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Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg November 20, 2023

Eine Überprüfung der Informationsquellen für Inflationserwartungen

Sind die Informationsquellen zur Bildung von Inflationserwartungen systematisch verzerrt?

An investigation of the sources of information for inflation expectations
  • Timo Pascal Kaiser EMAIL logo
From the journal ORDO

Zusammenfassung

Bisherige Befunde zeigen, dass Inflationserwartungen nicht vollständig der Hypothese Rationaler Erwartungen folgen. Statt kognitiver Begrenzungen sollen hier Mängel bei den Informationsquellen als Ursache beleuchtet werden. Die Ungewissheit über die wahren Zusammenhänge in einer Volkswirtschaft birgt für sich ein Informationsproblem. Informationsquellen können sich widersprechen, was eine Abwägung nötig macht. In einem Review wird der aktuelle Stand über die Anreize von Medien, privatwirtschaftlichen und staatlichen Prognoseinstituten sowie Zentralbanken berichtet, die zur Produktion verzerrter Informationen führen, welche die Inflationserwartung dadurch beeinflussen können. Aufgrund von Selektionseffekten sind die eigenen sowie Wahrnehmungen von Personen aus dem sozialen Umfeld keine zuverlässigen Quellen. Das Problem der verzerrten Informationsquellen für die Inflationserwartungen erweist sich als schwer zu lösen.

Summary

An investigation of the sources of information for inflation expectations. Former findings show that inflation expectations don’t follow the Rational Expectation Hypothesis. Instead of cognitive limitations lacks by the sources of information are considered as reason in this paper. The uncertainty about true interrelations in an economy is an information problem for itself. Sources of information can contradict each other, so weighting is necessary. In a review the current state of research about incentives for medias, for private and for public forecasters, and for central banks which leads to the production of inflation expectation biasing information is presented. Due to selection effects the own impressions and people of the social environment aren’t reliable sources as well. Solving the problem of biased sources of information for inflation expectations is difficult.


Anmerkung

Hiermit erkläre ich, dass ich bei der Erstellung des Beitrages den vom Verein für Socialpolitik in seinem Ethikkodex erarbeiteten Regeln guter wissenschaftlicher Praxis gefolgt bin. Ich habe keine Mittel Dritter erhalten. Es liegen keine Interessenskonflikte vor.


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Online erschienen: 2023-11-20
Erschienen im Druck: 2023-11-01

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