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The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro Variables – An SVAR-Based Empirical Analysis for EU Countries

  • Dominik Kronen EMAIL logo and Ansgar Belke
From the journal Review of Economics


In light of the rising political and economic uncertainty in Europe, we aim to provide a basic understanding of the impact of policy and stock market uncertainty on a set of macroeconomic variables such as production and investment. In this paper, we apply a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to gain first insights that may help to identify avenues for further research. We find that stock market volatility shows a fairly consistently negative effect. However, the implications of policy uncertainty for Europe and the euro area in particular are not so straightforward.

JEL Classification: C32; E20; E60


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Published Online: 2017-8-22
Published in Print: 2017-9-26

© 2017 Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag GmbH, Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg, Berlin/Boston

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