Skip to content
Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter December 10, 2015

Political Islam, Internet Use and Willingness to Migrate: Evidence from the Arab Barometer

  • Chiara Falco and Valentina Rotondi EMAIL logo

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between political Islam, willingness to migrate and Internet use by exploiting the second (2010–2011) and the third (2012–2014) waves of the Arab Barometer. In an effort to explain individual-level willingness to migrate from the Arab world, it investigates the channel through which the more people support political Islam the less they are willing to migrate. At the same time, it explores the fact that the Internet could potentially act as a vehicle of political Islam. Indeed, our findings indicate that there exists a positive relationship between Internet use and individual-level willingness to migrate, while there exists a negative relationship between political Islam and individual-level willingness to migrate. The findings indicate also that there is no significant effect of Internet use on political Islam.

JEL classification:: F22; O15; Z12

Corresponding author: Valentina Rotondi, Department of Economics, Catholic University of Milan and LCSR, National Research University, Moscow, E-mail:

Appendix

Table A.1

Political Islam and Internet use (intensive margin) on Willingness to migrate.

Internet use (intensive margin)Political IslamWillingness to migrate
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)
Political Islam–0.010***–0.009***–0.010***
(0.002)(0.002)(0.002)
Internet use (intensive margin)–0.007–0.021**0.0140.031***0.029***0.025***
(0.009)(0.011)(0.013)(0.002)(0.002)(0.003)
Male (d)0.515***0.311***0.203***–0.051*–0.033–0.0620.150***0.160***0.166***
(0.021)(0.026)(0.031)(0.030)(0.038)(0.045)(0.007)(0.008)(0.010)
Age–0.049***–0.050***–0.056***–0.002–0.008–0.012–0.0010.004*0.002
(0.005)(0.006)(0.008)(0.007)(0.009)(0.011)(0.002)(0.002)(0.003)
Age square0.0000.000***0.000***–0.0000.0000.000–0.000***–0.000***–0.000***
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Primary education (d)–0.069–0.048–0.185***–0.1000.010–0.020
(0.045)(0.055)(0.068)(0.081)(0.017)(0.021)
Secondary education (d)0.838***0.767***–0.089–0.0300.050***–0.000
(0.045)(0.055)(0.067)(0.081)(0.017)(0.021)
Tertiary education (d)0.844***1.099***0.0860.1390.046**–0.023
(0.061)(0.080)(0.091)(0.118)(0.023)(0.028)
Marital status0.214***0.234***–0.124***–0.177***0.043***0.027***
(0.023)(0.028)(0.034)(0.041)(0.008)(0.010)
Log income US dollars0.017**0.018*–0.009–0.121***–0.006**–0.006*
(0.008)(0.010)(0.012)(0.015)(0.003)(0.003)
Employed (d)0.294***0.248***–0.0370.006–0.032***–0.035***
(0.028)(0.032)(0.040)(0.047)(0.009)(0.011)
General Trust (d)–0.068**0.015–0.108***
(0.030)(0.044)(0.010)
Political interest–0.260***0.030–0.019***
(0.015)(0.021)(0.005)
Government Satisfaction–0.017***–0.002–0.018***
(0.006)(0.009)(0.002)
Time abroad less than 1 month (d)0.541***–0.545***0.058**
(0.078)(0.114)(0.029)
Time abroad between 1 and 3 months (d)0.649***–0.367***0.050
(0.088)(0.130)(0.032)
Time abroad between 3 and 6 months (d)0.647***–0.868***0.170***
(0.107)(0.157)(0.041)
Time abroad 6 months or more (d)0.596***–0.512***0.143***
(0.083)(0.121)(0.031)
Observations21,57417,50111,99420,14416,44711,39519,59816,08711,118

Marginal effects. Standard errors in parentheses.

(d) for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1.

*p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.

Ordinary Least Squares estimates from column 1 to 6.

Probit estimates from column 7 to 9.

All specifications include time and country FE.

Table A.2

Internet use at the intensive margin: robustness check.

Internet use (intensive margin)
OLSOLogit
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Male0.515***0.311***0.203***0.662***0.454***0.312***
(0.021)(0.026)(0.031)(0.028)(0.037)(0.045)
Age–0.049***–0.050***–0.056***–0.018**–0.033***–0.048***
(0.005)(0.006)(0.008)(0.008)(0.010)(0.012)
Age square0.0000.000***0.000***–0.001***–0.000*–0.000
(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)(0.000)
Primary education (d)–0.069–0.0480.468***0.586***
(0.045)(0.055)(0.099)(0.128)
Secondary education (d)0.838***0.767***1.746***1.777***
(0.045)(0.055)(0.096)(0.126)
Tertiary education (d)0.844***1.099***1.746***2.177***
(0.061)(0.080)(0.113)(0.151)
Marital status0.214***0.234***0.275***0.308***
(0.023)(0.028)(0.034)(0.043)
Log income US dollars0.017**0.018*0.023**0.026*
(0.008)(0.010)(0.012)(0.015)
Employed0.294***0.248***0.449***0.390***
(0.028)(0.032)(0.039)(0.048)
General Trust–0.068**–0.103**
(0.030)(0.046)
Political interest–0.260***–0.395***
(0.015)(0.022)
Government satisfaction–0.017***–0.024**
(0.006)(0.010)
Time abroad less than 1 month (d)0.541***0.689***
(0.078)(0.110)
Time abroad between 1 and 3 months (d)0.649***0.873***
(0.088)(0.124)
Time abroad between 3 and 6 months (d)0.647***0.870***
(0.107)(0.150)
Time abroad 6 months or more (d)0.596***0.777***
(0.083)(0.117)
Observations21,57417,50111,99421,57417,50111,994

Marginal effects. Standard errors in parentheses. (d) for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01. All specifications include time and country FE.

Table A.3

Instrumental variable estimations.

First stage

Internet use (intensive margin)
IV Willingness to migrate
Internet use (intensive margin)–0.120**
(0.047)
Openess0.126***
(0.020)
External factors–0.101***
(0.033)
Political Islam–0.006**
(0.002)
F(2, 10,224)=25.40
Hansen J statistic: 0.029 (χ2, p-value=0.8637)
Endogeneity test: 11.545 (χ2, p-value=0.0007)
Observations10,49610,253
Standard controlsYesYes
Country and time fixed effectYesYes

Standard errors in parentheses. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.

References

Alesina, A., Algan, Y., Cahuc, P., Giuliano, P., (2015), Family Values and the Regulation of Labor, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 599–630.Search in Google Scholar

Alesina, A., Giuliano, P., (2011), Family Ties and Political Participation, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 9, no. 5, pp. 817–839.Search in Google Scholar

Bacigalupe, G., Cmara, M., (2012), Transnational Families and Social Technologies: Reassessing Immigration Psychology, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, vol. 38, no. 9, pp. 1425–1438.Search in Google Scholar

Becerra, D., (2012), The Impact of Anti-Immigration Policies and Perceived Discrimination in the United States on Migration Intentions Among Mexican Adolescents, International Migration, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 20–32.Search in Google Scholar

Beine, M., Docquier, F., Rapoport, H., (2001), Brain Drain and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 64, no. 1, pp. 275–289.Search in Google Scholar

Beine, M., Salomone, S., (2013), Network Effects in International Migration: Education versus Gender, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 115, no. 2, pp. 354–380.Search in Google Scholar

Berman, S., (2003), Islamism, Revolution, and Civil Society, Perspectives on Politics, vol. 1, pp. 257–272.Search in Google Scholar

Bommes, M., Fassmann, H., Sievers, W., (2014), Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe: Past Developments, Current Status, and Future Potentials, Amsterdam University Press (IMISCOE Research).Search in Google Scholar

Borjas, G.J., (1987), Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants, American Economic Review, vol. 77, no. 4, pp. 531–553.Search in Google Scholar

Caruso, R., Gavrilova, E., (2012), Youth Unemployment, Terrorism and Political Violence, Evidence from the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 1–37.Search in Google Scholar

Caruso, R., Schneider, F., (2013), Brutality of Jihadist Terrorism. A Contest Theory Perspective and Empirical Evidence in the Period 2002–2010, Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 685–696.Search in Google Scholar

Castles, S., Miller, M., (2003), The Age of Migration: International Population Movements in the Modern World, Palgrave Macmillan.Search in Google Scholar

Chiquiar, D., Hanson, G.H., (2005), International Migration, Self-Selection, and the Distribution ofWages: Evidence from Mexico and the United States, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 113, no. 2, pp. 239–281.Search in Google Scholar

Ciftci, S., (2012), Secular-Islamist Cleavage, Values, and Support for Democracy and Sharia in the Arab World, Political Research Quarterly.10.1177/1065912912470759Search in Google Scholar

Docquier, F., Peri, G., Ruyssen, I., (2014), The Cross-Country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration, International Migration Review, vol. 48, pp. S37–S99.Search in Google Scholar

Dustmann, C., Fabbri, F., (2005), Gender and Ethnicity-Married Immigrants in Britain, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 462–484.Search in Google Scholar

Dustmann, C., Frattini, T., Rosso, A., (2015), The Effect of Emigration from Poland on Polish Wages, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 117, no. 2, pp. 522–564.Search in Google Scholar

Dustmann, C., Glitz, A., (2011), Migration and Education. Norface Discussion Paper Series 2011011, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.10.1016/B978-0-444-53444-6.00004-3Search in Google Scholar

Dustmann, C., Preston, I., (2011), Estimating the Effect of Immigration on Wages. CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1121, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.Search in Google Scholar

Falco, C., Rotondi, V., (2015), The Less Extreme, the more you Leave: Radical Islam and Willingness to Migrate, Mimeo.10.1016/j.worlddev.2016.07.017Search in Google Scholar

Fargues, P., (2004), Arab Migration to Europe: Trends and Policies, International Migration Review, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 1348–1371.Search in Google Scholar

Fargues, P., (2013), International Migration and the Nation State in Arab Countries, Middle East Law and Governance, vol. 5, no. 1–2, pp. 5–35.Search in Google Scholar

Fogli, A., Fernandez, R., (2009), Culture: An Empirical Investigation of Beliefs, Work, and Fertility, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 146–77.Search in Google Scholar

Gibson, J., McKenzie, D., Stillman, S., (2011), The Impacts of International Migration on Remaining Household Members: Omnibus Results from a Migration Lottery Program, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 93, no. 4, pp. 1297–1318.Search in Google Scholar

Graves, P., Linnerman, P., (1977), Household Migration: Theoretical and Empirical Results, Journal of Urban Economics, vol. 6, pp. 383–404.Search in Google Scholar

Guiso, L., Sapienza, P., Zingales, L., (2006), Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes? Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 23–48.Search in Google Scholar

Guiso, L., Sapienza, P., Zingales, L., (2009), Cultural Biases in Economic Exchange? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 124, no. 3, pp. 1095–1131.Search in Google Scholar

Hagen-Zanker, J., (2008), Why do People Migrate? A Review of the Theoretical Literature. MPRA Paper 28197, University Library of Munich, Germany.10.2139/ssrn.1105657Search in Google Scholar

Heckman, J.J., (1978), Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System, Econometrica, vol. 46, no. 4, pp. 931–959.Search in Google Scholar

Hiller, H.H., Franz, T.M., (2004), New Ties, Old Ties and Lost Ties: The use of the Internet in Diaspora, New Media & Society, vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 731–752.Search in Google Scholar

Hoffman, S., Marsiglia, F., Ayers, S., (2015), Religiosity and Migration Aspirations among Mexican Youth, Journal of International Migration and Integration, vol. 16, pp. 173–186.Search in Google Scholar

Howard, P.N., (2010), The Digital Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Information Technology and Political Islam (Oxford Studies in Digital Politics), Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199736416.003.0009Search in Google Scholar

Kanaiaupuni, S.M., (2000), Reframing the Migration Question: An Analysis of Men, Women, and Gender in Mexico, Social Forces, vol. 78, no. 4, pp. 1311–1347.Search in Google Scholar

Kramer, M., (2003), Coming to Terms: Fundamentalists or Islamists? Middle East Quarterly, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 65–77.Search in Google Scholar

Lauby, J., Stark, O., (1988), Individual Migration as a Family Strategy: Young Women in the Philippines, Population Studies, vol. 42, no. 3, pp. 473–486.Search in Google Scholar

Lee,W.-S., Guven, C., (2013), Engaging in Corruption: The Influence of Cultural Values and Contagion Effects at the Microlevel, Journal of Economic Psychology, vol. 39, no. C, pp. 287–300.Search in Google Scholar

Massey, D., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Ali Kouaouci, A.P., Taylor, J.E., (1993), Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal, Population and Development Review, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 431–466.Search in Google Scholar

Mayda, A., (2010), International Migration: A Panel Data Analysis of the Determinants of Bilateral Flows, Journal of Population Economics, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 1249–1274.Search in Google Scholar

Otrachshenko, V., Popova, O., (2014), Life (Dis)Satisfaction and the Intention to Migrate: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe, The Journal of Socio-Economics, vol. 48, no. 0, pp. 40–49.Search in Google Scholar

Parham, A.A., (2004), Diaspora, Community and Communication: Internet use in Transnational Haiti, Global Networks, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 199–217.Search in Google Scholar

Stillman, S., Gibson, J., McKenzie, D., Rohorua, H., (2015), Miserable Migrants? Natural Experiment Evidence on International Migration and Objective and Subjective Well-Being, World Development, vol. 65, no. C, pp. 79–93.Search in Google Scholar

Stinner, W., Van Loon, M., (1992), Community Size Preference Status, Community Satisfaction and Migration Intentions, Population and Environment, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 177–195.Search in Google Scholar

Stinner, W., Van Loon, M., Byun, Y., (1992), Plans to Migrate in and out of Utah, Sociology and Social Research, vol. 76, pp. 131–137.Search in Google Scholar

Tabellini, G., (2010), Culture and Institutions: Economic Development in the Regions of Europe, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 677–716.Search in Google Scholar

Tufekci, Z., Wilson, C., (2012), Social Media and the Decision to Participate in Political Protest: Observations from Tahrir Square, Journal of Communication, vol. 62, no. 2, pp. 363–379.Search in Google Scholar

Valenzuela, S., Arriagada, A., Scherman, A., (2014), Facebook, Twitter, and Youth Engagement: A Quasi-Experimental Study of Social Media use and Protest Behavior using Propensity Score Matching, International Journal of Communication, vol. 8, pp. 2046–2070.Search in Google Scholar

Vilhelmson, B., Thulin, E., (2013), Does the Internet Encourage People to Move? Investigating Swedish Young Adults Internal Migration Experiences and Plans, Geoforum, vol. 47, pp. 209–216.Search in Google Scholar

Wagner, K.M., Gainous, J., (2013), Digital Uprising: The Internet Revolution in the Middle East, Journal of Information Technology & Politics, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 261–275.Search in Google Scholar

Wellman, B., Haase, A.E., Witte, J., Hampton, K., (2001), Does the Internet Increase, Decrease or Supplement Social Capital: Social Networks, Participation, and Community Involvement, American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 45, no. 3, pp. 436–455.Search in Google Scholar

Williamson, C.R., Mathers, R.L., (2011), Economic Freedom, Culture, and Growth, Public Choice, vol. 148, no. 3–4, pp. 313–335.Search in Google Scholar

Published Online: 2015-12-10
Published in Print: 2016-1-1

©2016 by De Gruyter

Downloaded on 22.3.2023 from https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/peps-2015-0045/html
Scroll Up Arrow