Abstract
Using a fractional integration approach, we find that developing countries recover their economic growth faster than developed countries in response to a shock. The main finding is that longer civil conflicts are associated with a faster recovery process. To investigate deeper on this issue, we explore correlations with components of GDP. Higher government spending is correlated with faster recoveries post longer conflicts and higher consumption and investment are linked to faster recoveries following shorter conflicts.
References
Blattman, C., (2009), From Violence to Voting: War and Political Participation in Uganda, The American Political Science Review, vol. 103, no. 2, pp. 231–247.Search in Google Scholar
Collier, P., (1999), On the Economic Consequences of Civil War, Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 168–183.Search in Google Scholar
Collier, P., (2009), Post-Conflict Recovery: How Should Strategies be Distinctive?, Journal of African Economies, vol. 18, AERC Supplement: i99–i131.Search in Google Scholar
Dahlhaus, R., (1989), Efficient Parameter Estimation for Self-Similar Process, Annals of Statistics, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 1749–1766.Search in Google Scholar
DeJong, D.N., Nankervis, J.C., Savin, N.E., Whiteman, C.H., (1992), The Power Problem of Unit Root Tests in Time Series With Autoregressive Errors, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 53, pp. 323–343.Search in Google Scholar
Easterly, W., Levine, R., (1997), Africa’s Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 112, pp. 1202–1250.Search in Google Scholar
Gil-Alana, L.A., Robinson, P.M., (1997), Testing of Unit Roots and Other Nonstationary Hypotheses in Macroeconomic Time Series, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 80, no. 2, pp. 241–268.Search in Google Scholar
Hoeffler, A., (2012), Growth, Aid and Policies in Countries Recovering From War, OECD Development Co-operation Working Paper 1/2012.Search in Google Scholar
Knight, M., Loayza, N., Villanueva, D., (1996), The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 43, no. 1, pp. 1–37. Washington DC, United States.10.2307/3867351Search in Google Scholar
Miguel, E., Bellows, J., (2006), War and Institutions: New Evidence from Sierra Leone,” American Economic Review, vol. 96, no. 2, pp. 394–399.Search in Google Scholar
Miguel, E.S. Satyanath, Sergenti, E., (2004), Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 112, no. 4, pp. 725–753.Search in Google Scholar
Murdoch J., Sandler, T., (2002a), Economic Growth, Civil Wars and Spatial Spillovers, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 46, pp. 91–110.10.1177/0022002702046001006Search in Google Scholar
Murdoch, J., Sandler, T., (2002b), Civil Wars and Economic Growth: A Regional Comparison, Defence and Peace Economics, vol. 13, pp. 6.10.1080/10242690214336Search in Google Scholar
Nelson, C.R., Plosser, C.I., (1982), Trends Versus Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series. Some Evidence and Implications, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 10, pp. 139–162.10.1016/0304-3932(82)90012-5Search in Google Scholar
Nunn, N., Nancy Qian, (2012), Aiding Conflict: The Impact of U.S. Food Aid on Civil War, NBER Working Paper 17794.Search in Google Scholar
Robinson, P.M., (1994), Efficient Tests of Nonstationary Hypotheses, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 89, pp. 1420–1437.Search in Google Scholar
© 2014 by De Gruyter
