Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between political Islam, willingness to migrate and Internet use by exploiting the second (2010–2011) and the third (2012–2014) waves of the Arab Barometer. In an effort to explain individual-level willingness to migrate from the Arab world, it investigates the channel through which the more people support political Islam the less they are willing to migrate. At the same time, it explores the fact that the Internet could potentially act as a vehicle of political Islam. Indeed, our findings indicate that there exists a positive relationship between Internet use and individual-level willingness to migrate, while there exists a negative relationship between political Islam and individual-level willingness to migrate. The findings indicate also that there is no significant effect of Internet use on political Islam.
Appendix
Political Islam and Internet use (intensive margin) on Willingness to migrate.
| Internet use (intensive margin) | Political Islam | Willingness to migrate | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
| Political Islam | –0.010*** | –0.009*** | –0.010*** | ||||||
| (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.002) | |||||||
| Internet use (intensive margin) | –0.007 | –0.021** | 0.014 | 0.031*** | 0.029*** | 0.025*** | |||
| (0.009) | (0.011) | (0.013) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.003) | ||||
| Male (d) | 0.515*** | 0.311*** | 0.203*** | –0.051* | –0.033 | –0.062 | 0.150*** | 0.160*** | 0.166*** |
| (0.021) | (0.026) | (0.031) | (0.030) | (0.038) | (0.045) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.010) | |
| Age | –0.049*** | –0.050*** | –0.056*** | –0.002 | –0.008 | –0.012 | –0.001 | 0.004* | 0.002 |
| (0.005) | (0.006) | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.009) | (0.011) | (0.002) | (0.002) | (0.003) | |
| Age square | 0.000 | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | –0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | –0.000*** | –0.000*** | –0.000*** |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| Primary education (d) | –0.069 | –0.048 | –0.185*** | –0.100 | 0.010 | –0.020 | |||
| (0.045) | (0.055) | (0.068) | (0.081) | (0.017) | (0.021) | ||||
| Secondary education (d) | 0.838*** | 0.767*** | –0.089 | –0.030 | 0.050*** | –0.000 | |||
| (0.045) | (0.055) | (0.067) | (0.081) | (0.017) | (0.021) | ||||
| Tertiary education (d) | 0.844*** | 1.099*** | 0.086 | 0.139 | 0.046** | –0.023 | |||
| (0.061) | (0.080) | (0.091) | (0.118) | (0.023) | (0.028) | ||||
| Marital status | 0.214*** | 0.234*** | –0.124*** | –0.177*** | 0.043*** | 0.027*** | |||
| (0.023) | (0.028) | (0.034) | (0.041) | (0.008) | (0.010) | ||||
| Log income US dollars | 0.017** | 0.018* | –0.009 | –0.121*** | –0.006** | –0.006* | |||
| (0.008) | (0.010) | (0.012) | (0.015) | (0.003) | (0.003) | ||||
| Employed (d) | 0.294*** | 0.248*** | –0.037 | 0.006 | –0.032*** | –0.035*** | |||
| (0.028) | (0.032) | (0.040) | (0.047) | (0.009) | (0.011) | ||||
| General Trust (d) | –0.068** | 0.015 | –0.108*** | ||||||
| (0.030) | (0.044) | (0.010) | |||||||
| Political interest | –0.260*** | 0.030 | –0.019*** | ||||||
| (0.015) | (0.021) | (0.005) | |||||||
| Government Satisfaction | –0.017*** | –0.002 | –0.018*** | ||||||
| (0.006) | (0.009) | (0.002) | |||||||
| Time abroad less than 1 month (d) | 0.541*** | –0.545*** | 0.058** | ||||||
| (0.078) | (0.114) | (0.029) | |||||||
| Time abroad between 1 and 3 months (d) | 0.649*** | –0.367*** | 0.050 | ||||||
| (0.088) | (0.130) | (0.032) | |||||||
| Time abroad between 3 and 6 months (d) | 0.647*** | –0.868*** | 0.170*** | ||||||
| (0.107) | (0.157) | (0.041) | |||||||
| Time abroad 6 months or more (d) | 0.596*** | –0.512*** | 0.143*** | ||||||
| (0.083) | (0.121) | (0.031) | |||||||
| Observations | 21,574 | 17,501 | 11,994 | 20,144 | 16,447 | 11,395 | 19,598 | 16,087 | 11,118 |
Marginal effects. Standard errors in parentheses.
(d) for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1.
*p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.
Ordinary Least Squares estimates from column 1 to 6.
Probit estimates from column 7 to 9.
All specifications include time and country FE.
Internet use at the intensive margin: robustness check.
| Internet use (intensive margin) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLS | OLogit | |||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Male | 0.515*** | 0.311*** | 0.203*** | 0.662*** | 0.454*** | 0.312*** |
| (0.021) | (0.026) | (0.031) | (0.028) | (0.037) | (0.045) | |
| Age | –0.049*** | –0.050*** | –0.056*** | –0.018** | –0.033*** | –0.048*** |
| (0.005) | (0.006) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.010) | (0.012) | |
| Age square | 0.000 | 0.000*** | 0.000*** | –0.001*** | –0.000* | –0.000 |
| (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |
| Primary education (d) | –0.069 | –0.048 | 0.468*** | 0.586*** | ||
| (0.045) | (0.055) | (0.099) | (0.128) | |||
| Secondary education (d) | 0.838*** | 0.767*** | 1.746*** | 1.777*** | ||
| (0.045) | (0.055) | (0.096) | (0.126) | |||
| Tertiary education (d) | 0.844*** | 1.099*** | 1.746*** | 2.177*** | ||
| (0.061) | (0.080) | (0.113) | (0.151) | |||
| Marital status | 0.214*** | 0.234*** | 0.275*** | 0.308*** | ||
| (0.023) | (0.028) | (0.034) | (0.043) | |||
| Log income US dollars | 0.017** | 0.018* | 0.023** | 0.026* | ||
| (0.008) | (0.010) | (0.012) | (0.015) | |||
| Employed | 0.294*** | 0.248*** | 0.449*** | 0.390*** | ||
| (0.028) | (0.032) | (0.039) | (0.048) | |||
| General Trust | –0.068** | –0.103** | ||||
| (0.030) | (0.046) | |||||
| Political interest | –0.260*** | –0.395*** | ||||
| (0.015) | (0.022) | |||||
| Government satisfaction | –0.017*** | –0.024** | ||||
| (0.006) | (0.010) | |||||
| Time abroad less than 1 month (d) | 0.541*** | 0.689*** | ||||
| (0.078) | (0.110) | |||||
| Time abroad between 1 and 3 months (d) | 0.649*** | 0.873*** | ||||
| (0.088) | (0.124) | |||||
| Time abroad between 3 and 6 months (d) | 0.647*** | 0.870*** | ||||
| (0.107) | (0.150) | |||||
| Time abroad 6 months or more (d) | 0.596*** | 0.777*** | ||||
| (0.083) | (0.117) | |||||
| Observations | 21,574 | 17,501 | 11,994 | 21,574 | 17,501 | 11,994 |
Marginal effects. Standard errors in parentheses. (d) for discrete change of dummy variable from 0 to 1. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01. All specifications include time and country FE.
Instrumental variable estimations.
| First stage Internet use (intensive margin) | IV Willingness to migrate | |
|---|---|---|
| Internet use (intensive margin) | –0.120** | |
| (0.047) | ||
| Openess | 0.126*** | |
| (0.020) | ||
| External factors | –0.101*** | |
| (0.033) | ||
| Political Islam | –0.006** | |
| (0.002) | ||
| F(2, 10,224)=25.40 | ||
| Hansen J statistic: 0.029 (χ2, p-value=0.8637) | ||
| Endogeneity test: 11.545 (χ2, p-value=0.0007) | ||
| Observations | 10,496 | 10,253 |
| Standard controls | Yes | Yes |
| Country and time fixed effect | Yes | Yes |
Standard errors in parentheses. *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.
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