Surprise Attack: The Victim’s Perspective

Ephraim Kam

Published by Harvard University Press 1988

Surprise Attack

The Victim’s Perspective

Ephraim Kam
Preface by: Thomas C. Schelling

https://doi.org/10.4159/harvard.9780674493957

Overview
Contents

About this book

A new version of this book is now available.

The striking thing about surprise attack is how frequently it succeeds--even in our own day, when improvements in communications and intelligence gathering should make it extremly difficult to sneak up on anyone. Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to to anticipate the coming war.

Kam analyzes eleven major surprise attacks that have been launched since the outbreak of World War II (by no means the only ones that occured), starting with the German invasion of Denmark and Norway in 1940 and ending with the Eyptian-Syrian attack on Isreal in 1973, in a systematic comparative effort to find the elements that successful sorties have in common. He tackles the problem on four levels: the individual analyst, the small group, the large organization, and the decision makers.

Emphasizing the psychological aspects of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties, mistakes, and idées fixes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgmental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints.

Author / Editor information

Kam Ephraim :

Ephraim Kam is Deputy Head, Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, Tel-Aviv University, Israel.Schelling Thomas C. :

Thomas C. Schelling is Distinguished University Professor, Department of Economics and School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland and Lucius N. Littauer Professor of Political Economy, Emeritus, Harvard University. He is co-recipient of the 2005 Nobel Prize in Economics.

Topics

Frontmatter Publicly Available Download PDF	i
Acknowledgments Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	vii
Contents Publicly Available Download PDF	ix
Foreword Thomas C. Schelling Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	xiii
Introduction Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	1
PART ONE. The Components of Surprise Attack
1. The Essence of Surprise Attack Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	7
2. Information and Indicators Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	37
3. Intentions and Capabilities Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	56
PART TWO. Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis
4. Conceptions and Incoming Information Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	85
5. The Process of Analysis Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	115
PART THREE. The Environment
6. The Analyst and the Small Group Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	159
7. Organizational Obstacles Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	176
8. Intelligence and Decision Makers Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	199
CONCLUSION Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	213
Notes. Bibliography. Index
Notes Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	236
Bibliography Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	241
Index Requires Authentication Unlicensed Licensed Download PDF	259

(Deutsch)

Language: English
Publisher: Harvard University Press
Edition: Reprint 2014
Audience: Professional and scholarly;
Pages
- Front matter: 15
- Main content: 266
Illustrations
- Illustrations: 1
- Tables: 3
- Other: 3 tables, 1 line illustration
Keywords: Preemptive attack (Military science); Surprise.; International relations.; Military art and science.; Military history, Modern -- 20th century.

eBook

Published: October 1, 2013
ISBN: 9780674493957

Hardcover

Published: February 5, 1988
ISBN: 9780674493964