Zusammenfassung
Die EZB hat bereits zum 1. Januar 1999 ihre Arbeit aufgenommen. Sie ist daher ihren Kinderschuhen längst entwachsen. In diesem Aufsatz diskutieren wir das neue, symmetrische „2 %-Inflationsziel“, das Ausmaß an früheren Zielverletzungen, aber auch das zweite, nie wirklich explizit formulierte Ziel der EZB, das den Zusammenhalt der Eurozone zum Gegenstand hat. Die Theorie optimaler Währungsräume hält mit Roland Vaubel’s Kriterium der Variabilität der Inflationsraten ein überzeugendes Instrument bereit, um den Grad des monetären Zusammenhalts in der Eurozone zu messen. Danach hat sich der Europäische Währungsraum zwischen 1999 und 2020 in manchen Teilperioden ziemlich, in anderen weniger gut dargestellt. Unsere eigenen empirischen Untersuchungen deuten allerdings nicht auf die Existenz kleinerer Ländergruppen innerhalb der Eurozone hin, die einen signifikant besseren Währungsraum als die heutige Eurozone abgeben würden. Die Kernziele der EZB, nämlich der Erhalt der Eurozone einerseits und die Sicherung von Preisniveaustabilität andererseits, stehen künftig nicht mehr länger (wie zwischen 2008 und 2020) komplementär zueinander, sondern befinden sich in Zeiten steigender Inflationsraten in einem direkten Zielkonflikt.
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Annex
Inflation rates in the Euro zone (1999–2020)
|
Year |
EUR |
GER |
BEL |
NET |
LUX |
FRA |
ITA |
IRL |
POR |
SP |
|
1999 |
1.19 |
0.64 |
1.14 |
2.03 |
1.03 |
0.56 |
1.54 |
2.52 |
2.17 |
2.24 |
|
2000 |
1.90 |
1.40 |
2.68 |
2.33 |
3.77 |
1.82 |
2.63 |
5.18 |
2.81 |
3.49 |
|
2001 |
2.19 |
1.89 |
2.43 |
5.11 |
2.40 |
1.78 |
2.29 |
4.02 |
4.41 |
2.82 |
|
2002 |
2.08 |
1.36 |
1.55 |
3.87 |
2.05 |
1.93 |
2.64 |
4.47 |
3.70 |
3.59 |
|
2003 |
1.96 |
0.98 |
1.53 |
2.22 |
2.54 |
2.18 |
2.82 |
3.93 |
3.23 |
3.10 |
|
2004 |
2.01 |
1.81 |
1.86 |
1.39 |
3.23 |
2.33 |
2.25 |
2.29 |
2.51 |
3.06 |
|
2005 |
2.17 |
1.90 |
2.53 |
1.48 |
3.77 |
1.90 |
2.20 |
2.24 |
2.13 |
3.39 |
|
2006 |
2.20 |
1.86 |
2.33 |
1.66 |
2.96 |
1.89 |
2.27 |
2.63 |
3.05 |
3.55 |
|
2007 |
2.34 |
2.29 |
1.81 |
1.57 |
2.65 |
1.61 |
1.99 |
2.88 |
2.42 |
2.85 |
|
2008 |
3.66 |
2.68 |
4.49 |
2.22 |
4.08 |
3.15 |
3.55 |
3.22 |
2.64 |
4.12 |
|
2009 |
0.99 |
0.22 |
–0.01 |
0.97 |
0.01 |
0.11 |
0.77 |
–1.71 |
–0.89 |
–0.24 |
|
2010 |
2.08 |
1.19 |
2.33 |
0.93 |
2.80 |
1.74 |
1.65 |
–1.64 |
1.38 |
2.05 |
|
2011 |
3.10 |
2.47 |
3.36 |
2.47 |
3.73 |
2.29 |
2.92 |
1.25 |
3.56 |
3.04 |
|
2012 |
2.64 |
2.09 |
2.63 |
2.83 |
2.89 |
2.21 |
3.25 |
1.85 |
2.78 |
2.44 |
|
2013 |
1.51 |
1.64 |
1.25 |
2.56 |
1.70 |
1.00 |
1.32 |
0.50 |
0.43 |
1.53 |
|
2014 |
0.54 |
0.81 |
0.49 |
0.32 |
0.70 |
0.60 |
0.20 |
0.30 |
–0.15 |
–0.20 |
|
2015 |
–0.01 |
0.10 |
0.62 |
0.21 |
0.06 |
0.09 |
0.10 |
0.00 |
0.50 |
–0.63 |
|
2016 |
0.25 |
0.40 |
1.77 |
0.11 |
0.04 |
0.31 |
–0.10 |
–0.20 |
0.64 |
–0.34 |
|
2017 |
1.60 |
1.70 |
2.20 |
1.30 |
2.10 |
1.20 |
1.30 |
0.30 |
1.60 |
2.00 |
|
2018 |
1.80 |
1.90 |
2.30 |
1.60 |
2.00 |
2.10 |
1.20 |
0.70 |
1.20 |
1.70 |
|
2019 |
1.40 |
1.40 |
1.20 |
2.70 |
1.60 |
1.30 |
0.60 |
0.90 |
0.30 |
0.80 |
|
2020 |
1.60 |
0.40 |
0.40 |
1.10 |
0.00 |
0.50 |
–0.10 |
–0.50 |
–0.10 |
–0.30 |
Source: Eurostat 17/06/2021
Inflation rates in the Euro zone (1999–2020)
|
Year |
FIN |
AUT |
GRE |
SLO |
MAL |
CYP |
SLV |
EST |
LAT |
LIT |
|
1999 |
1.32 |
0.52 |
2.15 |
6.12 |
2.30 |
1.15 |
10.44 |
3.09 |
2.11 |
1.45 |
|
2000 |
2.95 |
1.96 |
2.90 |
8.95 |
3.03 |
4.86 |
12.19 |
3.93 |
2.62 |
1.09 |
|
2001 |
2.67 |
2.29 |
3.63 |
8.55 |
2.52 |
1.99 |
7.15 |
5.63 |
2.54 |
1.54 |
|
2002 |
2.00 |
1.69 |
3.93 |
7.48 |
2.62 |
2.79 |
3.51 |
3.59 |
1.96 |
0.34 |
|
2003 |
1.29 |
1.29 |
3.45 |
5.68 |
1.92 |
3.97 |
8.43 |
1.39 |
2.95 |
–1.09 |
|
2004 |
0.15 |
1.96 |
3.02 |
3.65 |
2.73 |
1.90 |
7.48 |
3.03 |
6.18 |
1.16 |
|
2005 |
0.77 |
2.11 |
3.48 |
2.47 |
2.52 |
2.02 |
2.79 |
4.12 |
6.88 |
2.67 |
|
2006 |
1.28 |
1.69 |
3.31 |
2.54 |
2.57 |
2.25 |
4.26 |
4.45 |
6.57 |
3.76 |
|
2007 |
1.57 |
2.20 |
3.00 |
3.76 |
0.70 |
2.17 |
1.89 |
6.74 |
10.09 |
5.82 |
|
2008 |
3.93 |
3.23 |
4.23 |
5.52 |
4.68 |
4.38 |
3.94 |
10.61 |
15.25 |
11.10 |
|
2009 |
1.63 |
0.40 |
1.35 |
0.87 |
1.83 |
0.17 |
0.92 |
0.20 |
3.26 |
4.16 |
|
2010 |
1.69 |
1.69 |
4.70 |
2.10 |
2.05 |
2.57 |
0.70 |
2.73 |
–1.22 |
1.19 |
|
2011 |
3.32 |
3.56 |
3.11 |
2.09 |
2.52 |
3.48 |
4.08 |
5.08 |
4.22 |
4.12 |
|
2012 |
3.15 |
2.57 |
1.04 |
2.81 |
3.22 |
3.10 |
3.74 |
4.22 |
2.28 |
3.16 |
|
2013 |
2.22 |
2.11 |
–0.85 |
1.92 |
0.98 |
0.38 |
1.46 |
3.25 |
0.02 |
1.17 |
|
2014 |
1.21 |
1.46 |
–1.39 |
0.37 |
0.77 |
–0.27 |
–0.10 |
0.47 |
0.69 |
0.24 |
|
2015 |
–0.16 |
0.81 |
–1.10 |
–0.75 |
1.17 |
–1.55 |
–0.35 |
0.07 |
0.21 |
–0.68 |
|
2016 |
0.39 |
0.97 |
0.02 |
–0.16 |
0.90 |
–1.22 |
–0.48 |
0.80 |
0.10 |
0.68 |
|
2017 |
0.80 |
2.20 |
1.10 |
1.60 |
1.30 |
0.70 |
1.40 |
3.70 |
2.90 |
3.70 |
|
2018 |
1.20 |
2.10 |
0.80 |
1.90 |
1.70 |
0.80 |
2.50 |
3.40 |
2.60 |
2.50 |
|
2019 |
1.10 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
1.70 |
1.50 |
0.50 |
2.80 |
2.30 |
2.70 |
2.20 |
|
2020 |
0.40 |
1.40 |
–1.30 |
–0.30 |
0.80 |
–1.10 |
2.00 |
–0.60 |
0.10 |
1.10 |
Source: Eurostat 17/06/2021
Variances of inflation rates for countries/different sizes and compositions of the Eurozone (1999–2020)
|
Countries |
1999–2006 |
2007–2010 |
2011–2015 |
2016–2020 |
1999–2020 |
|
EUR |
0.11 |
1.20 |
1.76 |
0.38 |
0.73 |
|
GER |
0.23 |
1.24 |
0.93 |
0.51 |
0.55 |
|
BEL |
0.32 |
3.44 |
1.61 |
0.62 |
1.07 |
|
NET |
1.71 |
0.37 |
1.68 |
0.87 |
1.37 |
|
LUX |
0.85 |
2.92 |
2.79 |
1.10 |
1.74 |
|
FRA |
0.29 |
1.55 |
0.96 |
0.51 |
0.69 |
|
ITA |
0.15 |
1.34 |
2.19 |
0.46 |
1.22 |
|
IRL |
1.27 |
7.45 |
0.57 |
0.35 |
3.67 |
|
POR |
0.61 |
2.62 |
2.68 |
0.46 |
2.06 |
|
SP |
0.21 |
3.36 |
2.58 |
1.19 |
2.28 |
|
FIN |
0.88 |
1.32 |
2.10 |
0.14 |
1.17 |
|
AUT |
0.32 |
1.38 |
1.11 |
0.26 |
0.60 |
|
GRE |
0.30 |
2.25 |
3.63 |
0.88 |
3.73 |
|
SLO |
-- |
4.10 |
2.09 |
1.17 |
7.85 |
|
MAL |
-- |
2.83 |
1.16 |
0.15 |
0.97 |
|
CYP |
-- |
2.97 |
4.75 |
1.01 |
3.25 |
|
SLV |
-- |
2.18 |
4.32 |
1.69 |
11.96 |
|
EST |
-- |
-- |
5.03 |
3.28 |
6.29 |
|
LET |
-- |
-- |
3.13 |
2.09 |
14.09 |
|
LIT |
-- |
4.00 |
1.43 |
6.70 |
Source: Eurostat 17/06/2021
© 2022 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
