 12.616(2.526, 2.706)
Dribbling Touch 53.953(3.847, 4.061)
Dribbling Touch 44.489(4.382, 4.597)
Dribbling Touch 35.000(4.876, 5.124)
Controlling Touch 54.613(4.522, 4.707)
Controlling Touch 44.825(4.738, 4.913)
Controlling Touch 35.111(5.012, 5.208)
Fouled3.336(3.135, 3.537)
Deflected OB4.238(4.069, 4.411)
Free Kick 82.020(1.406, 2.706)
Free Kick 75.224(4.905, 5.542)
Free Kick 64.990(4.584, 5.360)
Free Kick 1.51.153(1.059, 1.263)
Free Kick 12.127(1.887, 2.376)
Corner Kick 82.067(1.615, 2.558)
Corner Kick4.476(3.619, 5.264)
Corner Kick 11.405(1.176, 1.661)
Goal Kick2.179(2.063, 2.294)
Goalie Throw5.506(5.296, 5.701)
Throw-in 74.796(4.646, 4.950)
Throw-in 65.313(5.131, 5.484)
Throw-in 55.401(5.162, 5.628)
Throw-in 1.51.720(1.136, 2.412)
Throw-in 12.019(1.888, 2.154)
Kick-off 74.620(4.163, 5.060)
Kick-off 65.273(4.762, 5.761)

Note that these estimates are slightly inflated with respect to the data lengths, as the transition matrix P includes states Fouled and Deflected OB in addition to the skills that led to those states (e.g., Pass 4).

Table A.4

Posterior mean estimates of absorption probabilities to Shot Opportunity (pscop), Turnover (TOV), and Bad Turnover (BTOV) with 95% HPD credible intervals.

pscopTOVBTOV
Pass 80.350(0.278, 0.422)0.448(0.381, 0.516)0.047(0.039, 0.055)
Pass 70.050(0.044, 0.057)0.838(0.829, 0.846)0.089(0.083, 0.095)
Pass 60.052(0.047, 0.058)0.831(0.822, 0.839)0.089(0.083, 0.095)
Pass 50.053(0.045, 0.060)0.831(0.821, 0.841)0.088(0.082, 0.093)
Pass 1.50.022(0.004, 0.044)0.942(0.905, 0.975)0.034(0.010, 0.063)
Pass 10.011(0.009, 0.014)0.898(0.881, 0.915)0.084(0.068, 0.100)
Pass 00.889(0.875, 0.903)0.111(0.097, 0.125)
First-touch Pass 80.387(0.275, 0.501)0.490(0.388, 0.595)0.052(0.041, 0.064)
First-touch Pass 70.044(0.040, 0.049)0.844(0.837, 0.852)0.090(0.085, 0.096)
First-touch Pass 60.052(0.045, 0.059)0.837(0.827, 0.846)0.089(0.084, 0.095)
First-touch Pass 50.049(0.042, 0.056)0.841(0.832, 0.851)0.088(0.082, 0.093)
First-touch Pass 1.50.036(0.006, 0.077)0.900(0.837, 0.956)0.046(0.015, 0.088)
First-touch Pass 10.016(0.014, 0.018)0.900(0.892, 0.909)0.076(0.068, 0.084)
First-touch Pass 00.901(0.889, 0.912)0.099(0.088, 0.111)
Dribble 50.078(0.067, 0.088)0.797(0.784, 0.810)0.087(0.081, 0.094)
Dribble 40.058(0.051, 0.066)0.824(0.814, 0.835)0.090(0.083, 0.096)
Dribble 30.044(0.039, 0.049)0.841(0.832, 0.850)0.091(0.085, 0.097)
Dribble 00.882(0.861, 0.902)0.118(0.098, 0.139)
Controlling Touch 50.071(0.063, 0.079)0.808(0.797, 0.819)0.088(0.081, 0.094)
Controlling Touch 40.055(0.049, 0.061)0.829(0.820, 0.838)0.090(0.084, 0.097)
Controlling Touch 30.046(0.041, 0.051)0.839(0.831, 0.848)0.091(0.085, 0.098)
Controlling Touch 00.906(0.894, 0.917)0.094(0.083, 0.106)
Fouled0.089(0.064, 0.115)0.820(0.788, 0.851)0.047(0.038, 0.059)
Deflected OB0.048(0.036, 0.060)0.859(0.843, 0.875)0.069(0.063, 0.076)
Free Kick 80.428(0.223, 0.643)0.421(0.228, 0.612)0.042(0.022, 0.062)
Free Kick 70.046(0.039, 0.053)0.843(0.833, 0.854)0.089(0.083, 0.095)
Free Kick 60.082(0.050, 0.124)0.766(0.710, 0.817)0.081(0.072, 0.089)
Free Kick 1.50.013(0.000, 0.037)0.964(0.930, 0.991)0.023(0.006, 0.048)
Free Kick 10.010(0.007, 0.014)0.936(0.916, 0.955)0.048(0.032, 0.068)
Free Kick 00.960(0.918, 0.994)0.040(0.006, 0.082)
Corner Kick 80.428(0.296, 0.564)0.320(0.204, 0.436)0.033(0.021, 0.046)
Corner Kick0.230(0.098, 0.370)0.613(0.469, 0.745)0.063(0.047, 0.078)
Corner Kick 10.034(0.005, 0.070)0.940(0.895, 0.978)0.012(0.005, 0.018)
Corner Kick 00.984(0.939, 1.000)0.016(0.000, 0.061)
Goal Kick0.010(0.008, 0.012)0.940(0.932, 0.948)0.045(0.038, 0.053)
Goal Kick 00.937(0.885, 0.982)0.063(0.018, 0.115)
Goalie Throw0.058(0.051, 0.065)0.829(0.817, 0.840)0.086(0.079, 0.093)
Goalie Throw 00.583(0.230, 0.920)0.417(0.080, 0.770)
Throw-in 70.035(0.031, 0.039)0.856(0.848, 0.864)0.091(0.085, 0.096)
Throw-in 60.044(0.039, 0.049)0.846(0.837, 0.854)0.090(0.084, 0.096)
Throw-in 50.050(0.044, 0.057)0.837(0.827, 0.846)0.089(0.083, 0.095)
Throw-in 1.50.006(0.000, 0.012)0.907(0.789, 0.988)0.084(0.011, 0.204)
Throw-in 10.009(0.007, 0.011)0.909(0.892, 0.926)0.078(0.062, 0.095)
Throw-in 00.953(0.918, 0.985)0.047(0.015, 0.082)
Kick-off 70.037(0.029, 0.044)0.855(0.843, 0.866)0.092(0.086, 0.099)
Kick-off 60.042(0.032, 0.051)0.849(0.837, 0.863)0.089(0.084, 0.095)

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Published Online: 2014-5-15
Published in Print: 2014-6-1

©2014 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin/Boston

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