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Steuerungsabstinenz als Ordnungsvision: Soziologische Beobachtungen zur Rational Expectations Revolution in der Makroökonomik

Hanno Pahl

Zusammenfassung

Die moderne Makroökonomik ist seitens der Soziologie nahezu unbeobachtet und unkommentiert geblieben. Dieses Versäumnis betrifft insbesondere die Arbeiten von Robert Lucas, die zwar außerhalb der Disziplin nicht gleichermaßen sichtbar waren wie die politisch wirkungsmächtigen Eingaben Friedmans und Hayeks, denen aber ein nicht zu unterschätzender Einfluss auf die Fortentwicklung der modernen Makroökonomik zugeschrieben werden muss (Rational Expectations Revolution, New Classical Macroeconomics). Auf indirektem Weg – wesentlich über die Propagierung neuer Modellierungstechniken und neuer wissenschaftlicher Standards – wurden eine dezidierte Steuerungsskepsis und eine marktaffirmative Weltsicht kultiviert. Der Text offeriert einen pointierten Überblick über makroökonomische Entwicklungen nach dem Ende der Hegemonie des Keynesianismus der neoklassischen Synthese und legt das Augenmerk einerseits auf Modellierungstechniken, andererseits auf den Wandel von Steuerungsvorstellungen. Es wird eine Perspektive auf makroökonomisches Wissen offeriert, die sich gleichermaßen von linearen Fortschrittsnarrativen wie von pauschalen Verfallsgeschichten absetzt. Sie stellt eine Grundlage für weiterführende soziologische Untersuchungen bereit und erlaubt auch eine bessere Einschätzung der aktuellen Debatten um eine Krise der Mainstream-Wirtschaftswissenschaften.

Abstract

The field of modern macroeconomics has not received much sociological attention. This neglect concerns for instance the work of Robert Lucas, that – while being less visible and less politically influential than Friedmans and Hayeks contributions – had an enormous impact on further developments in macroeconomics (Rational Expectations Revolution, New Classical Macroeconomics). In a more indirect manner, by proposing new modelling techniques and new standards of science, Lucas and his followers cultivated market-affirmative positions, including the proposition of a general policy-ineffectiveness. The text offers a pointed outline of core-developments in modern macroeconomics after the hegemony of the Keynesianism of the neoclassical synthesis, specifically addressing modelling techniques and changing visions of control. The perspective outlined is one that differs from linear narratives of progress as well as from simple stories of decay. It offers a possible starting point for more detailed sociological investigations into macroeconomic knowledge and enables a sounder appraisal of the recent debates about a crisis of mainstream economics.

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