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Abstract
A stochastic model for the spread of tuberculosis is proposed taking into account the reproduction and seasonal immigration of individuals. The system of difference equations majorating the system of equations for mathematical expectations of sizes of considered cohorts of individuals is studied. Conditions for the parameters of the model are obtained so that under those conditions the sizes of cohorts of afflicted individuals do not exceed the given mean level. The results of numerical experiments are presented for the study of dynamics of mean sizes of cohorts of individuals subject to parameters of immigration inflow.
Keywords: Stochastic recurrence equations; mathematical modelling; Monte-Carlo methods; epidemiology; tuberculosis.
Received: 2014-6-5
Accepted: 2014-6-25
Published Online: 2014-10-11
Published in Print: 2014-10-1
© 2014 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin/Boston
