Abstract
How can we understand the origins and resilience of Colombia’s long-running insurgency? A leading theory emphasizes the feasibility of insurgency, identifying drug trafficking as the main culprit. I propose an alternative theory of civil violence that emphasizes how bargaining over property rights in the face of deep vertical inequality deepens the subordinate group’s social identity, heightens its sense of grievance, and facilitates collective violence. An examination of the history of land reform struggles in Colombia echoes this pattern. Struggles over land reforms in the 1920s and 1930s created new patterns of collective action that helped sustain campesino groups in the “independent republics” of the 1950s and 1960s and the creation of the FARC in 1964. This analysis suggests that the Colombian state’s lack of credibility on issues of land reform demands a significant third-party enforcement of any peace agreement and confidence-building measures between the FARC and the Colombian government.
- 1
The continuity of conflict in Colombia should not disguise variation in its intensity across space and time, as micro-analysis of Colombia shows (Daly 2012; Rodríguez and Daza 2012; Vargas 2012).
- 2
The vigor of the debate can be seen in the frequency with which authors challenged each others’ findings in subsequent journals.
- 3
See Daly (2012) for an important recent exception.
- 4
Sánchez, López-Uribe, and Fazio (2010) come to different conclusions regarding the proportion of land granted to peasants, finding that peasants received 45% of land titled between 1853 and 1930. These calculations, however, assume that the average farm granted to peasants averaged 511 hectares, over ten times as large as what Palacios (1980) would classify as medium-sized.
- 5
Income inequality obviously does not capture perfectly the dynamics of land inequality, but given the context of continuing land inequality, deteriorating income inequality is suggestive.
- 6
This discussion is based on regression analysis using replication data from Daly (2012). Results are described in the appendix.
- 7
Napalm is a chemical agent used in incendiary bombing. It can cause severe burns, intense pain, and asphyxiation. The United Nations Convention on Certain Chemical Weapons (CCW), passed in 1980, bans its use against civilian populations.
- 8
Data are available at http://www.prio.no/Journals/Journal/?x=2&content=replicationData.
- 9
Results available upon request.
I thank William Clark, Robert Franzese, Catherine LeGrand, James Morrow, Irfan Nooruddin, Juan Vargas, and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments. The research contributing to this article was supported by a J. William Fulbright Scholarship. All errors are my own.
Appendix
This appendix provides details on the empirical claim made in Section 4.2 that “municipalities with higher land values and access to roads also had higher rates of inequality.” This is part of a larger argument that Colombian elites were successful in excluding peasants from access to disputed land, even after land reform in 1936. If we assume that elites held the legal and coercive power to create facts on the ground and that their motivation to do so was directly correlated with the economic value of land, then we should observe greater inequality in places with higher land values.
Daly (2012) fortunately has collected municipal-level data on land value and inequality, part of a larger data project, that permits a test of this intution. Her data include monthly observations for 1076 municipalities between 1964 and 1984.8
Daly (2012) measures inequality on a 100-point scale. Two measures contained in Daly’s data should correlative positively with this dependent variable. First, she measures land value on 100-point scale, using data on the “geochemical and microbiological aspects” (475) of land at the municipal level. Second, Daly (2012) collects data on the logged total length of roads, railroads, and accessible waterways. The availability of transportation, in addition to the intrinsic capacity of the soil to support crops, should increase the economic value of land.
I also include several variables as controls: the distance from Bogot’s, existence valuable gem and mineral deposits, mountainous terrain, and proximity to an international border.
The data in Daly (2012) are time-series cross-sectional (TSCS), but none of the measures used in this regression vary across time. A simple ordinary least squares regression (OLS), is the simplest and most proper choice to test the link between land value and inequality. Results are described in Table A1 above; standard errors are in parentheses. Two models separately estimate inequality as a function of land value and roads, with only gems, population, and international borders as control variables in an effort to minimize missing data. Both land values and roads are positively and significantly correlated with inequality. The last model includes the full set of control variables – adding mountains and distance to Bogotá – and both land value and roads, reducing the sample size. Again, both roads and land value exacerbate municipality-level inequality.
Land value and land inequality.
Basic models | Full Model | ||
---|---|---|---|
Land values | Roads | ||
Land values | 0.44*** | 0.30*** | |
(0.06) | (0.07) | ||
Roads | 1.09** | 1.68** | |
(0.50) | (0.66) | ||
Gems | –3.74 | –5.58** | –6.04 |
(4.06) | (2.49) | (4.28) | |
Population | 1.34* | 1.87*** | 1.05 |
(0.72) | (0.67) | (0.84) | |
International border | –9.84*** | –14.61*** | 9.09 |
(3.68) | (3.35) | (9.95) | |
Mountains | –10.09*** | ||
(2.20) | |||
Distance to Bogotá | 0.0014 | ||
(0.01) | |||
Constant | 25.45*** | 25.55*** | 26.67*** |
(6.76) | (7.11) | (9.48) | |
n | 676 | 669 | 417 |
*p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.
In results not reported here, I also estimate a model that includes a control variable for population density instead of total population and a multiplicative interaction term of land value and population density. The model suggests that the impact of land value on inequality is substantively stronger and more statistically significant in areas with lower population density. This suggests that the connection between land value and inequality was strongest in rural areas, again supporting the point made in Section 4.2 of the article.9
Reference
Daly, S.Z., (2012), Organizational Legacies of Violence: Conditions Favoring Insurgency Onset in Colombia, 1964–1984, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 49, pp. 473–491.
References
Acemoglu, D., Robinson, J.A., (2006), Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.10.1017/CBO9780511510809Search in Google Scholar
Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J.A., (2006), Institutions as the Fundamental Cause of Long-run Growth, in Handbook of Economic Growth, volume 1A, North Holland, pp. 385–472.Search in Google Scholar
Albertus, M., Kaplan, O., (2013), Land Reform as a Counterinsurgency Policy: Evidence from Colombia, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 57, pp. 198–231.Search in Google Scholar
Alchian, A., Demsetz, H., (1973), The Property Right Paradigm, The Journal of Economic History, vol. 33, pp. 16–27.Search in Google Scholar
Anderson, T.L., Hill, P.J., (2003), The Evolution of Property Rights, in Anderson Terry L., McChesney, Fred S., (eds.), Property Rights: Cooperation, Conflict, and Law, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.10.1515/9780691190365Search in Google Scholar
Angrist, J.D., Kugler, A.D., (2008), Rural Windfall or a New Resource Curse? Coca, Income, and Civil Conflict in Colombia, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 90, pp. 191–215.Search in Google Scholar
Boix, C., (2008), Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in the Contemporary World, World Politics, vol. 60, pp. 390–437.Search in Google Scholar
Brittain, J.J., (2010), Revolutionary Social Change in Colombia: The Origin and Direction of the FARC-EP, Pluto Press, New York, NY.Search in Google Scholar
Cardenas, M., (2001), Economic Growth in Colombia: A Reversal of ‘Fortune’? CID Working Paper No. 83.Search in Google Scholar
Cederman, L.-E., Weidmann, N.B., Gleditsch, K.S., (2011), Horizontal Inequalities and Ethno-nationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison, American Political Science Review, vol. 105, pp. 478–495.Search in Google Scholar
Chernick, M., (2007), The Farc-ep: From Liberal Guerrillas to Marxist Rebels to Postcold War Insurgents, in Heiberg M., OLeary B., Tirman J., (eds.), Terror, Insurgencies, and the State: Ending Protracted Conflicts, University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, PA, pp. 51–82.Search in Google Scholar
Coase, R.H., (1960), The Problem of Social Cost, Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 3, pp. 1–44.Search in Google Scholar
Collier, P., Sambanis, N., (eds.) (2005), Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, Volume 2: Europe Central Asia, and Other Regions, The World Bank, Washington, DC.10.1596/978-0-8213-6049-1Search in Google Scholar
Collier, P., Elliott, V., Hegre, H., Hoeffler, A., Reynal-Querol, M., Sambanis, N., (2003), Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy, World Bank, Washington, DC.10.1037/e504012013-001Search in Google Scholar
Collier, P., Hoeffler, A., Rohner, D., (2009), Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility in Civil War, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 61, pp. 1–27.Search in Google Scholar
Colombia, (1931), Memorias del Ministro de Industrias, Report of Colombian government.Search in Google Scholar
Cramer, C., (2003), Does Inequality Cause Conflict?, Journal of International Development, vol. 15, pp. 397–412.Search in Google Scholar
Daly, S.Z., (2012), Organizational Legacies of Violence: Conditions Favoring Insurgency Onset in Colombia, 1964–1984, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 49, pp. 473–491.Search in Google Scholar
Diskin, M., (1996), Distilled Conclusions: The Disappearance of the Agrarian Question in El Salva, Latin American Research Review, vol. 31, pp. 111–126.Search in Google Scholar
Duckitt, J., (1994), The Social Psychology of Prejudice, Praeger Publishers, Westport, CT.Search in Google Scholar
Fearon, J.D., (2004), Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 41, pp. 275–301.Search in Google Scholar
Fearon, J.D., Laitin, D.D., (2003), Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War, American Political Science Review, vol. 97, pp. 75–90.Search in Google Scholar
Gilhodès, P., (1970), Agrarian Struggles in Colombia, in Agrarian Problems and Peasant Movements in Latin America, Doubleday, pp. 407–451.Search in Google Scholar
Grossman, H.I., (1991), A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections, American Economic Review, vol. 81, pp. 912–921.Search in Google Scholar
Gurr, T.R., (1970), Why Men Rebel, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.Search in Google Scholar
Haber, S., Razo, A., Maurer, N., (2003), The Politics of Property Rights: Political Instability, Credible Commitments, and Economic Growth in Mexico, 1876–1929, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.10.1017/CBO9780511615610Search in Google Scholar
Hirshleifer, J., (1991), The Paradox of Power, Economics and Politics, vol. 3, pp. 177–200.Search in Google Scholar
Huntington, S.P., (1968), Politial Order in Changing Socities, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.Search in Google Scholar
Jensen, P.S., Sørensen, T.V., (2012), Land Inequality and Conflict in Latin America in the Twentieth Century, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 23, pp. 77–94.Search in Google Scholar
Kalmanovitz, S., (2003), Economía y nación: una breve historia de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia: Editorial Norma.Search in Google Scholar
Kalyvas, S.N., (2006), The Logic of Violence in Civil War, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.10.1017/CBO9780511818462Search in Google Scholar
Knight, J., (1992), Insititutions and Social Conflict, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.Search in Google Scholar
Leech, G., (2011), The FARC: The Longest Insurgency, Fernwood Publishing, New York, NY.10.5040/9781350223127Search in Google Scholar
LeGrand, C., (1986), Frontier Expansion and Peasant Protest in Colombia, 1850–1936, University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, New Mexico.Search in Google Scholar
LeGrand, C., (1992), Agrarian Antecedents of the Violence, in Bergquist C.W., Naranda R.P., Sánchez G.G., (eds.), Violence in Colombia: The Contemporary Crisis in Historical Perspective, SR Books, Wilmington, DE, pp. 31–50.Search in Google Scholar
LeGrand, C., (2003), The Colombian Crisis in Historical Perspective, Canadian Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Studies, vol. 28, pp. 165–209.Search in Google Scholar
Libecap, G.D., (1989), Contracting for Property Rights, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.10.1017/CBO9780511664120Search in Google Scholar
Machado, A., (1988), El café: de la aparcería al capitalismo, Tercer Mundo Editores, Bogotá, Colombia.Search in Google Scholar
Martínez, M.A., (1939), Regimen de tieras en colombia: antecedents of law 200 of 1936, Publication of the Ministry of the National Economy, Bogotá, Colombia.Search in Google Scholar
Marulanda, E., (1991), Colonización conflicto: las lecciones del Sumapaz, Tercer Mundo Editores, Bogotá, Colombia.Search in Google Scholar
Midlarsky, M.I., (1988), Rulers and the Ruled: Patterned Inequality and the Onset of Mass Political Violence, American Political Science Review, vol. 82, pp. 491–509.Search in Google Scholar
Molano, A., (1992), Violence and Land Colonization, in Bergquist C.W., Naranda R.P., Sánchez G.G., (eds.), Violence in Colombia: The Contemporary Crisis in Historical Perspective, SR Books, Wilmington, DE, pp. 195–216.Search in Google Scholar
Moore, B.J., (1966), Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Modern World, Beacon Press, Boston, MA.Search in Google Scholar
Muller, E.N., Seligson, M.A., (1987), Inequality and Insurgency, American Political Science Review, vol. 81, pp. 425–452.Search in Google Scholar
Muller, E.N., Seligson, M.A., der Fu, H., Midlarsky, M.I., (1989), Land Inequality and Political Violence, American Political Science Review, vol. 83, pp. 577–596.Search in Google Scholar
Neuman, W., (2012), Rebel Group in Colombia Announces Cease-fire, New York Times, November 19, Accessed at www.nytimes.com.Search in Google Scholar
North, D.C., (1981), Structure and Change in Economic History, W.W. Norton & Company, New York, NY.Search in Google Scholar
Paige, J.M., (1996), Land Reform and agrarian Revolution in El Salvador: Comment on Seligson and Diskin, Latin American Research Review, vol. 31, pp. 127–139.Search in Google Scholar
Palacios, M., (1980), Coffee in Colombia, 1850–1970: An Economic, Social, and Political History, Cambridge University Press, Oxford, UK.10.1017/CBO9780511572869Search in Google Scholar
Palacios, M., (2006), Between Legitimacy and Violence: A History of Colombia, 1875–2002, Duke University Press, translation by Richard Stoller.10.2307/j.ctv1220mknSearch in Google Scholar
Prosterman, R.L., Riedinger, J.M., (1987), Land Reform and Democratic Development, Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD.Search in Google Scholar
Rodríguez, M.A., Daza, N.A., (2012), Determinants of Civil Conflict in Colombia: How Robust Are They?, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 23, pp. 109–131.Search in Google Scholar
Roldán, M., (2002), La Violencia in Antioquia, Colombia, 1946–1953, Duke University Press, Durham, NC.Search in Google Scholar
Ross, M.L., (2004a), What Do We Know about Natural Resources and Civil War?, Journal of Peace Research, vol. 41, no. 3, pp. 337–356.10.1177/0022343304043773Search in Google Scholar
Ross, M.L., (2006), A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds and Civil War, Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 9, pp. 265–300.Search in Google Scholar
Russett, B.M., (1964), Inequality and Instability: The Relation of Land Tenure to Politics, World Politics, vol. 16, pp. 442–454.Search in Google Scholar
Safford, F., Palacios, M., (2002), Colombia: Fragmented Land, Divided Society, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.Search in Google Scholar
Sánchez, G., (1992), The Violence: An interpretive synthesis, in Violence in Colombia: The Contemporary Crisis in Historical Perspective, SR Books, Wilmington, DE, pp. 75–124.Search in Google Scholar
Sánchez, F., Solimano, A., Formisano, M., (2005), Conflict Violence and Crime in Colombia, in Collier P., Sambanis N., (eds.), Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, volume 2: Europe, Central Asia, and Other Regions, The World Bank, pp. 119–159.Search in Google Scholar
Sánchez, F., López-Uribe, M., Fazio, A., (2010), Land Conflicts, Property Rights, and the Rise of the Export Economy in Colombia, 1850–1925, Journal of Economic History, vol. 70, pp. 378–399.Search in Google Scholar
Seligson, M.A., (1995), Thirty Years of Transformation in the Agrarian Structure of El Salvador, 1961–1991, Latin American Research Review, vol. 30, pp. 43–74.Search in Google Scholar
Sened, I., (1997), The Political Institution of Private Property, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.Search in Google Scholar
Sherif, M., (1966), In Common Predicament: Social Psychology of Intergroup Conflict and Cooperation, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, MA.Search in Google Scholar
Solt, F., (2009), Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database, Social Science Quarterly, vol. 90, pp. 231–242.Search in Google Scholar
Stewart, F., (2008), Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: An Introduction and Some Hypotheses, in Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies, Palgrave MacMillan, New York, NY, pp. 3–24.Search in Google Scholar
Tai, H.-C., (1974), Land Reform and Politics: A Comparative Analysis, University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.10.1525/9780520326996Search in Google Scholar
Tajfel, H., Turner, J.C., (1979), An Integrative Theory of Intergroup Conflict, in Austin W.G., Worchel S., (eds.), The Social Psychology of Intergroup Relations, Brooks/Cole Publishing, Monterey, CA, pp. 33–47.Search in Google Scholar
Vargas, J.F., (2012), The Persistent Colombian Conflict: Subnational Analysis of the Duration of Violence, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 23, pp. 203–223.Search in Google Scholar
Walter, B.F., (1997), The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement, International Organization, vol. 51, pp. 335–364.Search in Google Scholar
Wang, T., Dixon, W.J., Muller, E.N., Seligson, M.A. (1993), Inequality and Political Violence Revisited, American Political Science Review, vol. 87, pp. 977–994.Search in Google Scholar
Weinstein, J.M., (2007), Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.10.1017/CBO9780511808654Search in Google Scholar
Wimmer, A., Cederman, L.-E., and Min, B., (2009), Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Dataset, American Sociological Review, vol. 74, pp. 316–337.Search in Google Scholar
Wood, E.J., (2003), Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador, Cambridge Univesity Press, New York, NY.10.1017/CBO9780511808685Search in Google Scholar
Zamosc, L., (1986), The Agrarian Question and the Peasant Movement in Colombia: Struggles of the National Peasant Association, 1967–1981, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.10.1017/CBO9780511558948Search in Google Scholar
Zartman, I.W., (1985), Ripe for Resolution: Conflict and Intervention in Africa, Oxford University Press, New York, NY.Search in Google Scholar
©2014 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin Boston