Abstract
This article puts the self-interest hypothesis to an empirical test by analysing the 2004 referendum on fiscal equalisation in Switzerland. That vote put forth a series of reforms which created regional winners and loser in terms of having to pay or receiving unconditional funding. Although Switzerland is usually portrayed as a paradigmatic case in terms of inter-regional solidarity and national integration, we show that rational and selfish cost-benefit calculations strongly mattered for the end-result. We rely on a multi-level model with referendum and other data on more than 2700 municipalities and all 26 cantons. More broadly, our findings confirm that rational choice theory works well for voting on straightforward monetary issues with a clearly defined group of winners and losers. However, symbolic interests such as party strength and cultural predispositions against state intervention and in favour of subsidiarity also matter and need to be taken into account alongside.
Acknowledgments
Research for this article has partly been funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (project grant No. 10001A_159343 and Ambizione grant no. PZ00P1_161257). We also thank Leonce Röth for comments on an earlier version and two anonymous reviewers for helpful advice.
Appendix
Codebook.
| Variable | Operationalisation | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Dependent variables | ||
| %-yes votes (log.) | Share of yes-votes in the fiscal equalisation referendum of 28 November 2004 | Swissvotes (2016) |
| Turnout (log.) | Share of valid votes from total of votes cast in the fiscal equalisation referendum of 28 November 2004 | Swissvotes (2016) |
| Independent variables (local level) | ||
| Income (log.) | Mean per capita income of resident population; year 2003 | ESTV (2016) |
| Age | Share of people above 65 years old; year 2000 | BFS (2016) |
| Education | Proportion of people with tertiary education from total resident population between 26 and 65 years old; year 2000 | BFS (2016) |
| German | 1 if the share of German-speaking resident is 50% or higher, else 0; year 2000 | BFS (2016) |
| Catholics | Share of roman-catholic residents; year 2000 | BFS (2016) |
| Party strength | Votes shares (FDP, CVP, SP and SVP) at the 2003 federal parliament elections (National Council) | BFS (2016) |
| Trust in government | Meany yes-share in 8 low-conflict referenda voted between 2001 and 2003 (see also Table A2) | Milic (2008), Swissvotes (2016) |
| Population (log.) | Total resident population; year 2004 | BFS (2016) |
| Services | Share of people working in the service sector, year 2001 | BFS (2016) |
| Commuters | Share of commuters from total of resident workforce and students, year 2000 | BFS (2016) |
| Foreigners | Share of foreign residents; year 2000 | BFS (2016) |
| Independent variables (regional level/context) | ||
| Net benefit | Absolute difference in CHF between old and new federal system per canton divided by its population | Fivaz and Ladner (2005), BR (2005) |
| Gross benefit | Expected payments arising out of the new fiscal equalisation system, in CHF per cantonal inhabitant | Fivaz and Ladner (2005), BR (2005) |
| Compulsory voting | 1 for Schaffhausen, where voting is compulsory, 0 for all other contexts | Bühlmann and Freitag (2006) |
Low-conflict referenda, 2001–2003.
| No. | Date | Title | Pro-Government (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 475 | 4.3.2001 | Citizen’s initiative “For lower-priced medicines” | 69.1 |
| 479 | 10.6.2001 | Federal decree of 15 December 2000 on withdrawal of the duty to have permission to create new bishoprics | 64.2 |
| 488 | 2.6.2002 | Citizen’s initiative “For mother and child – protection of the unborn child and assistance for mothers in need” | 81.8 |
| 490 | 22.9.2002 | Federal law on the electricity sector | 47.4 |
| 493 | 9.2.2003 | Federal decree on amendment to citizens’ rights | 70.4 |
| 494 | 9.2.2003 | Federal law on adjusting canton’s contributions to hospital costs | 77.4 |
| 495 | 18.5.2003 | Amendment to the Federal law on army and military administration | 76.0 |
| 496 | 18.5.2003 | Federal law on civil defence | 80.6 |
Source: Milic (2008), English titles from http://www.c2d.ch/ [October 2016].
Descriptive statistics.
| Variable | n | Min | Max | Mean | Median | SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| %-yes votes (log.) | 2764 | 2.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
| Turnout (log.) | 2764 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.2 |
| Income (log.) | 2730 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 0.2 |
| Age | 2764 | 4.1 | 19.3 | 25.5 | 24.1 | 9.8 |
| Education | 2764 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 18.5 | 17.3 | 7.6 |
| German | 2764 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.5 |
| Catholics | 2764 | 0.5 | 100.0 | 43.4 | 34.1 | 28.5 |
| Population (log.) | 2764 | 3.0 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 1.3 |
| FDP vote share | 2764 | 0.0 | 90.8 | 17.0 | 15.3 | 10.9 |
| CVP vote share | 2764 | 0.0 | 88.3 | 17.0 | 9.3 | 18.6 |
| SVP vote share | 2764 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 29.5 | 28.8 | 15.9 |
| SP vote share | 2764 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 19.9 | 19.2 | 10.2 |
| Trust in government | 2764 | 32.8 | 66.7 | 69.4 | 70.0 | 5.0 |
| Services | 2710 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 46.6 | 45.5 | 20.9 |
| Commuters | 2763 | 1.1 | 95.7 | 61.7 | 64.3 | 14.5 |
| Foreigners | 2764 | 0.0 | 53.6 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| Gross benefits/100 | 26 | −14.57 | 17.93 | 5.46 | 4.47 | 5.77 |
| Net benefits/100 | 26 | −11.85 | 6.24 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 1.49 |
| Compulsory voting | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 0.1 |
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