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Accessible Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg August 22, 2017

The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro Variables – An SVAR-Based Empirical Analysis for EU Countries

Dominik Kronen and Ansgar Belke
From the journal Review of Economics


In light of the rising political and economic uncertainty in Europe, we aim to provide a basic understanding of the impact of policy and stock market uncertainty on a set of macroeconomic variables such as production and investment. In this paper, we apply a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to gain first insights that may help to identify avenues for further research. We find that stock market volatility shows a fairly consistently negative effect. However, the implications of policy uncertainty for Europe and the euro area in particular are not so straightforward.

JEL Classification: C32; E20; E60


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Published Online: 2017-8-22
Published in Print: 2017-9-26

© 2017 Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag GmbH, Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg, Berlin/Boston