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Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter November 3, 2018

Theoretical Expectations and Actual Outcomes of Electoral Systems: How to Measure the Size of the Deviation?

Miroslav Nemčok and Jakub Šedo
From the journal World Political Science

Abstract

The article criticises current conceptual frameworks focused on the evaluation of the performance of electoral systems. It offers a new tool allowing researchers to measure the size of the deviation of electoral outcomes from theoretical expectations. The index d=log[NS/(MS)1/6] is built on the Seat Product (Taagepera, Rein (2007b) Predicting Party Sizes: The Logic of Simple Electoral Systems. New York: Oxford University Press) and captures the deviations of electoral outcomes from predictions solely on the basis of two institutional factors – average district magnitude (M) and size of assembly (S). The theoretical background of index d is explained, and its reliability is further supported by conventional econometric methods based on empirical data.

Appendix

Table A1:

List of Included Elections.

CountryElections
Armenia20072012
Australia194619491951195419551958196119631966
196919721974197519771980198319841987
199019931996199820012004200720102013
Austria194919531956195919621966197019711975
197919831986199019941995199920022006
20082013
Belgium194619491950195419581961196519681971
197419771978198119851987199119951999
2003200720102014
Bulgaria199119941997200120052009201320142017
Canada194519491953195719581962196319651968
197219741979198019841988199319972000
20042006200820112015
Croatia200020032007201120152016
Cyprus19962001200620112016
Czech Republic19901992199619982002200620102013
Denmark194519471950195319531957196019641966
196819711973197519771979198119841987
198819901994199820012005200720112015
Estonia1992199519992003200720112015
Finland194519481951195419581962196619701972
197519791983198719911995199920032007
20112015
France194619511956195819621967196819731978
19811986198819931997200220072012
Iceland194619491953195619591959196319671971
197419781979198319871991199519992003
2007200920132016
Ireland194819511954195719611965196919731977
198119821982198719891992199720022007
20112016
Israel194919511955195919611965196919731977
198119841988199219961999200320062009
20132015
Italy194619481953195819631968197219761979
198319871992
Japan196019631967196919721976197919801983
198619901993
Latvia199820022006201020112014
Luxembourg194519481951195419591964196819741979
1984198919941999200420092013
Macedonia19901994200220062008201120142016
Malta199619982003200820132017
Moldavia1994199820012005200920092010
Montenegro199019921996199820012002200620092012
Netherlands194619481952195619591963196719711972
197719811982198619891994199820022003
2006201020122017
New Zealand194619491951195419571960196319661969
19721975197819811984198719901993
Norway194519491953195719611965196919731977
198119851989199319972001200520092013
Poland19911993199720012005200720112015
Portugal197519761979198019831985198719911995
199920022005200920112015
Romania19901992199620002004
Serbia199019921993199720002003200720082012
20142016
Slovakia199019921994199820022006201020122016
Slovenia19901992199620002004200820112014
South Africa19941999200420092014
Spain197719791982198619891993199620002004
2008201120152016
Sweden194819521956195819601964196819701973
197619791982198519881991199419982002
200620102014
Switzerland194719511955195919631967197119751979
198319871991199519992003200720112015
Turkey195019541957196119651969197319771983
198719911995199920022007201120152015
Ukraine199420062007
UK194519501951195519591964196619701974
197419791983198719921997200120052010
20152017
USA194819521956196019641968197219761980
198419881992199620002004200820122016

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Article note

This article was written at Masaryk University with the support of the Specific University Research Grant provided by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic.


Published Online: 2018-11-03
Published in Print: 2018-10-25

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