Relation Between Variables of Preadmission, Medical School Performance, and COMLEX–USA Levels 1 and 2 Performance

Medical schools have traditionally used Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) scores and undergraduate grade point averages (UGPAs) in the selection of candidates for admission. The validity of using preadmission academic variables to predict student performance has been studied. Most studies have focused on the relation of these variables to medical licensing examination scores as performance end-points. Only a few studies have examined the relationship between preadmission variables, osteopathic medical school performance, and Comprehensive Osteopathic Medical Licensing Examination–USA (COMLEX–USA) performance, and the results were not consistent. Medical College Admission Test scores were reported to be correlated with COMLEX–USA Level 1 and Level 2 scores,^1,2 whereas another study found no significant correlations between preadmission data and COMLEX–USA Level 1 scores.³ The relation of preadmission variables to osteopathic medical school performance and COMLEX–USA scores has not been sufficiently investigated at other schools. There has also been a lack of predictive validity studies of the relation of pre-medical and medical school performance to COMLEX–USA Levels 1 and 2.

Researchers in the current study previously reported significant correlations between MCAT subscores and year 1 and year 2 GPAs and COMLEX–USA Level 1 performance at the New York College of Osteopathic Medicine of the New York Institute of Technology (NYCOM), Old Westbury.⁴ The purpose of the present study was to further examine the relation between preadmission variables and student academic performance, including year 1 and 2 GPAs, individual course grades, and COMLEX–USA Level 1 performance at NYCOM.

Research Review

Methods

The class of 2001 study group comprised 174 students (93 men and 81 women). These students completed the first 2 years of the standard NYCOM curriculum in 1999 and took the COMLEX–USA Level 1 examination in 1999 and the Level 2 examination in 2000. The database for analysis included preadmission academic variables, medical school course grades in years 1 and 2, and COMLEX–USA Level 1 and 2 scores. Individual course grades were obtained from institutional databases, and total COMLEX–USA scores were those reported by the National Board of Osteopathic Medical Examiners to the institution. Individual course grades used were those for written examinations. Grade point averages were calculated for the first year (year 1 GPA), the second year (year 2 GPA), and years 1 and 2 (2-year cumulative GPA).

Preadmission data were obtained from the American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine Application Service. The preadmission academic variables used in the analysis were MCAT subscores and UGPAs. Medical College Admission Test subscores used were verbal reasoning (verbal MCAT), physical sciences (physical MCAT), and biological MCAT. Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated with Bonferroni adjustments. Researchers performed multiple linear regression analysis by entering all independent variables in a single step and constructed regression models to identify an optimal combination of predictors of COMLEX–USA Level 1 performance. All statistical analyses were calculated with Statistical Program for the Social Sciences (SPSS) statistical software for Windows, version 10.0.

Results

Correlation Between GPAs and COMLEX–USA Level 1 and Level 2 Performance

The correlations between medical school GPAs and COMLEX–USA scores are shown in Table 3. COMLEX–USA Level 1 scores were strongly correlated with both the year 1 and 2 GPAs. The correlations between year 1 and 2 GPAs and COMLEX–USA Level 2 scores were lower than for Level 1 scores. COMLEX–USA Level 1 performance and COMLEX–USA Level 2 performance were correlated (0.723). The year 1 and year 2 GPAs were predictors of COMLEX–USA Level 1 scores in a regression model (R² = 0.702). The addition of preadmission variables to the model with the year 1 and year 2 GPAs model (Table 2) resulted in a slightly higher R² value (0.774).

Comment

This study has demonstrated significant correlations between academic preadmission variables, osteopathic medical school performance in the first 2 years, and COMLEX–USA Level 1 and 2 scores. The physical and biological MCAT subscores were correlated with both year 1 and 2 osteopathic medical school GPAs. Regression models identified the physical and biological MCAT subscores as predictor variables for COMLEX–USA Level 1 and the verbal MCAT subscore as a predictor for COMLEX–USA Level 2. Most previous studies have used composite MCAT scores (sum of the individual subscores) as a variable. Researchers reporting on the predictive validity of MCAT scores noted that the use of MCAT composite scores limits its use as a predictor and recommended that future studies investigate the differential validities of subscores.¹¹ The use of MCAT subscores in the present study was more informative. While the preadmission variables alone were not highly predictive of either COMLEX–USA Level 1 or 2 performance, together with other performance measures preadmission variables improved the total predictive validity.

Only the physical and biological MCAT subscores were moderately correlated with first-year grades. Individual course grades in the first 2 years were strongly correlated to COMLEX–USA Level 1 scores with the exception of a few year 2 courses. Although many of the correlations between course grades and COMLEX–USA Level 1 are similar to some previously reported,³ differences among school courses make data comparisons between individual schools difficult to interpret.

Individual year 1 and 2 course grades with preadmission variables were used in predictive models of COMLEX–USA Level 1 scores. In all the models tested, the addition of preadmission variables raised the predictive value. The year 2 courses' model had a higher predictive validity than the year 1 model. The combined model, using all year 1 and 2 course grades and preadmission variables, had a higher predictive validity than the cumulative year 1 and 2 GPAs model. The predictive value of these models is higher than previously reported Level 1 models.⁸ The higher values found for COMLEX–USA Level 1 predictive models at NYCOM may be due to greater class heterogeneity and larger class size. More detailed studies of data from other NYCOM classes are needed to further confirm the predictive value of the COMLEX–USA Level 1 predictive models. A factor that might improve the predictive value of the preadmission variables would be the use of an undergraduate school selectivity index.

This study has identified many academic performance variables that predict both year 1 and 2 GPAs and COMLEX–USA Level 1 performance. These findings may be useful in predicting future performance of NYCOM students on Level 1 examinations. Further research is needed to determine the relationships between these variables, performance in the third and fourth years, and performance on COMLEX–USA Levels 2 and 3.