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BY 4.0 license Open Access Published by De Gruyter Open Access August 13, 2014

How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?

Ray C. Fair
From the journal Economics

Abstract

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

JEL Classification: E50

References

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Received: 2014-06-10
Accepted: 2014-08-07
Published Online: 2014-08-13
Published in Print: 2014-12-01

© 2014 Ray C. Fair, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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