Abstract
This paper is a contribution to the study of the impact of public opinion and evolutions in opinion on the occurrence of international terrorism. First, we replicate Krueger and Malečková’s (2009) model of the relationship between attitudes towards world leaders and occurrences of international terrorist incidents, using more recent data-the Gallup Survey data from 2010 on public opinion in Middle Eastern and North African countries and the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) data on international terrorism from 2009 to 2011. The analysis confirms the model of the earlier study, although, due to the distribution of terrorist incidents in the new sample, the evidence of the correlation between terrorist attacks and public opinion weakens. Second, we exercise an out-of-sample prediction of terrorist attacks using the estimated model based on the data from the 2004 to 2008 period to predict the occurrence of attacks in 2009–2011. The findings suggest that Krueger and Malečková’s (2009) model is unstable, either due to the instability of the process or the problematic nature of terrorism data. Further research is necessary to explain and test these results.
Acknowledgments
The research leading to these results has received funding from GAČR (Grantová agentura České republiky) under grant agreement no. P402/12/0510.
Appendix 1
Comparison of different datasets by source countries and recorded terrorist incidents 2009–2011.
| Origin | NCTC | GTD | ITERATE | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2010 | 2007 | 2010 | 2007 | 2010 | |
| Algeria | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Cyprus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Egypt | 18 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Israel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lebanon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mauritania | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Morocco | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pakistan | 17 | 44 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| Palestine | 32 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| Tunisia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Turkey | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| UAE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yemen | 4 | 30 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 |
| Total | 87 | 105 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 26 |
Comparison of different datasets by target countries and recorded terrorist incidents 2009–2011.
| Target | NCTC | GTD | ITERATE | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 2010 | 2007 | 2010 | 2007 | 2010 | |
| Canada | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| China | 8 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| France | 12 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Germany | 8 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| India | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Japan | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Russia | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| UK | 21 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| US | 24 | 25 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 17 |
| Total | 87 | 105 | 25 | 23 | 29 | 27 |
Negative binomial regression model of disapproval rate and terrorist incidents 2009–2011.
| Variables | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) |
| GTD | ITERATE | |||
| Attacks ‘07 | Attacks ‘10 | Attacks ‘07 | Attacks ‘10 | |
| Disapproval rate ij | 2.749*** | 4.443*** | 2.452* | 4.701*** |
| (1.024) | (1.490) | (1.445) | (0.994) | |
| Log (population i) | 0.289 | –0.105 | 0.374** | 0.116 |
| (0.274) | (0.243) | (0.152) | (0.111) | |
| Log (distance i-j) | –1.399*** | –1.107 | –1.465* | –1.037** |
| (0.439) | (0.889) | (0.753) | (0.475) | |
| Civil Liberties i | 0.445 | –1.224 | 0.780*** | –0.498 |
| (0.403) | (1.079) | (0.266) | (0.539) | |
| Log (GDP pc i) | –0.0581 | –2.715** | –0.272 | –2.208*** |
| (0.410) | (1.262) | (0.252) | (0.604) | |
| Share of Muslims i | 0.0900 | –0.00867 | 0.128* | 0.0426 |
| (0.0610) | (0.0337) | (0.0710) | (0.0347) | |
| Log (population j) | 1.376*** | 1.450*** | 1.504*** | 1.570*** |
| (0.466) | (0.435) | (0.457) | (0.203) | |
| Civil Liberties j | 0.554 | 0.445 | 0.581 | –0.696** |
| (0.378) | (0.373) | (0.672) | (0.291) | |
| Log (GDP pc j) | 1.223** | 1.495* | 1.794** | 0.897** |
| (0.604) | (0.820) | (0.802) | (0.453) | |
| –55.16*** | –17.07 | –68.02*** | –27.69*** | |
| Constant | (18.43) | (24.15) | (19.23) | (9.994) |
| Observations | 111 | 111 | 111 | 111 |
Robust standard errors in parentheses (***p<0.01, **p<0.05, *p<0.1).
GTD: The threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence to attain a political, economic, religious or social goal through fear, coercion or intimidation. Sources: Reuters and the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS), Pinkerton Global Intelligence Service (PGIS) and its offices around the world, US State Department reports, other US, other foreign government reporting, US and foreign newspapers (New York Times, the British Financial Times, the Christian Science Monitor, the Washington Post, the Washington Times, and the Wall Street Journal).
ITERATE: The use, or threat of use, of anxiety-inducing, extra-normal violence for political purposes by any individual or group, whether acting for or in opposition to established governmental authority, when such action is intended to influence the attitudes and behavior of a target group wider than the immediate victims and when, through the nationality or foreign ties of its perpetrators, its location, the nature of its institutional or human victims, or the mechanics of its resolution, its ramifications transcend national boundaries. International terrorism is such action when carried out by individuals or groups controlled by a sovereign state, whereas transnational terrorism is carried out by basically autonomous non-state actors, whether or not they enjoy some degree of support from sympathetic states.
Appendix 2
Comparison of real and predicted attacks for 2010 period.
| Origin | Target | Real | Predicted | True/False |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | France | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Algeria | Germany | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Algeria | UK | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Algeria | US | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cyprus | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cyprus | China | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cyprus | France | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cyprus | Germany | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cyprus | India | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cyprus | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cyprus | Russia | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cyprus | UK | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cyprus | US | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Egypt | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Egypt | China | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Egypt | France | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Egypt | Germany | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Egypt | India | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Egypt | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Egypt | Russia | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Egypt | UK | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Egypt | US | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Israel | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Israel | China | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Israel | France | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Israel | Germany | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Israel | India | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Israel | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Israel | Russia | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Israel | UK | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Israel | US | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lebanon | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lebanon | China | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lebanon | France | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lebanon | Germany | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lebanon | India | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lebanon | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lebanon | Russia | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lebanon | UK | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lebanon | US | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mauritania | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mauritania | China | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mauritania | France | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Mauritania | Germany | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mauritania | India | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mauritania | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mauritania | Russia | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mauritania | UK | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mauritania | US | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Morocco | Canada | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Morocco | China | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Morocco | France | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Morocco | Germany | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Morocco | India | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Morocco | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Morocco | Russia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Morocco | UK | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Morocco | US | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pakistan | Canada | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pakistan | China | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Pakistan | France | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Pakistan | Germany | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Pakistan | Japan | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Pakistan | Russia | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Pakistan | UK | 16 | 2 | 1 |
| Pakistan | US | 12 | 3 | 1 |
| Palestine | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Palestine | China | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Palestine | France | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Palestine | Germany | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Palestine | India | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Palestine | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Palestine | Russia | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Palestine | UK | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Palestine | US | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tunisia | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tunisia | China | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tunisia | France | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tunisia | Germany | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tunisia | India | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tunisia | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tunisia | Russia | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tunisia | UK | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tunisia | US | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Turkey | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Turkey | China | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Turkey | France | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Turkey | Germany | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Turkey | India | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Turkey | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Turkey | Russia | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Turkey | UK | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Turkey | US | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| United Arab Emirates | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| United Arab Emirates | China | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| United Arab Emirates | France | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| United Arab Emirates | Germany | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| United Arab Emirates | India | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| United Arab Emirates | Japan | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| United Arab Emirates | Russia | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| United Arab Emirates | US | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yemen | Canada | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yemen | China | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Yemen | France | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Yemen | Germany | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Yemen | India | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Yemen | Japan | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Yemen | Russia | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yemen | UK | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Yemen | US | 8 | 1 | 1 |
| 105 | 85 |
Appendix 3
| Paired t-test | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | Obs | Mean | Std. Err. | Std. Dev. | [95% Conf. Interval] |
| Attacks NCTC ‘10 | 111 | 12.35 | 1.58 | 16.60 | 9.21 15.48 |
| PredAttacks NCTC ‘10 | 111 | 5.45 | 1.37 | 14.38 | 2.74 8.17 |
| Difference | 111 | 6.89 | 1.85 | 19.44 | 3.22 10.57 |
Mean(diff)=mean(PredAttacks NCTC ‘10– Attacks NCTC ‘10) t=3.7182.
Ho: mean(diff)=0 degrees of freedom=110.
Ha: mean(diff)<0 Ha: mean(diff)!= 0 Ha: mean(diff)>0.
Pr(T<t)=0.9998 Pr(∣T∣>∣t∣)=0.0003 Pr(T>t)=0.0002.
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