Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg

Volume 219 Issue 5-6

October 1999

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Contents
Journal Overview

Publicly Available May 25, 2016

Titelei

Page range: I-II

Download PDF

May 25, 2016

Prognosequalitätsmatrix / Forecast Quality Matrix

Ein methodologischer Beitrag zur Beurteilung der Güte von Kapitalmarktprognosen / A Methodological Survey of Judging Forecast Quality of Capital Market Forecasts

Peter Andres, Markus Spiwoks

Page range: 513-542

Abstract

Capital market forecasts sometimes suffer from a too intense orientation towards the current market situation and lose their future-orientated character. This phenomenon can be referred to as Topical Orientated Trend Adjustment (GOVA). For an individual statistic proof we develop a new instrument called GOVA coefficient. In a second step we combine the GOVA coefficient with the conventional forecast quality measure of Theil’s inequality coefficient. The result is the Forecast Quality Matrix. With this instrument, it is possible to verify whether the examined forecast is better or worse than the naive forecast and to exclude a Topical Orientated Trend Adjustment. This results in four different possibilities: 1. The forecast considering the future is an ideal case. This forecast is significantly better than a naive forecast and is not influenced by the market situation during the making of the forecast. 2. The quasi-naive forecast is characterized by a Topical Orientated Trend Adjustment, but is not better than the naive forecast. 3. The wrong forecast does not reflect the past, but unfortunately not even the future. 4. The direction-orientated forecast follows the past, but mostly indicates the correct market trend. This classification facilitates the evaluation of the practicability of forecasts and points out the reasons for a possibly lacking forecast accuracy.

May 25, 2016

Doppelte „Dividende” oder nur doppelte „Funktion” von Arbeitsmarktreformen bei diskretionärer Geldpolitik? / Double “Dividend” or Double “Function” of Labour Market Reforms under Discretionary Monetary Policy?

Anmerkungen zum Calmfors-Modell / A Note on the Calmfors-Model

Ansgar Belke, Martina Kamp

Page range: 543-555

Abstract

A high natural rate of unemployment has been identified by the time inconsistency literature as the root cause of an inflation bias. Thus, a reduction of equilibrium unemployment and of the inflation bias requires fundamental reforms of labour market institutions. However, there has been little research on how participation in different monetary regimes affects incentives in favour of them. Here an extended Barro-Gordon model is used where monetary policy and the reforms are determined simultaneously. Impacts of different monetary regimes on labour markets crucially depend on the degree of the inflation bias and on the extent of its internalisation by national governments. However, some opponents to a monetary rule hold the prior that a monetary rule serves as a substitute for labour-market reform. Therefore, it does not lower unemployment significantly and leads to lower welfare than discretionary policy. This view is clearly rejected by our model. It is shown that a monetary rule generally leads to a higher total economy welfare than discretionary policy. Under the latter, an overshooting of reforms can be observed because reforms are needed more pressingly and a monetary rule is a superior (and ideally a perfect) instrument to internalise the inflation bias.

May 25, 2016

Can Noise Traders Cause Persistent Deviations from Fundamental Values on the Stock Market? / Können Noise Trader langfristige Abweichungen der Aktienkurse von ihren Fundamentalwerten bewirken?

Mathias Binswanger

Page range: 556-574

Abstract

Models which are built on the assumption of rational expectations can easily outline the conditions under which bubbles may exist but they remain silent on the factors that cause the price to deviate from the fundamental value. In this paper it is argued that dynamic extensions of the noise trader model of De Long et al. (1990a) may provide a behavioral explanation of persistent deviations of stock prices from their fundamental value if changing fundamentals and especially fundamental shocks are included. As a consequence the pattern and the sustainability of bubbles also depend on noise traders’ reaction to fundamental shocks. In the multi period extension of the noise trader model developed in the paper noise traders’ behavior is captured by two components. First, there is a fundamentally unwarranted optimism about the future development of dividends independent of the recent development of fundamentals. Second, noise traders overreact to an average of recent dividend shocks, which results in waves of optimism or pessimism that create high price volatility. The model shows that sustainable bubbles are slowly growing, while large overreactions to fundamental shocks will result in fast growing but frequently bursting bubbles. Zusammenfassung Modelle, in denen den Akteuren rationale Erwartungen unterstellt werden, können zwar angeben, unter welchen Bedingungen rationale Blasen existieren, aber sie können deren Entstehung nicht erklären. In diesem Aufsatz wird aufgezeigt, dass eine dynamische Erweiterung des Noise-Trader-Modells von De Long et al. (1990a), in dem fundamentale Schocks auftreten, eine mögliche Erklärung für die Entstehung und Entwicklung von längerfristigen Abweichungen der Aktienkurse von ihren Fundamentalwerten liefert. Gemäss dem Modell sind Blasen nur dann beständig, wenn die “Noise Trader” keine zu starken Überreaktionen auf fundamentale Schocks zeigen und von den Schocks unabhängige positive Erwartungen besitzen.

May 25, 2016

Zur Problematik der Fixierung auf einzelne statistische Größen in der Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik - Dargestellt an der staatlichen Defizitquote / Problems Caused by the Increasing Reliance of Public Economic Policy on a Few Statistical Indicators - Demonstrated at the Public Deficit Ratio

Dieter Brümmerhoff, Utz-Peter Reich

Page range: 575-590

Abstract

The article deals with increasing reliance of public economic policy on a few indicators, demonstrated at the public deficit ratio in national accounts. Background is the problem of adequacy between theory and measurement. Some controversial accounting rules concerning the timing and sectoring of government transactions are analysed. Finally the use and misuse of the accounting system is discussed.

May 25, 2016

Stylized Facts of Eurolands Business Cycle / Stilisierte Fakten des Konjunkturzyklus in Euroland

Jörg Döpke

Page range: 591-610

Abstract

The paper presents stylized facts of Euroland’s business cycle using aggregated data. The main results are: The determination of turning points in Euroland’s business cycle is not very sensitive to the detrending method used, although the level of the recent output gap depends on it. Investment, net exports and stock building explain the largest share of the swings in real GDP. The types of expenditures - except for net exports - are pro-cyclical with almost no lag or lead. The results for monetary variables are mixed. Prices are counter-cyclical, whereas labour productivity and real wages are pro-cyclical. The cyclical component of industrial production in all member countries shows a positive and over time increasing correlation coefficient with the one in the rest of Euroland. Zusammenfassung Die Untersuchung präsentiert stilisierte Fakten des Konjunkturzyklus in Euroland, die unter Verwendung aggregierter Daten für das Gebiet der Währungsunion ermittelt wurden. Die Festlegung konjunktureller Wendepunkte erfolgt mit Hilfe verschiedener Verfahren zur Trendbereinigung. Die Investitionen, die Exporte und die Vorratsinvestitionen zeigen die stärksten zyklischen Schwankungen, zeigen aber weder Vor- noch Nachläufe in bezug auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion. Die Ergebnisse in bezug auf monetäre Variable sind nicht eindeutig. Das Preisniveau ist antizyklisch, Arbeitsproduktivität und Reallöhne hingegen prozyklisch. Die Trendabweichungen der Industrieproduktion der einzelnen Teilnehmerländer zeigen eine zunehmende Korrelation mit der entsprechenden Größe für den jeweiligen Rest von Euroland.

May 25, 2016

Umweltfreundliche Innovation durch Preissignale oder Regulation? / Environment-friendly Innovation by Price Signals or Regulation?

Eine empirische Untersuchung für Deutschland / An Empirical Investigation for Germany

Hariolf Grupp

Page range: 611-631

Abstract

This paper presents a scoping investigation of environment-friendly innovation, price and policy signals in Germany. The variables for sustainable innovation (special patent indicators) and for rational expectations (real crude oil import costs and expenditures for environmental protection) are cointegrated and need respective econometric treatment. The aim is to shed some light on the issue whether price signals spur innovation processes in the long run and how, in the short run, the interactions in innovation per environmental sector (waste treatment, water protection, noise reduction and clean air) function. The results show that the market mechanisms are distinct: In the long run, the pace of technical progress for energy and resource saving follows the lead price signal, whereby the couplings occur immediately. Yet, within the single environmental sectors, a variety of short-term interaction patterns is observed. Not always is it technical progress that spurs cost reactions, but there is an influence of government regulation and procurement, too. Most distinct observations offers the study of the interactions in the clean air policies of the past 15 years which did change a lot. Most of the rational expectations on measures and their impact came true.

May 25, 2016

Classification of West German Business Cycles 1955-1994 / Klassifikation westdeutscher Konjunkturzyklen 1955 - 1994

Ullrich Heilemann, Heinz Josef Münch

Page range: 632-656

Abstract

This paper applies multivariate linear discriminant analysis to classify West German business cycles from 1955 to 1994 into a four phase scheme (upswing, downswing, and upper/lower turning point phases). It describes the scheme as well as the selection of the classifying variables, and presents classification results for various sample periods confirming the four phase scheme. Special attention is given to changes of the explanatory power of the variables and its implication for changes of cycle patterns. While for the 1963/94 period the results display all in all much stability, the 1955/62 period does not fit into this pattern, indicating a change of regime which might even reach into the fourth cycle (1963-1967). Zusammenfassung Die Arbeit ordnet mit Hilfe der multivariaten linearen Diskriminanzanalyse die westdeutsche Konjunkturentwicklung von 1955 bis 1994 in ein Vierphasenschema (Aufschwung, Abschwung, untere/obere Wendepunktphase). Sie beschreibt das Schema sowie die Auswahl der verwendeten Klassifikationsvariablen und präsentiert die Klassifikationsresultate für verschiedene Stichprobenzeiträume. Das Vierphasenschema wird dabei im wesentlichen bestätigt. Besondere Bedeutung wird dem Wandel der Erklärungskraft der einzelnen Variablen und ihrer Bedeutung für den Wechsel der Zyklenmuster beigemessen. Während für den Zeitraum 1963/94 die Ergebnisse insgesamt als vergleichsweise stabil anzusehen sind, paßt der Zeitraum 1955/62 nicht in dieses Muster, was auf einen Wechsel vor allem im vierten Zyklus (1963 bis 1967) hindeutet.

May 25, 2016

Kontrolle von Chaos am Beispiel des Kaldor-Modells / Controlling Chaos in the Kaldor Modell

Stephan Heilig, Rainer Schöbel

Page range: 657-672

Abstract

Using Kaldor’s business cycle model we show how a chaotic system with limited resources can be controlled in the general case where the equilibrium which we want to stabilize is not a saddle point. This problem has considerable economic relevance because it cannot be assumed that equilibria can always be characterized by a saddle point. We choose the volume of public investment as the control variable. It turns out that particular properties of chaotic systems can be applied advantageously to control the economy. These systems therefore inhibit more flexibility than traditional non chaotic models.

May 25, 2016

Erfordert die Europäische Währungsunion die Koordination der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik in den Mitgliedsländern? / Does the EMU necessitate the Co-ordination of Active Labour Market Policy in the Member Countries?

Axel Jochem

Page range: 673-684

Abstract

The Treaty of Amsterdam has enlarged the acquis communautaire of the European Union by a chapter concerning the common employment strategy. It focuses on the co-ordination of active measures. In this paper it is examined, whether active labour market policy may cause problems, which only occur in a monetary union and necessitate the co-operation of the member states on the European level. Indeed, the so-called stability pact impedes new debts and the lack of nominal exchange rates as an instrument of adjustment intensifies intra-Union tax competition. The resulting sub-optimal level of active labour market policy can be raised by financial co-operation. On the other hand, a centralised employment strategy is the consequence of political efforts to involve the European Central Bank (ECB). If the ECB resists the political pressure and concentrates on internal price stability, fiscal co-ordination will lead to an excessive use of active labour market policy and affect European competitiveness on the world markets. Eventually, social costs will be higher than in the non-co-operative equilibrium.

May 25, 2016

Carl Menger und die Wettbewerbstheorie / Carl Menger and the Theory of Competition

C. Mantzavinos

Page range: 685-691

Abstract

The prominent position of Carl Menger in the history of economics is mainly seen in his contribution in the subjective theory of value. In this article Menger's analysis of competition is examined and it is suggested that he understood competition as a dynamic process. All elements of the modern process-oriented analysis of competition along evolutionary lines are contained in his work: the emphasis of the process and not of the end-state to which competition might lead, the variety of action parameters, the creation and diffusion of knowledge, the role of time and finally the growth aspects of the competitive procedure.

May 25, 2016

Familiäre Arbeitsteilung - Versagt der ökonomische Erklärungsansatz? / The Division of Labour between Family Members - Is the Economic Approach Obsolete?

Barbara Seel

Page range: 692-711

Abstract

It has been argued that the increasing labour market participation of married women with children can be understood as a process of gender despecialization which is not in accordance with the propositions of the production theoretic approach to household behaviour. The idea of this paper is to show that - by extending the production theoretic model beyond the limits of neoclassical thinking - it is possible to explain non-specialization within the framework of the economic approach to family behaviour so that it is not necessary to have recourse to "non-economic" reasoning. In order to do this a linear model of time use and consumption within families is developed. This model explains processes of specialization and despecialization within families in a context of restrictions in the labour market, consumption demands and characteristics of the consumption technology of the household. A multidimensional time concept is used. Implications of joint consumption are taken into account. The method consists in simulating alternative constellations of data starting from a linear optimization model which is based on the tradition of the Lancasterian theory of consumption. The results show that non-specialization is not in contrast to conclusions which can be drawn from production theoretic modelling.

May 25, 2016

Der Zensus - Ein Bericht zu Tradition und Moderne / A Report on some Traditions and Recent Developments of the Census

Rolf Wiegert

Page range: 712-728

Abstract

Just 13 years passed away since a complete census was hold in Germany. The struggling discussions in the German public about the last census in 1987 had a long lasting effect on politics that there was no desire to renew this debate. In 1997 EUROSTAT advised the members of the European Union to hold a census about the year 2001 under equal conditions. German politics and the official statistics were such forced to deal with the problems concerned. In the following text some traditional aspects of the census will be carried out and the stations of the recent developments on the way to a new kind of census in Germany about the year 2001 + x years are reported in detail.

Diskussionsbeiträge / Comments with Reply

May 25, 2016

Trends and Fashions - A Note on Changing Research Patterns 1969-1999

Kurt W. Rothschild

Page range: 729-738

May 25, 2016

Potentielle Konkurrenz: Eine kritische Auseinandersetzung mit dem Beitrag von Paech

Horst-Manfred Schellhaaß, Yvonne Kollmeier

Page range: 739-744

Buchbesprechungen / Book Reviews

May 25, 2016

Dimensionen Europas, Verlag Paul Haupt

Vera Schubert

Page range: 745-746

May 25, 2016

Die Unternehmung als ein soziales System. Ein sozialwissenschaftlicher Beitrag zur Neuen Mikroökonomie, Berlin

Dirk Bültel

Page range: 746-748

May 25, 2016

ORDO - Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, Band 49, Stuttgart

Manfred Hilzenbecher

Page range: 749-752

May 25, 2016

Hinweise für Autoren / Hints for Authors

Page range: 753-754

About this journal

The Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) is a scientific journal published in Germany since 1863. The journal publishes papers in all fields of economics and applied statistics. A specific focus is on papers combining theory with empirical analyses. Papers providing conclusions for economic policy in Europe are particularly welcome. Nevertheless, distinguished papers dealing exlusively with economic theory, empirical models, or economic history, will not be excluded from consideration.

The editors invite replication studies focusing on the robustness of empirical findings. The section Data Observer presents articles on data sets available for empirical research and institutions providing research data. The journal also publishes special issues, short comments, and book reviews. All freely accessible contributions, including the Data Observer articles, can be found via the website's article search functionality.

Journal of Economics and Statistics now also at Twitter.

******************************************************

Call for Papers

Special Issue on “Atypical Employment”

Guest editors: Regina T. Riphahn, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Conny Wunsch, Universität Basel

Timeline: Submission of full papers December 31, 2022

Further details

******************************************************

Call for Papers

Special Issue on “Empirical Studies with Micro-Data from Official Statistics in Germany”

Guest editors: Thomas K. Bauer, Ruhr-University Bochum
Regina T. Riphahn, University of Erlangen-Nürnberg
Joachim Wanger, Leuphana University Lüneburg

Timeline: Submission of full papers (extended deadline) November 30, 2022

Further details

For journal authors

For book authors

For librarians

Rights & Permissions

Open Access

Publication types

Subjects we publish

Contact

Career

About De Gruyter

Partnerships

Volume 219 Issue 5-6

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Titelei

Inhalt / Content

Prognosequalitätsmatrix / Forecast Quality Matrix

Ein methodologischer Beitrag zur Beurteilung der Güte von Kapitalmarktprognosen / A Methodological Survey of Judging Forecast Quality of Capital Market Forecasts

Abstract

Doppelte „Dividende” oder nur doppelte „Funktion” von Arbeitsmarktreformen bei diskretionärer Geldpolitik? / Double “Dividend” or Double “Function” of Labour Market Reforms under Discretionary Monetary Policy?

Anmerkungen zum Calmfors-Modell / A Note on the Calmfors-Model

Abstract

Can Noise Traders Cause Persistent Deviations from Fundamental Values on the Stock Market? / Können Noise Trader langfristige Abweichungen der Aktienkurse von ihren Fundamentalwerten bewirken?

Abstract

Zur Problematik der Fixierung auf einzelne statistische Größen in der Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik - Dargestellt an der staatlichen Defizitquote / Problems Caused by the Increasing Reliance of Public Economic Policy on a Few Statistical Indicators - Demonstrated at the Public Deficit Ratio

Abstract

Stylized Facts of Eurolands Business Cycle / Stilisierte Fakten des Konjunkturzyklus in Euroland

Abstract

Umweltfreundliche Innovation durch Preissignale oder Regulation? / Environment-friendly Innovation by Price Signals or Regulation?

Eine empirische Untersuchung für Deutschland / An Empirical Investigation for Germany

Abstract

Classification of West German Business Cycles 1955-1994 / Klassifikation westdeutscher Konjunkturzyklen 1955 - 1994

Abstract

Kontrolle von Chaos am Beispiel des Kaldor-Modells / Controlling Chaos in the Kaldor Modell

Abstract

Erfordert die Europäische Währungsunion die Koordination der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik in den Mitgliedsländern? / Does the EMU necessitate the Co-ordination of Active Labour Market Policy in the Member Countries?

Abstract

Carl Menger und die Wettbewerbstheorie / Carl Menger and the Theory of Competition

Abstract

Familiäre Arbeitsteilung - Versagt der ökonomische Erklärungsansatz? / The Division of Labour between Family Members - Is the Economic Approach Obsolete?

Abstract

Der Zensus - Ein Bericht zu Tradition und Moderne / A Report on some Traditions and Recent Developments of the Census

Abstract

Trends and Fashions - A Note on Changing Research Patterns 1969-1999

Potentielle Konkurrenz: Eine kritische Auseinandersetzung mit dem Beitrag von Paech

Dimensionen Europas, Verlag Paul Haupt

Die Unternehmung als ein soziales System. Ein sozialwissenschaftlicher Beitrag zur Neuen Mikroökonomie, Berlin

ORDO - Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, Band 49, Stuttgart

Hinweise für Autoren / Hints for Authors