Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

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Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

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Journal Overview

Open Access June 7, 2023

A New INAR(1) Model for ℤ-Valued Time Series Using the Relative Binomial Thinning Operator

Maher Kachour, Hassan S. Bakouch, Zohreh Mohammadi

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Abstract

A new first-order integer-valued autoregressive process (INAR(1)) with extended Poisson innovations is introduced based on a signed version of the thinning operator, called relative binomial thinning operator, which can be considered as an extension of standard binomial thinning operator introduced by Steutel, F.W. and van Harn, K. (1979. Discrete analogues of self-decomposability and stability. Ann. Probab. 7: 893–899). It is appropriate for modeling Z$\mathbb{Z}$-valued time series and either positive or negative correlations. Some properties of the process are established. Conditional least squares, Yule–Walker and conditional maximum likelihood methods are considered for the parameter estimation of the model. Moreover, simulation experiments are carried out to attest to the performance of the estimation methods. The applicability of the proposed model is investigated through a practical data set of the Saudi stock market.

Open Access June 1, 2023

Minimum Wage Effects on Job Attachment: A Gender Perspective

Eva García-Morán, Ming-Jin Jiang, Heiko Rachinger

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Abstract

We examine whether the effects of the introduction of a minimum wage on low-pay employment duration in Germany in 2015 are heterogeneous by gender. In order to disentangle the effects on women and men, we estimate a duration model with unobserved heterogeneity in which we allow gender differences and differences before and after the introduction of the minimum wage. We find that the reform does affect women and men differently, in particular, it mainly increases men’s job attachment. These gender differences in job attachment are the strongest for full-time employment. In consequence, although the minimum wage may have been set up as a gender-neutral instrument, in an indirect way, it affects women and men differently. We discuss different mechanisms that could account for our result and carry out several robustness checks.

Open Access May 24, 2023

Socio-economic Circumstances at Birth and Early Motherhood: The Case of the “Daughters of the Wall”

Kristin J. Kleinjans

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Abstract

The fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 resulted in a severe economic downturn and a stark temporary decline in fertility in East Germany. But did it also affect the fertility of future generations? In this paper, I investigate early motherhood – a marker of lifetime disadvantage – of those born in the years immediately after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Using data from the German Socioeconomic Panel and a difference-in-differences specification comparing the “Daughters of the Wall” with East Germans born in adjacent years and with West Germans in order to control for region fixed-effects and time-varying confounders, I find that these Daughters of the Wall were more likely to have children in young adulthood if they did not grow up with both of their parents. These results suggest that severe recessions increase early motherhood of those born into disadvantage, increasing the transmission of disadvantage across generations.

Open Access May 23, 2023

Does Early Educational Tracking Contribute to Gender Gaps in Test Achievement? A Cross-Country Assessment

Theresa Lorenz, Alyssa Schneebaum

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Abstract

On average, boys score higher on math achievement tests and girls score higher in reading; these gaps increase between primary and secondary school. Using PISA, PIRLS, and TIMSS data, we investigate the role of early educational tracking (sorting students into different types of secondary schools at an early age) on gender gaps in test achievement in a cross-country difference-in-differences framework. We find strong evidence that early tracking increases gender differences in reading. For math test scores, we do not find consistent evidence that early tracking contributes to the gender gap.

Open Access May 12, 2023

Energy Use Patterns in German Manufacturing from 2003 to 2017

Kathrine von Graevenitz, Elisa Rottner

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Abstract

The manufacturing sector accounts for a substantial share of the German gross domestic product, employment and carbon emissions. Therefore, reducing its energy use and carbon emissions is of crucial importance to Germany’s energy Transition. In this paper, we analyse energy use patterns in German manufacturing between 2003 and 2017, using rich administrative micro-data. We find that although the manufacturing sector has been faced with rising energy costs as a share of total costs, energy use has not declined except briefly during the economic crisis. We also find that energy intensity, and to a larger degree, carbon intensity follow a decreasing trend between 2003 and 2017. The stronger response of the latter variable can be attributed to changes in the fuel mix.

Open Access May 11, 2023

AKM Effects for German Labour Market Data from 1985 to 2021

Benjamin Lochner, Stefanie Wolter, Stefan Seth

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Abstract

This article describes the processing and accessibility of the person and establishment fixed wage effects in German administrative data. These effects have been estimated following the approach of Abowd, J., Kramarz, F., and Margolis, D. (1999. High wage workers and high wage firms. Econometrica 67: 251–333) and Card, D., Heining, J., and Kline, P. (2013. Workplace heterogeneity and the rise of West German wage inequality. Q. J. Econ. 128: 967–1015). They can be linked to most of the available administrative datasets provided by the Research Data Center (FDZ) of the German Federal Employment Agency at the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). They are available for different time intervals from 1985 until 2021. These effects have been used in numerous articles that deal with the contributions of workers and establishments to earnings inequality.

Open Access April 21, 2023

Is a Secondary Currency Essential? – On the Welfare Effects of a New Currency

Max Fuchs, Jochen Michaelis

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Abstract

The coexistence of fiat money (cash) and digital monies constitutes a system of parallel currencies as media of exchange. This paper asks whether a new (digital) currency is essential: Does a new currency allow for a better resource allocation even if a fully accepted currency is in circulation and remains in circulation? Using the dual currency search model of Kiyotaki and Wright (1993. A search-theoretic approach to monetary economics. Am. Econ. Rev. 83: 63–77), we show how the introduction of a secondary currency affects average utility. There is some scope for a welfare improvement as the welfare effect depends on differences in returns and costs, and, in particular, on the proportion of cash traders who will be replaced by digital money traders.

Open Access March 27, 2023

The IWH Forecasting Dashboard: From Forecasts to Evaluation and Comparison

Katja Heinisch, Christoph Behrens, Jörg Döpke, Alexander Foltas, Ulrich Fritsche, Tim Köhler, Karsten Müller, Johannes Puckelwald, Hannes Reichmayr

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Abstract

The paper describes the “Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) Forecasting Dashboard (ForDas)”. This tool aims at providing, on a non-commercial basis, historical and actual macroeconomic forecast data for the Germany economy to researchers and interested audiences. The database renders it possible to directly compare forecast quality across selected institutions and over time. It is partly based on data collected in the DFG-funded project “Macroeconomic forecasts in great crisis”.

Open Access March 16, 2023

A Welfare Economic Approach to Planetary Boundaries

Michael Sureth, Matthias Kalkuhl, Ottmar Edenhofer, Johan Rockström

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Abstract

The crises of both the climate and the biosphere are manifestations of the imbalance between human extractive, and polluting activities and the Earth’s regenerative capacity. Planetary boundaries define limits for biophysical systems and processes that regulate the stability and life support capacity of the Earth system, and thereby also define a safe operating space for humanity on Earth. Budgets associated to planetary boundaries can be understood as global commons: common pool resources that can be utilized within finite limits. Despite the analytical interpretation of planetary boundaries as global commons, the planetary boundaries framework is missing a thorough integration into economic theory. We aim to bridge the gap between welfare economic theory and planetary boundaries as derived in the natural sciences by presenting a unified theory of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis. Our pragmatic approach aims to overcome shortcomings of the practical applications of CEA and CBA to environmental problems of a planetary scale. To do so, we develop a model framework and explore decision paradigms that give guidance to setting limits on human activities. This conceptual framework is then applied to planetary boundaries. We conclude by using the realized insights to derive a research agenda that builds on the understanding of planetary boundaries as global commons.

Open Access March 14, 2023

The High Frequency Firm Survey “Bundesbank Online Panel – Firms”

Dominik Boddin, Mona Köhler

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Abstract

The Bundesbank Online Panel – Firms (“BOP-F”) is a dataset with responses from a high frequency firm-level survey of the same name. The Bundesbank has conducted the survey since June 2020, and since July 2021 the survey has been carried out at a monthly frequency. Every month, around 3000 firms from all economic sectors, regions and size classes are surveyed. The survey consists of recurring core questions about the economic situation of firms and their expectations and special questions that usually differ from quarter to quarter. The latter often relate to current topics, for instance, climate change, digitalization, Covid-19. The data can be accessed for research and especially the possibility to combine it with other administrative Bundesbank data makes it particularly valuable for research. The objective of this paper is to describe the methodology of the data collection, the content data as well as the data’s research potential.

February 10, 2023

The Role of Sex Segregation in the Gender Wage Gap Among University Graduates in Germany

Juliane Ransmayr, Doris Weichselbaumer

Abstract

In this paper we examine the gender wage gap among university graduates in Germany from 1997 to 2013 based on the DZHW (the German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies) Absolventenpanel. We focus in particular on the effect of female presence in a subject or occupation on wage inequality. Earlier research has shown not only that female-dominated university subjects or occupations pay less, but also that men face a higher wage penalty than women when they graduated in a female-dominated subject and experience a lower penalty for working in a female-dominated occupation. For the five waves considered, we confirm the very strong negative association between female presence in a subject or occupation and wages. However, no consistent pattern emerges with regard to whether men’s or women’s wages suffer larger penalties. There is also no time trend observable with regard to the wage penalty that is associated with female-dominated fields. We further show that significant gender wage gaps exist within fields of studies, especially in male-dominated fields like engineering and natural science.

Publicly Available February 10, 2023

IABSE-ADIAB – IAB Job Vacancy Survey Data Linked to Administrative Data

Benjamin Lochner

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Abstract

The IABSE-ADIAB dataset provides the linkage between the most recent case of a hire from the IAB Job Vacancy Survey and the administrative data of the hired person. The data comprise the entire working history of persons who were identified as IAB Job Vacancy Survey hires from 2010 to 2020. The data are processed in a similar manner to the Sample of Integrated Employment Biographies of the IAB and can be linked to the survey data using the provided unique key variable.

December 20, 2022

Localising the Upper Tail: How Top Income Corrections Affect Measures of Regional Inequality

Jana Emmenegger, Ralf Münnich

Abstract

Poor coverage of top incomes in surveys, also referred to as the “missing rich” problem, leads to severe underestimation of income inequality. At the regional level this shortcoming is even more eminent due to small regional sample sizes. Tax records contain more accurate income information at the top and cover all regions equally well. Top-income correction approaches tackle the missing rich problem by imputing top incomes from tax to survey data. While existing methods focus on adjustments at the national level, our paper provides corrections of the regional income distributions in survey data by exploiting the tax data’s regional variability. We impute top incomes in the survey data from the German Microcensus based on region-specific Pareto and generalized Pareto distributions estimated from tax records. The combined survey and tax data provide new estimates of regional income inequality in Germany. Our findings indicate that inequality between and within the regions is much larger than previously understood with the magnitude of the adjustment depending on the federal states’ level of inequality in the tail.

Publicly Available November 17, 2022

The Occupational Panel for Germany

Katharina Grienberger, Markus Janser, Florian Lehmer

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Abstract

The occupational panel for Germany provides a comprehensive database for studying the development of occupations over time. It is based on the IAB Employment History (BeH), which contains all social security notifications that employers have to submit for their employees subject to social security and minor employees. The current version of the panel covers the years 2012–2018. Information on employees is aggregated at the occupational level such as shares by age, qualification or gender. In addition, occupational information from the expert database BERUFENET of the Federal Employment Agency, e.g. the substitution potential or the Digital-Tools Index, is prepared and merged to the occupational panel.

Publicly Available November 8, 2022

Comprehensive Patent Data of the German Democratic Republic 1949–1990

Ann Hipp, Michael Fritsch, Maria Greve, Jutta Günther, Marcel Lange, Christian Liutik, Beate Pfeifer, Mariia Shkolnykova, Michael Wyrwich

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Abstract

We document the generation and the content of the Comprehensive Patent Database (CPDB) of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) (1949–1990), which is freely available at GESIS https://doi.org/10.7802/2448. The database contains all patents granted in the GDR and published by the Office of Inventions and Patents (later: German Patent and Trade Mark Office/DPMA). The core database covers the years 1950–1990 and contains 24 variables with manually cleaned and processed information on a total of 261,822 unique patents of the GDR.

Publicly Available October 7, 2022

The ifo Education Survey 2014–2021: A New Dataset on Public Preferences for Education Policy in Germany

Vera Freundl, Elisabeth Grewenig, Franziska Kugler, Philipp Lergetporer, Ruth Schüler, Katharina Wedel, Katharina Werner, Olivia Wirth, Ludger Woessmann

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Abstract

The ifo Education Survey is a representative opinion survey of the German voting-age population on education topics that has been conducted annually since 2014. It covers public preferences on a wide range of education policy issues ranging from early childhood education, schools, and apprenticeships to university education and life-long learning. The dataset comprises several survey experiments that facilitate investigating the causal effects of information provision, framing, and question design on answering behavior. This paper gives an overview of the survey content and methodology, describes the data, and explains how researchers can access the dataset of over 4000 participants per wave.

Open Access October 6, 2022

The ZEW Financial Market Survey Panel

Frank Brückbauer, Michael Schröder

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Abstract

The ZEW Financial Market Survey is a monthly panel survey among financial market experts that was launched in December 1991. The survey focuses on the experts’ expectations about international financial markets and macroeconomic developments. We describe the ZEW Financial Market Survey and the resulting research dataset, which is available for free for academic researchers, is large and includes long individual time series (99,001 responses by 2002 respondents, as of September 2021), and contains rich information on the financial market experts collected over the years and which can be combined with the data on expectations.

Publicly Available September 27, 2022

Data on the Population of Reduced Earnings Capacity-Pensioners in Germany, 2001–2020

Katharina Werhan

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Abstract

Pensions for reduced earnings capacity (REC) have yearly made up about 20% of all pensions granted by the German Pension Insurance in the past 25 years. The dataset described in this article is a time series of cross-sectional observations for the retirement cohorts 2001–2020. It enables researchers to have a detailed insight into the population of REC-pensioners and allows observing trends and effects of reforms over time. The article provides general information on the data, first descriptive analyses, examples on possible matching with other data of the FDZ-RV and information on how to access the data.

September 9, 2022

A Model United Nations Experiment on Climate Negotiations

Elisa Hofmann, Lucas Kyriacou, Klaus M. Schmidt

Abstract

Weitzman, M.L. (2014. Can negotiating a uniform carbon price help to internalize the global warming externality? J. Assoc. Environ. Resour. Econ. 1: 29–49) proposed that focusing international climate negotiations on a uniform common commitment (such as a uniform carbon price) is more effective than negotiations on individual commitments (as in the Paris agreement) in achieving ambitious climate action. We put this hypothesis to an experimental test by simulating international negotiations on climate change in collaboration with Model United Nations associations. This novel experimental format combines some of the advantages of lab and field experiments. Our results offer support for Weitzman’s hypothesis and indicate that negotiating a common commitment on a uniform carbon price may yield higher emission reductions in the long run and more participation than individual commitments à la Paris.

Open Access September 7, 2022

Corona Monitoring Nationwide (RKI-SOEP-2): Seroepidemiological Study on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Across Germany

Susanne Bartig, Herbert Brücker, Hans Butschalowsky, Christian Danne, Antje Gößwald, Laura Goßner, Markus M. Grabka, Sebastian Haller, Doris Hess, Isabell Hey, Jens Hoebel, Susanne Jordan, Ulrike Kubisch, Wenke Niehues, Christina Poethko-Mueller, Maximilian Priem, Nina Rother, Lars Schaade, Angelika Schaffrath Rosario, Martin Schlaud, Manuel Siegert, Silke Stahlberg, Hans W. Steinhauer, Kerstin Tanis, Sabrina Torregroza, Parvati Trübswetter, Jörg Wernitz, Lothar H. Wieler, Hendrik Wilking, Sabine Zinn

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Abstract

SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus, spread across Germany within just a short period of time. Seroepidemiological studies are able to estimate the proportion of the population with antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 infection (seroprevalence) as well as the level of undetected infections, which are not captured in official figures. In the seroepidemiological study Corona Monitoring Nationwide (RKI-SOEP-2), biospecimens and interview data were collected in a nationwide population-based subsample of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). By using laboratory-analyzed blood samples to detect antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, we were able to identify a history of vaccination or infection in study participants. By combining these results with survey data, we were able to identify groups within the population that are at increased risk of infection. By linking the RKI-SOEP-2 survey data with data from other waves of the SOEP survey, we will be able to examine the medium- to long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, including effects of long COVID, in diverse areas of life. Furthermore, the data provide insight into the population’s willingness to be vaccinated as well as related attitudes and conditions. In sum, the RKI-SOEP-2 survey data offer a better understanding of the scope of the epidemic in Germany and can help in identifying target groups for infection control in the present and future pandemics.

Publicly Available August 31, 2022

Micro Data on Robots from the IAB Establishment Panel

Verena Plümpe, Jens Stegmaier

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Abstract

Micro-data on robots have been very sparse in Germany so far. Consequently, a dedicated section has been introduced in the IAB Establishment Panel 2019 that includes questions on the number and type of robots used. This article describes the background and development of the survey questions, provides information on the quality of the data, possible checks and steps of data preparation. The resulting data is aggregated on industry level and compared with the frequently used robot data by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) which contains robot supplier information on aggregate robot stocks and deliveries.

Publicly Available August 19, 2022

The German Local Population Database (GPOP), 1871 to 2019

Felix Roesel

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Abstract

I present the first database of historical local population figures for all Germany. The German Local Population Database (GPOP) includes total population in 1871, 1910, 1939, 1946, 1961, 1987, 1996, 2011, and 2019 for the universe of all German municipalities, counties, and states at consistent contemporary boundaries (31 December 2019). The database was hand-collected and assembled from more than 50 sources. The data reflect 150 years of regional development and disparities in Germany. For example, East and West Germany are heavily diverging in population since 1945; and the divide was not reversed but even doubled after reunification.

Publicly Available July 4, 2022

Identifying Supervisory or Managerial Status in German Administrative Records

Matthias Collischon

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Abstract

Information on individuals holding managerial or supervisory positions within establishments is important for various aspects of labour market research. However, identifying managers or supervisors in German administrative records is not straightforward. This paper uses survey information from the Panel Study Labour Market and Social Security (PASS) to predict managerial or supervisory tasks in administrative records that can be used to enhance the identification of managers and supervisors in the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB). Furthermore, I provide an applied example in which I calculate gender differences in the probability to hold a managerial position.

Open Access June 16, 2022

Beyond the Business Climate: Supplementary Questions in the ifo Business Survey

Katrin Demmelhuber, Stefan Sauer, Klaus Wohlrabe

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Abstract

In the monthly ifo Business Survey, around 9000 companies answer questions about their current business situation, expectations, and plans for the near future as well as on other business variables. Beyond the regular questions, ifo has also the possibility to include supplementary questions into the survey. These questions may be prompted by the intention to obtain an ad hoc picture of the effects of certain developments in economic policy on the companies and their reactions to them (e.g. the Covid-19 pandemic or the war in Ukraine). Another reason is the collection of data for research projects. This article gives an overview of all supplementary questions since 2009 through May 2022. It intends to show examples of the use of the obtained data and can be used as a guide for future research projects. Researchers can work with the firm-level microdata of supplementary and regular survey questions at the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center.

About this journal

The Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) is a scientific journal published in Germany since 1863. The journal publishes papers in all fields of economics and applied statistics. A specific focus is on papers combining theory with empirical analyses. Papers providing conclusions for economic policy in Europe are particularly welcome. Nevertheless, distinguished papers dealing exlusively with economic theory, empirical models, or economic history, will not be excluded from consideration.

The editors invite replication studies focusing on the robustness of empirical findings. The section Data Observer presents articles on data sets available for empirical research and institutions providing research data. The journal also publishes special issues, short comments, and book reviews. All freely accessible contributions, including the Data Observer articles, can be found via the website's article search functionality.

Journal of Economics and Statistics now also at Twitter.

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Starting 2023, the Journal of Economics and Statistics will be transferred to Diamond Open Access on a year-by-year basis. All articles will thus immediately appear under the Creative Commons license CC-BY. There will be no publication costs for the authors.
The Open Access transformation is based on Subscribe-to-Open, an alternative model that enables the full Open Access transformation of journals through the continuation of existing subscriptions. The prerequisite for successful transformation is that subscriptions are continued to the same extent as before. The editors of the Journal of Economics and Statistics and the publisher De Gruyter would therefore like to thank all subscribers for their support, which has made the transformation to Open Access possible.

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Call for Papers

Special Issue on "Sports Economics"

Guest Editors: Bernd Frick, Paderborn University; Thomas Peeters, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Rob Simmons, Lancaster University

Timeline: Submission of full papers November 30, 2023

Further details

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Special Issue on "Advancing Agent-Based Economics"

Guest Editors: Michael Neugart, Technical University of Darmstadt) and Frank Westerhoff, University of Bamberg

Timeline: Submission of full papers December 31, 2023

Further details

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Special Issue on “Atypical Employment”

Guest editors: Regina T. Riphahn, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Conny Wunsch, Universität Basel

Timeline: Submission of full papers December 31, 2022

Further details

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Special Issue on “Empirical Studies with Micro-Data from Official Statistics in Germany”

Guest editors: Thomas K. Bauer, Ruhr-Universität Bochum
Regina T. Riphahn, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Joachim Wanger, Leuphana Universität Lüneburg

Timeline: Submission of full papers (extended deadline) November 30, 2022

Further details

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Special Issue on "Minimum Wages – Experiences of European Countries"

Guest editors: Matthias Dütsch und Clemens Ohlert, Coordination and Information Office for the Minimum Wage, Berlin; Christian Pfeifer, Leuphana Universität Lüneburg; Conny Wunsch, Universität Basel

Timeline: Submission of full papers May 1, 2023

Further details

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