Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Open Access Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg

Volume 218 Issue 3-4

June 1999

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Contents
Journal Overview

May 25, 2016

Inhalt / Contents

Page range: I-II

Abhandlungen / Original Papers

May 25, 2016

Wachstumsdeterminanten junger innovativer Unternehmen: Empirische Ergebnisse für West-Deutschland / Growth Determinants of Young Innovative Firms: Empirical Results for West-Germany

Matthias Almus, Eric Nerlinger

Page range: 257-275

Abstract

The contribution of New Technology-Based Firms (NTBFs) to long term economic development is at the centre of a controversial debate. The paper deals with the growth determinants of NTBFs and the question whether NTBFs grow faster than non-innovative young firms or not. Based on theoretical models explaining the growth of firms, hypotheses on potential growth factors are derived. The regression results indicate strong correlations between the growth rate on the one side and firm-specific, founder-specific as well as county-specific factors on the other side. It becomes obvious, that large and mature firms have c.p. smaller growth rates than small and young firms. Hereby, statistical tests lead to a rejection of Gibrat’s law, indicating a significant correlation between size and growth. Other firm-specific characteristics like legal form and formal links to other firms have an impact on the development of NTBFs as well. With respect to founder-specific characteristics, positive effects can be derived from the human capital of the founder(s). This holds especially for technological disciplines whereas business knowledge plays a minor role. In addition to firm and founder characteristics, location-specific factors controlling for agglomeration effects and the industry structure in the West-German counties have an impact on the growth of NTBFs.

May 25, 2016

Dynamik der realwirtschaftlichen Integration am Beispiel der EU-Osterweiterung / On the Dynamics of Economic Integration: The Case of the EU Eastern Enlargement

Lucas Bretschger

Page range: 276-293

Abstract

The paper surveys in a coherent framework the consequences of economic integration on longterm growth. It turns out that the dynamic effects of integration may exceed the effects of comparative- statics, once the positive spillovers of capital accumulation are taken into account. However, the introduction of multi-sector models and of environmental restrictions for economic development demonstrates that the long-term impact of integration cannot always be assumed to be positive. In contrast, negative dynamic impact of integration are predicted under certain conditions. First, integration may cause a resource reallocation from dynamic to static sectors of the economy which can harm the long-term growth rate. Second, integration may increase the welfare loss which is due to negative environmental externalities of the economy. To evaluate the probability of positive and dynamic losses from trade, the paper focuses on the incentives of capital accumulation under different model set-ups. As a result, it emerges that negative resource reallocation effects are the more likely, the less trading partners are supplied with skilled labour, the less intensive international knowledge diffusion is and the smaller substitution possibilities between the labour inputs and between natural resources and knowledge are. These cases are assumed to be relevant for the evaluation of the EU Eastern enlargement.

May 25, 2016

How Bubbles are Born and Burst in the Foreign Exchanges / Zum Entstehen und Platzen von Seifenblasen auf dem Devisenmarkt

Manfred Gartner

Page range: 294-308

Abstract

Diba and Grossman (1987) demonstrated that the conception of a rational bubble as defined by Blanchard and Watson (1982) is impossible. The present paper shows that this impossibility theorem also applies under various imperfections and irrationalities. These are: sticky goods prices, believing in a wrong model, heterogenous expectations and learning processes. It is suggested that for any bubble to get started out of a non-bubble equilibrium individuals would have to form expectations which contradict the forecasts produced by their own personal and possibly completely misconceived model. Such inconsistent expectations would be in blatant conflict with the notion of economic man. Zusammenfassung Diba und Grossman (1987) zeigten, daß die Entstehung einer rationalen Seifenblase im Sinne von Blanchard und Watson (1982) unmöglich ist. Die vorliegende Arbeit zeigt, daß dieses Unmöglichkeitstheorem auch unter diversen Marktunvollkommenheiten und Irrationalitäten gilt. Diese umfassen: träge Preise, den Glauben an das falsche Modell, heterogene Erwartungen und Lernprozesse. Als zentrales Resultat ergibt sich, daß eine Seifenblase nur dann aus einem Gleichgewicht entstehen kann, wenn Individuen Erwartungen bilden, die den Prognosen ihres eigenen, subjektiven, und möglicherweise völlig falschen Modells widersprechen. Eine derartige Erwartungsbildung würde dem Bild des Homo oeconomicus in eklatanter Weise widersprechen.

May 25, 2016

Erkennung eines sich anbahnenden Wendepunkts in der konjunkturellen Bewegung einer Zeitreihe / An Approach to Identify First Signs of a Development toward a Cyclical Turning Point

Georg Goldrian, Birgit Lehne

Page range: 309-324

Abstract

The usual estimation methods provide only a blurred picture of the cyclical development for the current values of a time series, the section that is of most interest for short-term economic analysis. As an alternative, an approach to identify first signs of a development toward a cyclical turning point is suggested. The method is based on the moving adaptation of a parabola to predetermined sections of time series and determines a change in the curve of the consecutive parabolas as a first signal of a turning point. The different features of economic time series call for a time series specific design of the method. Some measures, like the determination of the length of the parabola or the moderation of the irregular movement in advance, allow a certain turning. On principle, the lead and the reliability of the signals decrease with the share of the irregular movement on the variance of the time series and increase with the smoothness of its cyclical development.

May 25, 2016

Kartellstabilität bei heterogenen Gütern / Cartel Stability and Product Differentiation

Hans Hirth

Page range: 325-345

Abstract

The purpose here is to compute sizes of stable cartels when both degree of homogeneity and market size vary. Noncooperative behaviour is observable without delay, so market equilibrium is presented in form of a Nash-equilibrium where firms follow pure strategies. Starting from a particular cartel size, the question is whether there exist an incentive for anyone in or outside the cartel to leave or enter into the cartel in order to choose another Nash-equilibrium (with another cartel size) which makes him better. Existing findings that weak and strong homogeneity support cartel stability are confirmed. Here, the results are more extreme. With moderate substitutes no stable cartel is detected. Only with very strong heterogeneity or strong homogeneity stable cartels exist. In the latter case just all-embracing cartels meet stability conditions. Furthermore, in large markets these all-embracing stable cartels can only exist if the degree of homogeneity is sufficiently high.

May 25, 2016

Zur Rolle der Geldpolitik im Konjunkturzyklus / On the Role of Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle

Eine empirische Analyse im Hinblick auf die Europäische Währungsunion / An Empirical Analysis Before the Outset of the European Monetary Union

Michael Holstein

Page range: 346-360

Abstract

From the outset of the European Monetary Union, the member countries will loose sovereignty in monetary policy. This may have negative effects on the economy if monetary policy has to play some role in national stabilization policy as long as the business cycles in the member countries are not fully correlated. In this article, the correlation between the national business cycles in the European Union is analyzed, using british, french, german and italian data. The results show that the correlation, especially between the french and the italian business fluctuations, has become somewhat closer in the last ten years. In the german data, on the other hand, there seems to be no tendency to a closer connection with the other european business cycles. In the following the real effects of monetary policy are analyzed. The cross-correlations between short-run interest rates and national GDPs show that the short-run interest rate, which is strongly influenced by monetary policy, is an inverted leading indicator in all four countries.

May 25, 2016

Kriege aus Sicht des Kapitalmarktes: Deutschland im Zweiten Weltkrieg / Germany in World War II: The Perspective of Capital Markets

Bruno S. Frey, Marcel Kucher

Page range: 361-384

Abstract

Historical events are reflected in asset prices. In this paper we analyze the prices of German government bonds traded in Switzerland during WWII. The econometric analysis reveals that some events that are generally considered crucial are clearly reflected in government bond prices. This holds, in particular, for events that occured during the war. The most prominent examples are the official outbreak of the war in 1939 or the war entry of the United States in 1941. Both events significantly set down the German government bond prices. On the other hand the financial markets in Switzerland stress the importance of some events, to which historians usually do not pay much attention: Examples include the Olympic Games in 1936 or the Yalta Conference in 1945. Finally, some events to which historians usually attach great attention are not reflected in bond prices at all: The most prominent example is the German capitulation in 1945. The analysis of financial markets is certainly no substitute to the traditional inquiries undertaken by historians. But it is a challenging complementary method to evaluate particular sentiments existing at a given moment of time.

May 25, 2016

Kritik internationaler Empfehlungen zur Indexformel für Preisindizes in der amtlichen Statistik / A Critique of International Recommendations Concerning Price Index Formulas

Einige Bemerkungen zur ökonomischen Theorie der Indexzahlen und zu Kettenindizes / A Critique of International Recommendations Concerning Price Index Formulas

Peter von der Lippe

Page range: 385-414

Abstract

The System of National Accounts (SNA) as well as the Boskin Report inconclusively discarded the idea of pure price comparison in favour of index formulas for which a meaningful interpretation is difficult to be found. The shortcomings of the "economic theory" approach followed in the Boskin Report (in addition to ideas expressly intended to simply lower inflation rates) and the various disadvantages of chain indices in view of their unsatisfactory axiomatic and deflation properties are demonstrated in detail. Implausibilities of chaining and "explaining" (as recommended in SNA) lack of additivity in deflation will drive official statistics into unnecessary difficulties.

May 25, 2016

Kündigungsschutz aus institutionenökonomischer Perspektive / Employment Protection in an Institutional Perspective

Horst M. Schellhaaß, Ansgar Nolte

Page range: 415-432

Abstract

Using the analytical tools of New Institutional Economics it can be shown that efficient employment protection should be differentiated according to the amount and kind of the worker’s investment in human capital. Hence, employment protection serves different purposes in different cases. A worker with firm-specific qualifications has to be protected from opportunistic behaviour by the employer, whereas employment protection for generally qualified workers serves as a means of restraining competition through equally qualified outsiders. Due to informational disadvantages of labor jurisdiction, legal employment protection should be partially substituted by implicit contracts on employment protection.

May 25, 2016

Europäische Wettbewerbspolitik zwischen Prozeß- und Ergebnisorientierung: Zur Notwendigkeit institutioneller Reformen in der europäischen Wettbewerbspolitik / European Competition Policy between Process and Performance Orientation: The Necessity of Institutional Reforms

Andre Schmidt

Page range: 433-452

Abstract

The European competition policy can look back at a successful forty-year-old practice of application by the European Commission. However, the performance orientation in competition policy has become more and more important with increasing importance of so called positive integration. In a multitude of merger and state aid cases such a performance orientation can be shown. From the point of view of a market economy such a development is dangerous because the decision-making process becomes more and more political. Therefore, the authority applying competition law should be organised taking regard of aspects of institutional economics and public choice. Only a politically independent competition authority can guarantee the protection of competition. Therefore, in the European Union the decision-making process in the field of competition policy should be institutionalised with an independent European Antitrust Office and with an independent State Aid Commission.

May 25, 2016

Innovation, Wachstum und Beschäftigung / Innovations, Growth and Employment

Eine empirische Untersuchung auf der Basis des ifo Unternehmenspanels / An Empirical Analysis on the Base of the ifo Firm Panel

Werner Smolny, Thomas Schneeweis

Page range: 453-472

Abstract

The ifo firm panel includes a large set of data for West German manufacturing firms from 1980-92 which permits a detailled analysis of firm behaviour. In this paper, estimates of the impact and the determinants of innovation behaviour are presented. The empirical results reveal that innovative firms exhibit more output and employment growth than non-innovative firms. The quantitative impact is non-negligible. The results also reveal that innovative behaviour depends positively on firm size and the business cycle.

May 25, 2016

Statistical Inference for Measures of Income Mobility / Statistische Inferenz zur Messung der Einkommensmobilität

Mark Trede

Page range: 473-490

Abstract

This paper reviews various mobility measures and establishes their asymptotic sampling distribution. The focus is on both transition matrix mobility measures and mobility measures which are based on the reduction in inequality occurring when the accounting period is extended. Statistical techniques are used to show the asymptotic normality of these measures and their variances. The empirical illustration examines the development of earnings mobility for both sexes in Germany between 1983 and 1992 using the Socio-Economic Panel data. It turns out that male earnings mobility fell during the eighties whereas the development of female earnings mobility is less clear. Comparing the levels of mobility females are more mobile than males, at least when inequality reduction mobility measures are employed. Considering the rather large number of observations the confidence intervals are often surprisingly wide. Therefore, confidence regions for mobility measures ought to be reported in empirical work whenever possible. Zusammenfassung Dieser Aufsatz gibt einen Überblick über diverse Mobilitätsmaße. Der Schwerpunkt liegt zum einen auf Mobilitätsmaßen, die auf Transitionsmatrizen basieren, und zum anderen auf Maßen, die auf dem Rückgang der Ungleichheit beruhen, zu dem es kommt, wenn das Einkommen über einen längeren Zeitraum aggregiert wird. Ferner werden statistische Eigenschaften der Maße hergeleitet. Zur empirischen Illustration wird die Entwicklung der Arbeitseinkommensmobilität in Deutschland zwischen 1983 und 1992 getrennt nach Geschlechtern untersucht. Die Datenbasis ist das Sozio-ökonomische Panel. Es zeigt sich, daß die Mobilität der Männer im Beobachtungszeitraum gefallen ist, während die Mobilität der Frauen keinem eindeutigen Trend folgt. Vergleicht man die Höhe der Mobilität, so sind Frauen mobiler als Männer. Trotz der großen Zahl der Beobachtungen sind die Konfidenzintervalle oft sehr weit. Wenn möglich, ist es daher empfehlenswert, die Standardfehler der Maße immer zu berechnen.

May 25, 2016

Umlagefinanzierung als Humankapitaldeckung: Grundrisse eines erneuerten „Generationenvertrages“ / Pay-as-you-go Public Pension Schemes Revisited: A Draft

Martin Werding

Page range: 491-511

Abstract

If considered within the context of an overlapping-generations framework, pay-as-you-go pension systems turn out to be funded by the human capital embodied in subsequent generations. The failure to actually model public old-age security on this idea may, to a large degree, explain the current crises of virtually all existing pay-as-you-go schemes. The paper sketches in some detail the basic features of a new pay-as-you-go mechanism which has been revised along these lines. Essentially, schemes of this type would be based on an explicit link between public retirement pensions and both private and public spending on human capital. The most important advantages of this solution are as follows: it neutralizes the demographic risks of providing for the elderly; it creates the right incentives to engage in old-age provision and human capital formation; and, last but not least, it conforms with rather complex notions of equity and social justice.

May 25, 2016

Hinweise für Autoren / Hints for Authors

Page range: 512-512

About this journal

The Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) is a scientific journal published in Germany since 1863. The journal publishes papers in all fields of economics and applied statistics. A specific focus is on papers combining theory with empirical analyses. Papers providing conclusions for economic policy in Europe are particularly welcome. Nevertheless, distinguished papers dealing exlusively with economic theory, empirical models, or economic history, will not be excluded from consideration.

The editors invite replication studies focusing on the robustness of empirical findings. The section Data Observer presents articles on data sets available for empirical research and institutions providing research data. The journal also publishes special issues, short comments, and book reviews. All freely accessible contributions, including the Data Observer articles, can be found via the website's article search functionality.

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