Abstract
The paper employs Zipf’s law to examine the distribution of military spending across countries in the world over the period 1988–2012. Military spending can cautiously be treated as a crude and distant proxy for military capacity and strength, and hence states’ hard power. The paper finds that the first-in-rank country (the USA) consistently spends more on the production of military capabilities than what is projected by Zipf’s law to correspond to a balanced international structure. This, tentatively interpreted, implies the use of military strength (and the concomitant costs for acquiring it) as a tool of hegemonic status consolidation, perhaps vis-à-vis other rising global players. In turn, the countries at the lower end of the rank, although they have overall increased their military outlays, seem to spend less on defence than this is anticipated by the law. This finding may be pointing to free-riding on the military strength of allies and other major powers.
Appendix
Country rank of military expenditure over 1 bil US$ (2011 constant US$ bil).
Rank | 1990 | 1995 | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2012 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average 1988–1990 | Average 1993–1995 | Average 1998–2000 | Average 2003–2005 | Average 2008–2010 | Average 2011–2012 | |||||||
1 | USA | 545.512 | USA | 436.817 | USA | 384.051 | USA | 547.018 | USA | 690.161 | USA | 690.122 |
2 | Russia/USSR | 335.410 | France | 67.097 | France | 62.079 | France | 65.466 | China. P.R. | 124.037 | China. P.R. | 151.879 |
3 | France | 70.450 | Japan | 55.872 | Japan | 59.148 | China. P.R. | 64.149 | Russia | 70.823 | Russia | 84.488 |
4 | Germany | 69.452 | Germany | 55.217 | Germany | 50.949 | Japan | 61.316 | France | 66.905 | France | 62.662 |
5 | UK | 58.603 | Russia | 54.284 | UK | 47.207 | UK | 57.611 | UK | 63.440 | UK | 60.040 |
6 | Japan | 46.697 | UK | 51.006 | Italy | 40.760 | Germany | 48.106 | Japan | 59.293 | Japan | 59.407 |
7 | Italy | 37.767 | Italy | 34.899 | China. P.R. | 33.798 | Russia | 45.847 | Germany | 48.749 | Saudi Ar. | 51.375 |
8 | Brazil | 32.591 | China. P.R. | 22.982 | Saudi Ar. | 26.670 | Italy | 43.407 | India | 46.569 | India | 48.945 |
9 | Saudi Ar. | 21.648 | Saudi Ar. | 20.456 | Russia | 26.468 | India | 33.033 | Saudi Ar. | 45.864 | Germany | 48.391 |
10 | Canada | 20.630 | Brazil | 20.084 | India | 25.837 | Saudi Ar. | 29.625 | Italy | 40.010 | Italy | 36.695 |
11 | China. P.R. | 19.078 | India | 19.202 | Brazil | 23.701 | Brazil | 24.856 | Brazil | 34.650 | Brazil | 36.842 |
12 | India | 18.592 | Canada | 18.213 | Turkey | 20.559 | Korea. S. | 23.160 | Korea. S. | 29.516 | Korea. S. | 31.184 |
13 | Spain | 15.854 | Korea. S. | 17.836 | Korea. S. | 19.434 | Australia | 20.656 | Australia | 26.167 | Australia | 26.083 |
14 | Australia | 15.323 | Australia | 16.603 | Australia | 17.748 | Canada | 17.104 | Canada | 22.524 | Canada | 22.838 |
15 | Korea. South | 14.757 | Turkey | 15.740 | Canada | 15.604 | Turkey | 16.925 | Spain | 17.460 | UAE | 19.166 |
16 | Israel | 14.158 | Spain | 14.119 | Israel | 14.033 | Israel | 16.564 | Turkey | 16.790 | Turkey | 17.798 |
17 | Netherlands | 13.768 | Israel | 13.988 | Spain | 13.915 | Spain | 15.108 | Israel | 15.709 | Israel | 15.350 |
18 | German DR | 11.590 | Taiwan | 13.020 | Netherlands | 11.393 | Iran | 12.321 | UAE | 14.566 | Spain | 13.088 |
19 | Turkey | 11.229 | Netherlands | 11.641 | Taiwan | 11.343 | Netherlands | 11.778 | Netherlands | 12.325 | Colombia | 10.877 |
20 | Taiwan | 10.691 | Sweden | 7.687 | Greece | 9.264 | Taiwan | 9.653 | Colombia | 10.950 | Netherlands | 10.870 |
21 | Czechoslovakia | 10.596 | Greece | 7.025 | UAE | 8.183 | UAE | 9.558 | Greece | 10.440 | Taiwan | 10.256 |
22 | Kuwait | 8.580 | Switzerland | 6.979 | Sweden | 7.903 | Greece | 8.777 | Taiwan | 10.037 | Poland | 9.680 |
23 | Belgium | 8.488 | Belgium | 6.341 | Singapore | 7.446 | Singapore | 8.257 | Iran | 9.999 | Singapore | 9.234 |
24 | Sweden | 8.293 | Kuwait | 6.023 | Iran | 7.147 | Colombia | 7.750 | Singapore | 9.269 | Algeria | 8.878 |
25 | Romania | 8.212 | Norway | 5.786 | Poland | 6.514 | Poland | 7.293 | Poland | 8.855 | Norway | 7.211 |
26 | Switzerland | 8.032 | Poland | 5.549 | Belgium | 6.099 | Sweden | 7.138 | Norway | 7.034 | Mexico | 6.788 |
27 | Poland | 7.673 | Thailand | 4.939 | Switzerland | 6.035 | Norway | 6.576 | Sweden | 6.426 | Greece | 6.841 |
28 | South Africa | 7.417 | Pakistan | 4.779 | Colombia | 5.897 | Pakistan | 5.921 | Pakistan | 6.076 | Pakistan | 6.589 |
29 | Greece | 7.274 | Singapore | 4.705 | Norway | 5.794 | Belgium | 5.591 | Belgium | 5.992 | Indonesia | 6.377 |
30 | Norway | 5.824 | Denmark | 4.661 | Denmark | 4.644 | Switzerland | 5.204 | Algeria | 5.672 | Sweden | 6.374 |
31 | Denmark | 4.785 | South Africa | 4.516 | Pakistan | 4.607 | Kuwait | 5.045 | Mexico | 5.637 | Iraq | 5.799 |
32 | Egypt | 4.742 | Colombia | 4.217 | Egypt | 4.250 | Egypt | 5.036 | Thailand | 5.369 | Oman | 5.390 |
33 | Pakistan | 4.111 | Egypt | 4.213 | Portugal | 4.238 | Portugal | 4.816 | Portugal | 5.087 | Kuwait | 5.669 |
34 | Bulgaria | 4.085 | Portugal | 4.051 | Kuwait | 4.071 | Denmark | 4.559 | Oman | 5.023 | Chile | 5.399 |
35 | Hungary | 3.876 | Iran | 4.028 | Mexico | 3.979 | Malaysia | 4.397 | Chile | 4.974 | Thailand | 5.427 |
36 | Portugal | 3.798 | Mexico | 3.640 | Austria | 3.555 | South Africa | 4.294 | Switzerland | 4.960 | Belgium | 5.448 |
37 | Thailand | 3.640 | Austria | 3.510 | Thailand | 3.496 | Oman | 4.276 | Kuwait | 4.795 | Switzerland | 5.055 |
38 | Argentina | 3.599 | Venezuela | 3.181 | Chile | 3.185 | Indonesia | 3.972 | Denmark | 4.748 | Malaysia | 4.735 |
39 | Austria | 3.550 | Croatia | 3.167 | Czech Rep. | 3.155 | Mexico | 3.940 | Malaysia | 4.685 | South Afr. | 4.691 |
40 | Singapore | 3.369 | Czech Rep. | 2.952 | South Afr. | 3.101 | Chile | 3.924 | Egypt | 4.602 | Ukraine | 4.394 |
41 | Yemen | 2.958 | Malaysia | 2.802 | Finland | 2.869 | Czech Rep. | 3.701 | Indonesia | 4.526 | Denmark | 4.599 |
42 | Finland | 2.742 | Finland | 2.739 | Angola | 2.705 | Algeria | 3.497 | South Africa | 4.469 | Egypt | 4.231 |
43 | Oman | 2.605 | Oman | 2.736 | Oman | 2.604 | Austria | 3.444 | Ukraine | 4.069 | Argentina | 4.204 |
44 | Colombia | 2.570 | Chile | 2.540 | Algeria | 2.571 | Finland | 3.356 | Angola | 3.758 | Portugal | 4.423 |
45 | Mexico | 2.531 | Romania | 2.496 | Venezuela | 2.483 | Thailand | 3.165 | Finland | 3.686 | Angola | 3.737 |
46 | Iran | 2.493 | Argentina | 2.445 | Malaysia | 2.373 | Venezuela | 2.824 | Austria | 3.586 | Finland | 3.804 |
47 | Chile | 2.438 | Morocco | 2.105 | Romania | 2.361 | Ukraine | 2.818 | Venezuela | 3.482 | Morocco | 3.463 |
48 | Philippines | 1.952 | Philippines | 2.070 | Argentina | 2.220 | Romania | 2.539 | Iraq | 3.469 | Austria | 3.411 |
49 | Morocco | 1.908 | Indonesia | 1.992 | Ukraine | 2.150 | Morocco | 2.467 | Argentina | 3.207 | Venezuela | 2.851 |
50 | New Zealand | 1.845 | Hungary | 1.938 | Philippines | 2.116 | Philippines | 2.340 | Morocco | 3.108 | Viet Nam | 3.042 |
51 | Malaysia | 1.631 | Angola | 1.743 | Indonesia | 1.952 | Syria | 2.329 | Czech Rep. | 2.905 | Azerbaijan | 3.079 |
52 | Indonesia | 1.616 | Algeria | 1.559 | Croatia | 1.942 | Hungary | 2.213 | Philippines | 2.606 | Libya | 2.800 |
53 | Viet Nam | 1.440 | Ukraine | 1.557 | Hungary | 1.843 | Iraq | 2.212 | Viet Nam | 2.603 | Philippines | 2.758 |
54 | Syria | 1.167 | N. Zealand | 1.493 | Morocco | 1.748 | Angola | 2.188 | Romania | 2.578 | Syria | 2.495 |
55 | Syria | 1.448 | Syria | 1.727 | Argentina | 1.945 | Syria | 2.231 | Ecuador | 2.359 | ||
56 | Slovak Rep. | 1.436 | Peru | 1.658 | Sudan | 1.851 | Ecuador | 2.057 | Czech Rep. | 2.429 | ||
57 | Yemen | 1.339 | N. Zealand | 1.507 | Viet Nam | 1.517 | Qatar | 2.015 | Romania | 2.393 | ||
58 | Peru | 1.328 | Sri Lanka | 1.439 | Peru | 1.512 | Nigeria | 1.903 | Peru | 2.196 | ||
59 | Lebanon | 1.263 | Ireland | 1.334 | N. Zealand | 1.486 | Peru | 1.877 | Nigeria | 2.243 | ||
60 | Ireland | 1.125 | Serbia | 1.322 | Yemen | 1.480 | N. Zealand | 1.784 | Kazakhstan | 2.080 | ||
61 | Sri Lanka | 1.122 | Sudan | 1.187 | Ireland | 1.391 | Azerbaijan | 1.754 | N. Zealand | 1.801 | ||
62 | Bulgaria | 1.016 | Slovak Re. | 1.182 | Slovak Rep. | 1.372 | Sri Lanka | 1.734 | Lebanon | 1.625 | ||
63 | Lebanon | 1.145 | Lebanon | 1.280 | Hungary | 1.629 | Sri Lanka | 1.625 | ||||
64 | Yemen | 1.089 | Qatar | 1.219 | Kazakhstan | 1.565 | Bangladesh | 1.531 | ||||
65 | Ethiopia | 1.057 | Serbia | 1.134 | Yemen | 1.526 | Jordan | 1.361 | ||||
66 | Nigeria | 1.124 | Lebanon | 1.509 | Yemen | 1.204 | ||||||
67 | Bulgaria | 1.114 | Jordan | 1.454 | Ireland | 1.268 | ||||||
68 | Sri Lanka | 1.091 | Ireland | 1.424 | Hungary | 1.239 | ||||||
69 | Ecuador | 1.065 | Slovak Rep. | 1.372 | Slovak Rep. | 1.067 | ||||||
70 | Croatia | 1.065 | Libya | 1.338 | Croatia | 1.053 | ||||||
71 | Bangladesh | 1.240 | ||||||||||
72 | Croatia | 1.163 | ||||||||||
73 | Serbia | 1.055 | ||||||||||
74 | Bulgaria | 1.030 |
*Source: SIPRI.
Change of military expenditure (%) per country rank (truncated set).
Rank | 1990–1995 | 1995–2000 | 2000–2005 | 2005–2010 | 2010–2012 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | –24.88 | –13.74 | 29.79 | 20.74 | –0.01 |
2 | –399.89 | –8.08 | 5.17 | 47.22 | 18.33 |
3 | –26.09 | 5.54 | 7.80 | 9.42 | 16.17 |
4 | –25.78 | –8.38 | 16.91 | 8.35 | –6.77 |
5 | –7.96 | –14.99 | 18.06 | 9.19 | –5.66 |
6 | 8.45 | –25.14 | 15.27 | 18.87 | 0.19 |
7 | –8.22 | –3.26 | 26.28 | 5.95 | 5.11 |
8 | –41.81 | 13.83 | 38.56 | 6.79 | 4.85 |
9 | –5.83 | 22.72 | 19.87 | 27.98 | 5.22 |
10 | –2.72 | 22.27 | 12.78 | 25.96 | –9.04 |
11 | 0.65 | 18.98 | 4.65 | 28.26 | 5.95 |
12 | –2.08 | 11.41 | 11.23 | 21.53 | 5.35 |
13 | 11.11 | 8.22 | 5.92 | 21.06 | –0.33 |
14 | 7.71 | 6.45 | –3.76 | 24.06 | 1.37 |
15 | 6.25 | –0.87 | 7.80 | 3.07 | 8.90 |
16 | –0.27 | –0.62 | 15.28 | 1.35 | 5.66 |
17 | 1.57 | –0.52 | 7.89 | 3.83 | –2.34 |
18 | 10.98 | –14.28 | 7.53 | 15.42 | –11.30 |
19 | 3.54 | –2.62 | 3.70 | 4.44 | –13.32 |
20 | –39.08 | 17.03 | 4.03 | 11.85 | –0.74 |
21 | –50.83 | 14.14 | 14.39 | 8.44 | –1.80 |
22 | –22.93 | 11.69 | 9.96 | 12.55 | –3.69 |
23 | –33.85 | 14.84 | 9.82 | 17.42 | –8.29 |
24 | –37.68 | 15.72 | 7.79 | 16.38 | –4.40 |
25 | –41.93 | 11.17 | 10.69 | 17.63 | –22.80 |
26 | –44.74 | 9.01 | 14.56 | –1.47 | –3.64 |
27 | –55.34 | 18.15 | 8.23 | –2.33 | 6.06 |
28 | –55.21 | 18.96 | 0.40 | 2.55 | 7.78 |
29 | –54.59 | 18.79 | –3.62 | 6.69 | 6.03 |
30 | –24.94 | –0.38 | 10.77 | 8.25 | 11.01 |
31 | –5.95 | 1.98 | 8.68 | 10.50 | 2.79 |
32 | –12.44 | 0.76 | 15.61 | 6.20 | 0.40 |
33 | 2.42 | 0.57 | 12.00 | 5.33 | 10.27 |
34 | –0.85 | 0.50 | 10.70 | 9.25 | 6.95 |
35 | 3.77 | –1.23 | 9.50 | 11.61 | 8.35 |
36 | –4.34 | –2.40 | 17.20 | 13.44 | 8.95 |
37 | –3.70 | –0.40 | 18.26 | 10.82 | 5.14 |
38 | –13.15 | 0.13 | 19.81 | 16.34 | –0.28 |
39 | –12.12 | –0.36 | 19.91 | 15.91 | 0.12 |
40 | –14.11 | 4.80 | 20.97 | 14.74 | –4.75 |
41 | –5.58 | 2.36 | 22.48 | 18.22 | 1.58 |
42 | –0.11 | –1.28 | 22.65 | 21.76 | –5.63 |
43 | 4.79 | –5.08 | 24.39 | 15.36 | 3.21 |
44 | –1.18 | 1.23 | 23.37 | 10.71 | 15.03 |
45 | –1.38 | –0.55 | 21.55 | 14.14 | 1.37 |
46 | –1.98 | –3.03 | 15.98 | 21.26 | 5.71 |
47 | –15.82 | 10.84 | 16.21 | 19.07 | –0.55 |
48 | 5.70 | 6.76 | 12.58 | 26.82 | –1.71 |
49 | 4.23 | 7.35 | 12.82 | 23.08 | –12.51 |
50 | 4.80 | 8.43 | 9.56 | 24.71 | –2.19 |
51 | 6.38 | 10.71 | 16.21 | 19.84 | 5.63 |
52 | –3.63 | 19.72 | 12.23 | 15.09 | 6.92 |
53 | 7.53 | 15.52 | 16.65 | 15.04 | 5.62 |
54 | 21.86 | 14.59 | 20.11 | 15.14 | –3.34 |
55 | 16.16 | 11.23 | 12.83 | 5.39 | |
56 | 13.35 | 10.46 | 9.98 | 15.33 | |
57 | 11.11 | 0.66 | 24.72 | 15.81 | |
58 | 7.69 | 4.83 | 20.55 | 13.34 | |
59 | 5.32 | 10.23 | 20.83 | 16.30 | |
60 | 14.93 | 10.66 | 17.04 | 14.23 | |
61 | 5.42 | 14.69 | 20.70 | 2.58 | |
62 | 14.10 | 13.85 | 20.87 | –6.76 | |
63 | 10.55 | 21.46 | –0.30 | ||
64 | 10.64 | 22.11 | –2.20 | ||
65 | 6.79 | 25.71 | –12.12 | ||
66 | 25.49 | –25.38 | |||
67 | 23.40 | –14.70 | |||
68 | 23.41 | –14.93 | |||
69 | 22.37 | –28.68 | |||
70 | 20.43 | –27.07 | |||
Not increased | 17 | 42 | 63 | 68 | 38 |
Not decreased | 37 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 32 |
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