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Neuere Erkenntnisse über Inflationserwartungen – Eine Systematik

Eine mikroökonomische Betrachtung des Erwartungsbildungs-prozesses und deren Konsequenzen auf die Geldpolitik

Timo Pascal Kaiser
From the journal ORDO

Zusammenfassung

Viele Probleme makroökonomischer Modelle können gelöst werden, wenn bisherige Erwartungskonzepte durch subjektive Inflationserwartungen aus Umfragen ersetzt werden. Subjektive Erwartungen entsprechen nicht Rationalen Erwartungen, sondern weisen eine Koexistenz verschiedener Erwartungsmodelle auf. Zur Erklärung wird die Erwartungsbildung als mikroökonomischer Prozess dargestellt. Dabei maximiert das Individuum seinen Nutzen gegeben kognitiver Restriktion sowie Barrieren beim Erwerb von Informationen. Bisherige Konzepte der Erwartungsbildung können in dieses Schema eingeordnet werden. Zudem passen bisherige empirische Erkenntnisse auf der Mikroebene in diesen Theorierahmen. Durch diese übergreifende Theorie können Schlussfolgerungen für einen Ordnungsrahmen gesetzt werden, der die Fehler der Inflationserwartungen reduziert. Zudem können dadurch weitere Forschungshypothesen aufgestellt werden zur Erklärung der Inflationserwartungen.

Abstract

Many puzzles in macroeconomics can be solved by including subjective inflation expectations instead of other expectation concepts. These subjective expectations are not equivalent to Rational Expectations but there seem to be a coexistence of different expectation concepts at the same time. To explain this, expectation formation is described by a microeconomic process. Individuals maximize utility subject to cognitive restrictions and barriers by intaking information. Former concepts can be included in this scheme. Additionally former empirical findings fit in this theoretical frame. By using this theory conclusions for a regulatory framework can be described to reduce inflation expectation errors. Further research hypothesis can be derived from this to explain inflation expectations.

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Online erschienen: 2020-06-23
Erschienen im Druck: 2020-06-22

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