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BY 4.0 license Open Access Published by De Gruyter Open Access August 13, 2014

How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?

Ray C. Fair
From the journal Economics


An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

JEL Classification: E50


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Received: 2014-06-10
Accepted: 2014-08-07
Published Online: 2014-08-13
Published in Print: 2014-12-01

© 2014 Ray C. Fair, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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