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Die Auswirkungen der Automatisierung auf Wachstum, Beschäftigung und Ungleichheit

Klaus Prettner, Niels Geiger and Johannes A. Schwarzer

Zusammenfassung

Die Automatisierung ist eines der wichtigsten Phänomene, über die aktuell innerhalb der Wirtschaftswissenschaften und in der breiteren Öffentlichkeit diskutiert wird. Dabei finden sich sehr unterschiedliche Positionen: Pessimisten verweisen auf die negativen Beschäftigungseffekte, wenn Menschen mehr und mehr durch Maschinen ersetzt werden und ihre am Markt angebotene Arbeitsleistung somit obsolet wird. Gleichzeitig gilt die Automatisierung auch als Ursache für einen Anstieg der wirtschaftlichen Ungleichheit. Optimistische Stimmen erinnern an die Entwicklung seit der Industriellen Revolution, die mit hohem Produktivitätswachstum und starken Wohlfahrtssteigerungen durch fortlaufende technologische Veränderungen einherging, ohne dass es langfristig zu Massenarbeitslosigkeit gekommen ist. In diesem Survey präsentieren die Autoren empirische Daten und skizzieren ein einfaches Wachstumsmodell, das einen ersten Einblick in die zu erwartenden ökonomischen Auswirkungen der Automatisierung erlaubt. Anschließend vertiefen und erweitern sie die Ergebnisse unter Bezugnahme auf die aktuelle wissenschaftliche Literatur. Aus den verschiedenen Ansatzpunkten und Überlegungen leiten sie schließlich wirtschaftspolitische Handlungsmöglichkeiten ab und erörtern deren Einschränkungen.

JEL-Klassifikation: D31; D33; O33; O38; O49

Danksagung

Wir bedanken uns sehr herzlich bei Ana Abeliansky, Giacomo Corneo und Karen Horn für viele hilfreiche Kommentare und Anregungen.

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Online erschienen: 2018-07-05
Erschienen im Druck: 2018-07-04

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