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Licensed Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter August 31, 2011

The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

James Thurlow, Finn Tarp, Simon McCoy, Nguyen Manh Hai, Clemens Breisinger and Channing Arndt

Economic growth in Vietnam was resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. Impacts on employment and poverty are also disputed. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose growth and distributional outcomes. Results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis raised employment and reduced poverty by favoring labor-intensive exports. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains and pushed a million workers into unemployment and 3 million people below the poverty line. Overall, the crises and government stimulus package left growth and poverty in Vietnam virtually changed from a baseline (no crises) path.

Published Online: 2011-8-31

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