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Political Islam, Internet Use and Willingness to Migrate: Evidence from the Arab Barometer

  • Chiara Falco and Valentina Rotondi EMAIL logo


This paper investigates the relationship between political Islam, willingness to migrate and Internet use by exploiting the second (2010–2011) and the third (2012–2014) waves of the Arab Barometer. In an effort to explain individual-level willingness to migrate from the Arab world, it investigates the channel through which the more people support political Islam the less they are willing to migrate. At the same time, it explores the fact that the Internet could potentially act as a vehicle of political Islam. Indeed, our findings indicate that there exists a positive relationship between Internet use and individual-level willingness to migrate, while there exists a negative relationship between political Islam and individual-level willingness to migrate. The findings indicate also that there is no significant effect of Internet use on political Islam.

JEL classification:: F22; O15; Z12

Corresponding author: Valentina Rotondi, Department of Economics, Catholic University of Milan and LCSR, National Research University, Moscow, E-mail:


Table A.1

Political Islam and Internet use (intensive margin) on Willingness to migrate.

Internet use (intensive margin)Political IslamWillingness to migrate
Political Islam–0.010***–0.009***–0.010***
Internet use (intensive margin)–0.007–0.021**0.0140.031***0.029***0.025***
Male (d)0.515***0.311***0.203***–0.051*–0.033–0.0620.150***0.160***0.166***
Age square0.0000.000***0.000***–0.0000.0000.000–0.000***–0.000***–0.000***
Primary education (d)–0.069–0.048–0.185***–0.1000.010–0.020
Secondary education (d)0.838***0.767***–0.089–0.0300.050***–0.000
Tertiary education (d)0.844***1.099***0.0860.1390.046**–0.023
Marital status0.214***0.234***–0.124***–0.177***0.043***0.027***
Log income US dollars0.017**0.018*–0.009–0.121***–0.006**–0.006*
Employed (d)0.294***0.248***–0.0370.006–0.032***–0.035***
General Trust (d)–0.068**0.015–0.108***
Political interest–0.260***0.030–0.019***
Government Satisfaction–0.017***–0.002–0.018***
Time abroad less than 1 month (d)0.541***–0.545***0.058**
Time abroad between 1 and 3 months (d)0.649***–0.367***0.050
Time abroad between 3 and 6 months (d)0.647***–0.868***0.170***
Time abroad 6 months or more (d)0.596***–0.512***0.143***

Marginal effects. Standard errors in parentheses.

(d) for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1.

*p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.

Ordinary Least Squares estimates from column 1 to 6.

Probit estimates from column 7 to 9.

All specifications include time and country FE.

Table A.2

Internet use at the intensive margin: robustness check.

Internet use (intensive margin)
Age square0.0000.000***0.000***–0.001***–0.000*–0.000
Primary education (d)–0.069–0.0480.468***0.586***
Secondary education (d)0.838***0.767***1.746***1.777***
Tertiary education (d)0.844***1.099***1.746***2.177***
Marital status0.214***0.234***0.275***0.308***
Log income US dollars0.017**0.018*0.023**0.026*
General Trust–0.068**–0.103**
Political interest–0.260***–0.395***
Government satisfaction–0.017***–0.024**
Time abroad less than 1 month (d)0.541***0.689***
Time abroad between 1 and 3 months (d)0.649***0.873***
Time abroad between 3 and 6 months (d)0.647***0.870***
Time abroad 6 months or more (d)0.596***0.777***

Marginal effects. Standard errors in parentheses. (d) for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01. All specifications include time and country FE.

Table A.3

Instrumental variable estimations.

First stage

Internet use (intensive margin)
IV Willingness to migrate
Internet use (intensive margin)–0.120**
External factors–0.101***
Political Islam–0.006**
F(2, 10,224)=25.40
Hansen J statistic: 0.029 (χ2, p-value=0.8637)
Endogeneity test: 11.545 (χ2, p-value=0.0007)
Standard controlsYesYes
Country and time fixed effectYesYes

Standard errors in parentheses. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.


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Published Online: 2015-12-10
Published in Print: 2016-1-1

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