Skip to content
Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter August 11, 2017

Climate Change and Cross-State Islamist Terrorism in Nigeria

Gregory N. Price and Juliet U. Elu

Abstract

This paper considers if increases in temperature and decreases in rain associated with climate change are a potential driver of Islamist terrorism across states in Nigeria. With state-level Islamist terrorism event, temperature, rainfall and sociodemographic data for Nigeria, we estimate latent variable and count data specifications of the relationship between the number of Islamist terrorism events and climactic variation in temperature and rainfall motivated by how the psychological costs of conflict can be decreased by increases in outdoor ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. Our parameter estimates reveal that increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall increase the likelihood of Islamist terrorism in Nigeria. This suggests that global warming and reduced rainfall induced by climate change are potential drivers of terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa, and policy interventions designed to abate anthropogenic climate change can reduce violent conflict that is harmful for economic growth and development.

JEL Classification: C23; D74; O55; R11; Q5; Q54; Z12

Acknowledgement

The authors acknowledge and express gratitude for, financial support from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, University of Maryland, and the Division of Business Administration and Economics, Morehouse College.

References

Adesoji, A. (2010). The Boko Haram Uprising and Islamic Revivalism in Nigeria. Africa Spectrum, 45, 95–108.10.1177/000203971004500205Search in Google Scholar

Akinola, O. (2015). Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria: Between Islamic Fundamentalism, Politics and Poverty. African Security, 8, 1–29.10.1080/19392206.2015.998539Search in Google Scholar

Anderson, C. A. (1989). Temperature and aggression: Ubiquitous effects of heat on occurrence of human violence. Psychological Bulletin, 106, 74–96.10.1037/0033-2909.106.1.74Search in Google Scholar

Anderson, C. A., Bushman, B. J. & Groom, R. W. (1997). Hot years and serious and deadly assault: Empirical tests of the heat hypothesis. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 73, 1213–1223.10.1037/0022-3514.73.6.1213Search in Google Scholar

Annual Abstract of Statistics. (2012). National Bureau of Statistics FCT Abuja NG, Federal Republic of Nigeria.Search in Google Scholar

Baron, R. A. & Bell, P. A. (1976). Aggression and heat: The influence of ambient temperature, negative affect, and a cooling drink on physical aggression. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 33, 245–255.10.1037/0022-3514.33.3.245Search in Google Scholar

Barros, C. P. & Proença, I. (2005). Mixed logit estimation of radical islamic terrorism in Europe and North America: A comparative study. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 49, 298–314.10.1177/0022002704272829Search in Google Scholar

Baumeister, R. & Heatherton, T. (1996). Self regulation failure: An overview. Psychological Inquiry, 7, 1–15.10.1207/s15327965pli0701_1Search in Google Scholar

Beccarini, A. (2010). Eliminating the omitted variable bias by a regime-switching approach. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37, 57–75.10.1080/02664760902914474Search in Google Scholar

Becker, G. S., Murphy, K. M. & Topel, R. H. (2010). On The economics of climate policy. B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 10(2). (Symposium), Article 19.10.4337/9781783470273.00006Search in Google Scholar

Brown, O., Hammil, A. & McLeman, R. (2007). Climate change as the new security threat: Implications for Africa. International Affairs, 83, 1141–1154.10.1111/j.1468-2346.2007.00678.xSearch in Google Scholar

Buhaug, H. (2010). Climate not to blame for African civil wars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107, 16477–16482.10.1073/pnas.1005739107Search in Google Scholar

Burke, M., Hsiang, S. M. & Miguel, E. (2015). Climate and conflict. Annual Review of Economics, 7, 577–617.10.3386/w20598Search in Google Scholar

Burke, M. B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J. A. & Lobell, D. B. (2009). Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 20670–20674.10.1073/pnas.0907998106Search in Google Scholar

Butler, C. K. & Gates, S. (2012). African range wars: Climate, conflict, and property rights. Journal of Peace Research, 49, 23–34.10.1177/0022343311426166Search in Google Scholar

Card, D. & Dahl, G. B. (2011). Family violence and football: The effect of unexpected emotional cues on violent behavior. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126, 103–143.10.3386/w15497Search in Google Scholar

Caruso, R., Petrarca, I. & Ricciuti, R. (2016). Climate change, rice crops, and violence: Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Peace Research, 53, 66–83.10.1177/0022343315616061Search in Google Scholar

Caruso, R. & Schneider, F. (2013). Brutality of Jihadist terrorism. A contest theory perspective and empirical evidence in the period 2002-–2010. Journal of Policy Modeling, 35, 685–696.10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.12.005Search in Google Scholar

Caselli, F. & Coleman, W. J. (2013). On The theory of ethnic conflict. Journal of the European Economic Association, 11, 161–192.10.3386/w12125Search in Google Scholar

Chassang, S. & Padro-i-Miquel, G. (2009). Economic shocks and civil war. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 4, 211–228.10.1561/100.00008072Search in Google Scholar

Conrad, J. & Milton, D. (2013). Unpacking the connection between terror and Islam. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 36, 315–336.10.1080/1057610X.2013.763600Search in Google Scholar

Craig, C., Overbeek, R. W., Condon, M. V. & Rinaldo, S. B. (2016). A relationship between temperature and aggression in NFL Football penalties. Journal of Sport and Health Science, 5, 205–210.10.1016/j.jshs.2015.01.001Search in Google Scholar

Crain, N. V. & Crain, W. M. (2006). Terrorized economies. Public Choice, 128, 317–349.10.1007/s11127-006-9056-6Search in Google Scholar

Danzell, O. E., Yeh, Y.-Y. & Pfannenstiel, M. (2016). Determinants of domestic terrorism: An examination of ethnic polarization and economic development. Terrorism and Political Violence, 1–23. Forthcoming.10.1080/09546553.2016.1258636Search in Google Scholar

Dell, M., Jones, B. F. & Olken, B. A. (2012). Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4, 66–95.10.1257/mac.4.3.66Search in Google Scholar

Demeritt, D. (2001). The construction of global warming and the politics of science. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 91, 307–337.10.1111/0004-5608.00245Search in Google Scholar

DeWall, C. N., Anderson, C. A. & Bushman, B. J. (2011). The general aggression model: Theoretical extensions to violence. Psychology of Violence, 1, 245–258.10.1037/a0023842Search in Google Scholar

Dowd, C. (2015a). Cultural and religious demography and violent Islamist groups in Africa. Political Geography, 45, 11–21.10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.09.006Search in Google Scholar

Dowd, C. (2015b). Grievances, governance and Islamist violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Modern African Studies, 53, 505–531.10.1017/S0022278X15000737Search in Google Scholar

Efobi, U. & Asongu, S. (2016). Terrorism and capital flight from Africa International Economics, 148, 81–94.10.1016/j.inteco.2016.06.004Search in Google Scholar

Elu, J. U. & Price, G. N. (2012). Remittances and the financing of terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa: 1974–2006. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 18(1), 1–40.10.1515/1554-8597.1257Search in Google Scholar

Elu, J. U. & Price, G. N. (2014). Terrorism and regional integration in Sub-Saharan Africa: The case of the CFA Franc zone. Seck, D. (Ed.), Regional Economic Integration in West Africa (pp. 253–267). Switzerland: Springer International Publishing.10.1007/978-3-319-01282-7_10Search in Google Scholar

Enders, W. & Hoover, G. A. (2012). The nonlinear relationship between terrorism and poverty. American Economic Review, 102, 267–272.10.1257/aer.102.3.267Search in Google Scholar

Enders, W., Hoover, G. A. & Sandler, T. (2016). The changing nonlinear relationship between income and terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60, 195–225.10.1177/0022002714535252Search in Google Scholar

Esteban, J., Mayoral, L. & Ray, D. (2012). Ethnicity and conflict: An empirical study. American Economic Review, 102, 1310–1342.10.1257/aer.102.4.1310Search in Google Scholar

Fjelde, H. & von Uexkull, N. (2012). Climate triggers: Rainfall anomalies, vulnerability and communal conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Political Geography, 31, 444–453.10.1016/j.polgeo.2012.08.004Search in Google Scholar

Frey, B. S., Luechinger, S. & Stutzer, A. (2007). Calculating tragedy: Assessing the costs of terrorism. Journal of Economic Surveys, 21, 1–24.10.1111/j.1467-6419.2007.00505.xSearch in Google Scholar

Fritsche, I., Cohrs, J. C., Kessler, T. & Bauer, J. (2012). Global warming is breeding social conflict: The subtle impact of climate change threat on authoritarian tendencies. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 32, 1–10.10.1016/j.jenvp.2011.10.002Search in Google Scholar

Gaibulloev, K. & Sandler, T. (2011). The adverse effect of transnational and domestic terrorism on growth in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 48, 355–371.10.1177/0022343310395798Search in Google Scholar

Greene, W. H. (1994). Accounting for excess zeros and sample selection in Poisson and negative binomial regression models. New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.Search in Google Scholar

Hendrix, C. S. & Salehyan, I. (2012). Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 49, 35–50.10.1177/0022343311426165Search in Google Scholar

Hulme, M., Doherty, R., Ngara, T., New, M. & Lister, D. (2001). African climate change: 1900–2100. Climate Research, 17, 145–168.10.3354/cr017145Search in Google Scholar

Judge, G. & Schechter, L. (2009). Detecting problems in survey data using Benford’s Law. Journal of Human Resources, 44, 1–24.10.1353/jhr.2009.0010Search in Google Scholar

Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 263–291.10.21236/ADA045771Search in Google Scholar

Keller, M. C., Fredrickson, B. L., Ybarra, O., Cote, S., Johnson, K., Mikels, J. & Wager, T. (2005). A warm heart and a clear head: The contingent effects of weather on mood and cognition. Psychological Science, 16, 724–731.10.1111/j.1467-9280.2005.01602.xSearch in Google Scholar

Lambert, D. (1992). Zero-inflated Poisson regression, with an application to defects in manufacturing. Technometrics, 34, 1–14.10.2307/1269547Search in Google Scholar

Larrick, R. P., Timmerman, T. A., Carton, A. M. & Abrevaya, J. (2011). Temper, temperature, and temptation heat-related retaliation in baseball. Psychological Science, 22, 423–428.10.1177/0956797611399292Search in Google Scholar

Lee, P., Smith, S., Linderman, J., Courville, A. B., Brychta, R. J., Dieckmann, W. & Celi, F. S. (2014). Temperature-acclimated brown adipose tissue modulates insulin sensitivity in humans. Diabetes, 63, 3686–3698.10.2337/db14-0513Search in Google Scholar

Long, J. S. & Freese, J. (2001). Regression models for categorical dependent variables using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.Search in Google Scholar

Maiangwa, B. (2013). West Africa’s terrorist challenge and dynamics of regional response. Insight on Africa, 5, 1–18.10.1177/0975087813515979Search in Google Scholar

Maiangwa, B. (2014). Jihadism in West Africa: Adopting a three-dimensional approach to counterterrorism. Journal of Peacebuilding and Development, 9, 17–32.10.1080/15423166.2014.984559Search in Google Scholar

Maiangwa, B. (2015). Assessing the responses of the economic community of West African States to the recurring and emerging security threats in West Africa. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 52, 1–18.10.1177/0021909615570951Search in Google Scholar

McFadden, D. (1974). The measurement of urban travel demand. Journal of Public Economics, 3, 303–328.10.1016/0047-2727(74)90003-6Search in Google Scholar

Meierrieks, D. & Gries, T. (2013). Causality between terrorism and economic growth. Journal of Peace Research, 50, 91–104.10.1177/0022343312445650Search in Google Scholar

Montalvo, J. G. & Reynal-Querol, M. (2005). Ethnic polarization, potential conflict, and civil wars. American Economic Review, 95, 796–816.10.1257/0002828054201468Search in Google Scholar

Nordas, R. & Petter Gleditsch, N. (2007). Climate change and conflict. Political Geography, 26, 627–638.10.1007/978-3-319-10954-1_3Search in Google Scholar

Odekunle, T. O., Andrew, O. & Aremu, S. O. (2008). Towards a wetter Sudano-Sahelian ecological zone in twenty-first century Nigeria. Weather, 63, 66–70.10.1002/wea.172Search in Google Scholar

Okekeocha, C. & Ewoh, A. I. (2014). Questioning the constitutionality of Sharia Law in some Nigerian States. African Social Science Review, 6, 15–28.Search in Google Scholar

Olaniran, O. J. (1991). Evidence of climatic change in Nigeria based on annual series of rainfall of different daily amounts, 1919–-1985. Climactic Change, 19, 319–340.10.1007/BF00140169Search in Google Scholar

Oyewole, S. (2015). Boko Haram: Insurgency and the war against terrorism in the Lake Chad region. Strategic Analysis, 39, 428–432.10.1080/09700161.2015.1047227Search in Google Scholar

Phillips, P. J. & Pohl, G. (2014). Prospect theory and terrorist choice. Journal of Applied Economics, 17, 139–160.10.1016/S1514-0326(14)60006-4Search in Google Scholar

Price, G. N. & Elu, J. U. (2016). Can Black Africa afford to be green Africa? Journal of Economic Studies, 43, 48–58.10.1108/JES-06-2014-0086Search in Google Scholar

Salawu, B. (2010). Ethno-religious conflicts in Nigeria: Causal analysis and proposals for new management strategies. it European Journal of Social Sciences, 13, 345–353.Search in Google Scholar

Sandler, T., Tschirhart, J. T. & Cauley, J. (1983). A theoretical analysis of transnational terrorism. American Political Science Review, 77, 36–54.10.4324/9781315235691-17Search in Google Scholar

Testas, A. (2004). Determinants of terrorism in the Muslim world: An empirical cross-sectional analysis. Terrorism and Political Violence, 16, 253–273.10.1080/09546550490482504Search in Google Scholar

Theisen, O. M., Gleditsch, N. P. & Buhaug, H. (2013). Is climate change a driver of armed conflict? Climatic Change, 117, 613–625.10.1007/s10584-012-0649-4Search in Google Scholar

Thompson, S. B. (2011). Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time. Journal of Financial Economics, 99, 1–10.10.1016/j.jfineco.2010.08.016Search in Google Scholar

Tol, R. S. J. & Wagner, S. (2010). Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium. Climatic Change, 99, 65–79.10.1007/s10584-009-9659-2Search in Google Scholar

Venkatraman, A. (2007). Religious basis for Islamic terrorism: The Quran and its interpretations. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 30, 229–248.10.1080/10576100600781612Search in Google Scholar

Westerterp-Plantenga, M. S., van Marken Lichtenbelt, W. D., Strobbe, H. & Schrauwen, P. (2002). Energy metabolism in humans at a lowered ambient temperature. European Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 56, 288–296.10.1038/sj.ejcn.1601308Search in Google Scholar

Wooldridge, J. M. (2003). Cluster-sample methods in applied econometrics. American Economic Review, 93, 133–138.10.1257/000282803321946930Search in Google Scholar

Zorn, C. J. W. (1998). An analytic and empirical examination of zero-inflated and hurdle Poisson specifications. Sociological Methods & Research, 26, 368–400.10.1177/0049124198026003004Search in Google Scholar

Published Online: 2017-8-11

©2017 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston

Scroll Up Arrow