Skip to content
Accessible Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published online by De Gruyter April 27, 2021

The Export of Commodities and the Validity of the Export-Led Growth (ELG) Hypothesis for the Brazilian Economy: An Analysis of the Commodity Boom Period

Aniela Fagundes Carrara and Tiago Luiz Pesquero

Abstract

The present study examines the Brazilian economy in the light of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis, in order to examine if this hypothesis is valid for periods in which commodities occupy a significant part of exports, for this reason, for the period known as the “commodity boom”. In order to address the proposed objective, the estimation method used was the autoregression with vector error correction (VEC) in its structural version. The results suggest that the economic growth that occurred in Brazil during the analysed period does not corroborate the ELG hypothesis, which is endorsed by results obtained in similar studies.


Corresponding author: Aniela Fagundes Carrara, Universidade Federal de Rondonópolis – UFR, Rondonopolis, Brazil, E-mail:

References

Akpan, E. S., E. C. Nwosu, and G. O. Eweke. 2017. “Causality between Non-Oil Export, Financial Sector Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Nigeria.” Journal of Mathematical Finance 7: 39–53. https://doi.org/10.4236/jmf.2017.71002.Search in Google Scholar

Bacchi, M. R. P. 2005 “Formação de preíos no setor sucroalccoleiro da região centro-sul do Brasil: relação com o mercado de combustível fóssil”. In: Encontro Nacional de Economia, 33, 2005, Natal. Anais. Natal: ANPEC.Search in Google Scholar

Bacha, E. 2013. “Bonança externa e desindustrialização: uma análise Do período 2005-2011.” In O futuro da indústria no Brasil: desindustrialização em debate, edited by E. Bacha, and B. M. Baumgarten, 97–120. Rio de Janeiro: Civilização Brasileira.Search in Google Scholar

Barros, G. S. A. C. 2016. “Medindo o crescimento Do agronegócio: Bonança externa e preços relativos.” In Agricultura, transformação produtiva e sustentabilidade, edited by J. E. R. Vieira Filho, J. C. Gasques, and A. X. Y. Carvalho, 219–49. Brasília: IPEA.Search in Google Scholar

Campos, F. M. 2009. “Exportações, crescimento econômico e causalidade: evidências empíricas para o Brasil (1975:1-2008:2).” In Encontro Nacional Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, 7, 2009, São Paulo. Anais. São Paulo: ENABER.Search in Google Scholar

Carvalho, G. N. B. 2015. “A Relação entre as Exportações e o Crescimento Económico: Análise do Caso Português.” In Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia Financeira). Coimbra: Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.Search in Google Scholar

Cruz, A. I. G., A. M. H. Ambrozio, F. P. Puga, F. L. Sousa, and M. M. Nascimento, 2012. “A economia brasileira: conquistas dos últimos dez anos e perspectivas para o futuro” BNDES 60 anos – Perspectivas setoriais, 13–40. Brasília.Search in Google Scholar

Dickey, D., and W. Fuller. 1981. “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root.” Econometrica 49 (4): 1057–72. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517.Search in Google Scholar

Dornbusch, R., S. Fischer, and P. A. Samuelson. 1980. “Heckscher - Ohlin Trade Theory with a Continuum of Goods.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 95: 203–24. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885496.Search in Google Scholar

Elliot, G., T. J. Rothenberg, and J. H. Stock. 1996. “Efficient Test for an Autoregressive Unit Root.” Econometrica 64 (4): 813–36.Search in Google Scholar

Ghatak, S., C. Milner, and U. Utkulu. 1997. “Exports, Export Composition and Growth: Cointegration and Causality Evidence for Malaysia.” Applied Economics 29 (2): 213–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368497327272.Search in Google Scholar

Hatanaka, M. 1996. Time Series Based Econometrics: Unit Roots and Co-Integrations. New York: Oxford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Hodrick, J. R., and Prescott, E. C. 1997. “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 29 (1): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.2307/2953682.Search in Google Scholar

IPEADATA. 2018. Preços IPCA. Also available at: .Search in Google Scholar

Johansen, S. 1988. “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12 (2/3): 231–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3.Search in Google Scholar

Kónya, L. 2006. “Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach.” Economic Modelling 23 (6): 978–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008.Search in Google Scholar

Krugman, P. 1984. “Import Protection as Export Promotion.” In Monopolistic Competition in International Trade, edited by H. Kierzkowski. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Kwiatkowski, D., P. C. B. Phillips, P. Schmidt, and Y. Shin. 1992. “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root.” Journal of Econometrics 54, 159–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-y.Search in Google Scholar

Kumari, D., and N. Malhotra. 2014. “Export-Led Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Analysis.” Journal of Economics and Development Studies 2 (2): 14.Search in Google Scholar

Lancaster, K. 1980. “Intra-Industry Trade under Perfect Monopolistic Competition.” Journal of International Economics 10: 151–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(80)90052-5.Search in Google Scholar

Machado, K. P. 2017. “Impacto das exportações no crescimento econômico: Análise Do caso brasileiro.” In Dissertação (Mestre em Gestão e Desenvolvimento Rural), 58. Francisco Beltrão: Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná.Search in Google Scholar

Maddala, G. S., and I. M. Kim, 1998. “Units Roots, Cointegration and Structural Change”. 505. Cambridge: MacGraw – Hill.Search in Google Scholar

Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento – MAPA. 2018. Estatísticas de Comércio Exterior do Agronegócio Brasileiro -Agrostat. Also available at: .Search in Google Scholar

Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços – MDIC. 2018. Balança Comercial. Also available at .Search in Google Scholar

Munduruca, D. F. V., and J. R. Santana. 2012. “Comércio Exterior como Estratégia de Crescimento Econômico: Uma Proposta de Priorização de Produtos Exportáveis para a Economia Sergipana.” Revista Econômica do Nordeste 43 (3): 611–30.Search in Google Scholar

Myovella, G. A., F. Paul, and R. T. Rwakalaza. 2015. “Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Agricultural Exports in Tanzania.” African Journal of Economic Review 3 (2): 11.Search in Google Scholar

Ohlin, B. 1933. Interregional and International Trade. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Osterwald-Lenum, M. 1992. “A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likehood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics 54 (3): 461–72. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1992.tb00013.x.Search in Google Scholar

Palley, T. I. 2011. “The Rise and Fall of Export-led Growth.” In Working Paper no. 675, 24. Annandale-on-Hudson: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College.Search in Google Scholar

Samuelson, P. A. 1948. “International Trade and Equalisation of Factor Prices.” Economic Journal 58: 163–84. https://doi.org/10.2307/2225933.Search in Google Scholar

Schwert, G. W. 1989. “Test for unit roots: A Monte Carlo investigation”. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 7(2): 147–59.Search in Google Scholar

Shafiullah, M., S. Selvanathan, and A. Naranpanawa. 2017. “The Role of Export Composition in Export-Led Growth in Australia and Its Regions.” Economic Analysis and Policy 53: 62–76.Search in Google Scholar

Tessema, B. T. 2017. “The Relationship between Import, Exports and Economic Growth in Ethiopia.” Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research 3 (1): 4.Search in Google Scholar

Vieira, E. R., and C. L. Xavier. 2017. “O papel da China no crescimento da economia brasileira: Uma análise contrafactual da hipótese Do Export – Led – Growth.” Economia Aplicada 21 (3): 387–415.Search in Google Scholar

Received: 2020-08-24
Revised: 2021-01-06
Accepted: 2021-04-06
Published Online: 2021-04-27

© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston