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November 22, 2021
Abstract
An important stylized fact in the literature is that more Workers’ Compensation claims for difficult-to-diagnose injuries are filed on Monday than on any other day of the week. This paper studies the impact of recreational marijuana sales legalization on Monday work injury claims. Using restricted-use Workers’ Compensation claim data in Oregon and a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model, I find the probability of overall Monday injuries increase by 4 percentage points after recreational marijuana sales legalization. The event study graphs suggest the medium-term effects appear to equal the short-term effects. Additionally, I do not find strong evidence to support those difficult-to-diagnose Monday injuries disproportionately increase after recreational marijuana sales legalization, suggesting a limited moral hazard of Monday injury claiming behavior after recreational marijuana sales legalization.
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November 18, 2021
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I examine the relationship between mask usage and COVID-19 deaths at the county level. When examining this relationship, even the direction caused by the potential endogeneity bias is unclear. In one direction, characteristics that are known to correlate with a larger amount of potential COVID-19 deaths, such as an older population, may make people more likely to wear masks. This will cause a bias that makes mask usage look less effective than it truly is. In the other direction, areas with higher risk tolerances may have less mask usage, but may at the same time be engaging in other behavior that puts them at higher risk for contracting COVID-19. This will cause a bias that makes mask usage look more effective than it truly is. The identification approach exploits a large set of controls and employs percentage of vote for Donald Trump in the 2016 election as an instrumental variable for mask usage. The main finding is that a one percentage point increase in the number of individuals who say they often or frequently wear a mask when within six feet of people will reduce COVID-19 deaths in a county by 10.5%, or six deaths in the average county.
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November 15, 2021
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We use detailed administrative data from Kentucky to provide robust descriptive evidence on the relationship between the General Educational Development (GED) degree, college readiness, and early post-secondary (PSE) academic performance. Following previous work in this area, we address selection issues by focusing on a sample of students who are identified as at-risk prior to high school entry. Our results suggest the GED credential is not a credible signal of PSE readiness, particularly in mathematics. GED graduates attain a lower first semester GPA and are also less likely to re-enroll in second semester courses. We also find that changes made to the GED exam in 2014 to enhance student readiness in PSE institutions did not yield meaningful improvements. Finally, we investigate the extent to which differences in math coursework can explain estimated GED-related math readiness gaps, finding coursework to account for about for about 40 percent of the observed gap.
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November 12, 2021
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This paper measures monetary and non-monetary poverty among urban local and rural migrant groups in the urban labour market in China, capturing incidence, intensity and inequality of poverty. To measure non-monetary poverty in multiple dimensions the chosen indicators are education, health status, health insurance and pension insurance. Using data from the China Household Income Project for the years 2002, 2007, and 2013, it appears that although monetary poverty in both groups is low, migrants have higher levels of non-monetary deprivation for various levels of poverty thresholds. Compared to the urban locals, the rural migrants experienced relatively less severe poverty than mild or moderate poverty during 2002 and 2007. Our Shapley decomposition exercise on non-monetary poverty measure reveals that the incidence contributes most to the urban-migrant gap, and the contribution of intensity is higher than that of inequality. The most important factors in multidimensional poverty for both groups are health insurance and pension insurance in all years. Our logit analysis shows that the effects of demographic characteristics, level of contract, occupation, and the industry have different impacts on these two groups.
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November 9, 2021
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We investigated the long-term effects of birthplace favoritism by top-ranking politicians on the quality of education in Vietnam. We used over 1 million test scores from the 2009 and 2014 Vietnamese national university entrance examinations. We examined both the different timing of political terms and the total years of birthplace favoritism. Using the school fixed effects, we found that birthplace favoritism did not have any significant impacts, regardless of the timing and duration of such favoritism. We did not find evidence for such impacts in the distribution of test scores either. The results also suggest that national entrance examinations were unaffected by birthplace favoritism up to 2014.
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February 1, 2020
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This paper uses a unique data set on 143,000 poor households from Northern Bangladesh to analyze the effects of microfinance membership on a household’s ability to cope with seasonal famine known as Monga. We develop an identification and estimation strategy that exploits a jump and a kink at the 10-decimal land ownership-threshold driven by the Microfinance Institution screening process to ensure repayment by excluding the ultra-poor. Evidence shows that microfinance membership improves food security during Monga, especially for the poorest households who survive at the margin of one and two meals a day. The positive effects on food security are, however, not driven by higher income, as microcredit does not improve the ability to migrate for work, nor does it reduce dependence on distress sale of labor. The evidence is consistent with consumption smoothing being the primary mechanism behind the gains in food security of MFI households during the season of starvation.