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Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter May 3, 2011

An Alternative to the NFL Draft Pick Value Chart Based upon Player Performance

Michael Schuckers

In this paper, we consider the National Football League Pick Value Chart and propose an alternative. The current Pick Value Chart was created approximately 20 years ago and has been used since to determine the value of draft selections for trading of draft selections. For this paper, we analyze the first 255 draft selections for the years 1991 to 2001. As part of our analysis, we consider four non-position dependent metrics to measure and model player performance at each of the first 255 draft selections. We perform a nonparametric regression of each performance metric onto player's selections. A comparison is then made between each fitted line and the Pick Value Chart. Having considered these comparisons, we propose an alternative Pick Value Chart.

Published Online: 2011-5-3

©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston

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