Abstract
The portmanteau Brexit describes the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) which will cause a shift of power in the European institutions. The departure of one of the largest EU members will affect the voting power of member countries in the European Council significantly. This Council is the central hub of political decision making in the EU, defining the overall political direction and priorities and setting the policy agenda for the entirety of the EU. Using the Banzhaf power index, we have measured the voting power before and after the Brexit and analyzed the increasing power of the members of the Visegrád Group compared to other European states. We have found that there is growth in the voting power of all Visegrád states, with Poland experiencing the biggest increase. However, the extent by which the Visegrád Group will profit from this statistically growing power depends on the coordination of their voting behavior in the future.
References
[1] A strong Europe in a world of uncertainties.” https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/EN/Europa/Aktuell/160624-BM-AM-FRA_ST.html (accessed July 26, 2016).Search in Google Scholar
[2] Banzhaf, John F. III. 1965. “Weighted Voting Doesn’t Work”: A Mathematical Analysis.” Rutgers Law Review 19: 317-43.Search in Google Scholar
[3] Banzhaf, John F. III. 1966. “Multi-Member Electoral Districts. Do They Violate the “One Man, One Vote” Principle.” The Yale Law Journal 75 (8): 1309-1338.10.2307/795047Search in Google Scholar
[4] Connolly, Kate. 2016. “Eastern bloc countries make demands for less centralised Europe”. The Guardian, July 4, 2016. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/04/eastern-bloc-countries-demand-less-centralised-europe (accessed July 26, 2016).Search in Google Scholar
[5] Felsenthal, Dan S., and Moshe Machover. 2001: “The Treaty of Nice and qualified majority voting.” Social Choice and Welfare 18: 431-464.10.1007/s003550100137Search in Google Scholar
[6] Felsenthal, Dan S., and Moshe Machover. 2009: “The QM Rule in the Nice and Lisbon Treaties: Future Projections.” Homo Oeconomicus 26 (3/4): 318-319.Search in Google Scholar
[7] Gollner, Ralf Thomas. 2016. “The Political and Economic Effects of the Eastward Expansion of the European Union for Germany” In Cooperation in Asia and Disintegration in Europe? Proceedings of a German-Korean Academic Dialog, ed. Harald Bergbauer and Yeonho Lee. Baden-Baden: Nomos, 99-134.Search in Google Scholar
[8] Hix, Simon, Sara Hagemann, and Doru Frantescu. 2016. “Would Brexit Matter? The UK’s voting records in the Council and the European Parliament.” VoteWatch Europe, Brussels. http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/66261/ (accessed: July 27, 2016).Search in Google Scholar
[9] Irwin, Gregor. 2015. “BREXIT: the impact on the UK and the EU”. London: Global Counsel https://www.global-counsel.co.uk/sites/default/files/special-reports/downloads/GlobalCounsel_Impact_of_Brexit.pdf (accessed: July 28, 2016).Search in Google Scholar
[10] Koczy, Laszlo A. 2016. “How Brexit affects European Union power distribution.” Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Discussion papers MT-DP - 2016/11.Search in Google Scholar
[11] Konig, Thomas, and Thomas Brauniger. 2000. Governing the Enlarged European Union: Accession Scenarios and Institutional Reform.” Central European Political Science Review 1 (1): 42-62.Search in Google Scholar
[12] Koske, Isabell, Isabelle Wanner, Rosamaria Bitetti, and Omar Barbiero. 2015. “The 2013 update of the OECD’s database on product market regulation: Policy insights for OECD and non-OECD countries”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5js3f5d3n2vl-en (accessed July 26, 2016).10.1787/5js3f5d3n2vl-enSearch in Google Scholar
[13] Leech, Dennis. 2001. “Designing the voting system for the Council of the European Union.” Public Choice 113: 437-464.10.1023/A:1020877015060Search in Google Scholar
[14] Napel, Stefan, and Mika Wildgren. 2011. “Strategic versus non-strategic voting power in the EU Council of Ministers: the consultation procedure.” Social Choice and Welfare 37: 511-541.10.1007/s00355-010-0502-5Search in Google Scholar
[15] Oliver, Tim. 2016. “European and international views of Brexit.” Journal of European Public Policy, DOI: 10.1080/13501763.2016.1174534: 1-8.Search in Google Scholar
[16] Treaty of Lisbon amending the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty establishing the European Community, signed at Lisbon, 13 December 2007.” Official Journal of the European Union 50(C306): 1-229.Search in Google Scholar
© 2017
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.
