Abstract
While much work has been devoted to the causes and consequences of civil war, little has been done to explore the prerequisites for civil peace. We shift the focus from the determinants of war to the preconditions to sustain peace, and address the following question: Are there necessary or sufficient conditions for stable civil peace? We use Qualitative Comparative Analysis to approach this question. We do not find necessary conditions for civil peace, but distinct potentially sufficient paths. These are (i) the presence of a fully democratic regime and (ii) the presence of a strongly autocratic regime, with the latter further requiring either a) the absence of a youth bulge and non-miserable living conditions or b) the absence of ethnic tensions. The first type of civil peace is referred to as inherent civil peace whereas the second type is largely a result of strong repression and thus denoted coerced civil peace.
Appendix
Cases | |
---|---|
1 | Austria 1995; Belgium 1995; Canada 1995; Cyprus 1995; Denmark 1995; Spain 1995; France 1995; United Kingdom 1995; Ireland 1995; Italy 1995; Japan 1995; Mauritius 1995; Netherlands 1995; New Zealand 1995; Portugal 1995; Uruguay 1995 |
2 | Bolivia 1995; Dominican Republic 1995; Ecuador 1995; Guyana 1995; Egypt 1991 (cw); Guinea 1999 (cw); India 1982 (cw); Peru 1981 (cw); South Africa 1983 (cw) |
3 | Botswana 1995; Ghana 1995; Lesotho 1995; Namibia 1995; Swaziland 1995; Colombia 1974 (cw); Nigeria 2005 (cw); Nicaragua 1977 (cw) |
4 | Burkina Faso 1995; Cameroon 1995; Madagascar 1995; Mauritania 1995; Malawi 1995; Niger 1995; Togo 1995; Zambia 1995 |
5 | Argentina 1995; Chile 1995; Fiji 1995; South Korea 1995; Malaysia 1995; Tunisia 1995; Albania 1996 (cw) |
6 | United Arab Emirates 1995; Switzerland 1995; Cuba 1995; Finland 1995; Greece 1995; Hungary 1995; Sweden 1995 |
7 | Benin 1995; Guinea-Bissau 1997 (cw); Morocco 1974 (cw); Philippines 1971 (cw); Papua New Guinea 1988 (cw); El Salvador 1978 (cw) |
8 | Australia 1995; Costa Rica 1995; Norway 1995; Panama 1995; Saudi Arabia 1995; United States 1995 |
9 | Nigeria 1995; Democratic Republic of Congo 1991 (cw); Congo 1996 (cw); Algeria 1990 (cw); Liberia 1984 (cw); Senegal 1991 (cw) |
10 | Brazil 1995; Jamaica 1995; Mexico 1995; Paraguay 1995; Trinidad and Tobago 1995; Mexico 2006 (cw) |
11 | Burundi 1971 (cw); Burundi 1987 (cw); Kenya 1990 (cw); Somalia 1987 (cw) |
12 | Bulgaria 1995; Estonia 1995; Latvia 1995; Ukraine 1995 |
13 | Turkmenistan 1995; Democratic Republic of Congo 1976 (cw); Sierra Leone 1990 (cw) |
14 | Uzbekistan 1995; Bangladesh 1975 (cw); Sudan 1982 (cw) |
15 | Kyrgyzstan 1995; Mongolia 1995 |
16 | Gabon 1995; Turkey 1983 (cw) |
17 | Laos 1995; Syria 1978 (cw) |
18 | Gambia 1995; Rwanda 1989 (cw) |
19 | Iran 1995; Honduras 1995 |
20 | Nepal 1995 (cw) |
21 | Iran 1976 (cw) |
22 | Venezuela 1995 |
23 | Jordan 1995 |
24 | Syria 1995 |
25 | Bhutan 1995 |
26 | Mali 1989 (cw) |
27 | – |
28 | – |
29 | – |
30 | – |
31 | – |
32 | – |
Row numbers match those in the truth table (Table 1). Civil war cases are market with (cw).
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