Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Open Access Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg

Volume 224 Issue 3

June 2004

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Contents
Journal Overview

Abhandlungen / Original Papers

September 20, 2016

Inflationäre Schocks in Deutschland: Eine Common Trends Analyse / Inflationary Shocks in Germany: A Common Trends Analysis

Kai Carstensen, Gerd Hansen

Page range: 271-291

Abstract

This paper analyses the inflation rate in Germany by means of a common trends model. Starting from an IS-LM model of the open economy, we conduct a cointegration analysis from which we obtain plausible long-run relationships. In the next step, we identify structural shocks with permanent and transitory effects and study their impacts on the inflation rate. We find that permanent supply shocks increase long-run inflation while transitory supply shocks temporarily decrease the inflation rate. Negative inflation expectation shocks clearly have a disinflationary effect in the medium and long run

September 20, 2016

Selbständige in die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung? / Should Self-employed Persons Subject to the Statutory Pay-as-you-go Pension System?

Wohlfahrtseffekte einer Ausweitung der Versicherungspflicht / Welfare Effects of Extending Compulsory Insurance to Include Self-employed Persons

Heinrich Jess

Page range: 292-316

Abstract

The present paper is based on earlier studies by Kifmann (2001 ) and Buslei (2002) and constitutes an evaluation of the effects of subjecting self-employed people to the statutory pay-as-you-go pension system from 2005 onwards by using a computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. As opposed to earlier studies, for the first time this study takes into account future demographic developments and higher life expectancy as a function of socio-economic characteristics. Simulations are performed for a small open economy and a closed economy in consideration of adjusted investment cost. In further simulations, the old-age quotient is changed in the period from 2020 to 2030 to reduce the replacement rate to 60%. For the purpose of this study, we distinguish between 5 income groups and between employed and self-employed persons. This results in intra- and intergenerational welfare effects which show that subjecting self-employed to statutory pay-as-you-go pension system and delaying the reduction of the net pension level in the period from 2020 to 2030 would mean that the group of people who are compulsorily insured at present could be permanently better off.

September 20, 2016

Sources of German Unemployment: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model / Die Hintergründe deutscher Arbeitslosigkeit: Evidenz von einem Strukturellen VAR

Tobias Linzert

Page range: 317-336

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of different macroeconomic shocks on unemployment in Germany. In a first step, a cointegration analysis of productivity, prices, real wages, employment, and the unemployment rate reveals two long run relationships, interpreted as a labor demand and a wage setting scheme. Secondly, a structural VAR model is identified using the restrictions suggested by a small macroeconomic model. The impulse response analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition display that price, demand, and labor supply shocks affect unemployment significantly in the short/medium run. Interestingly, however, wage and technology shocks do not seem to play a dominant role. Zusammenfassung Diese Arbeit untersucht die Wirkung verschiedener makroökonomischer Schocks auf den Verlauf der deutschen Arbeitslosigkeit. In einem ersten Schritt werden Langfristbeziehungen zwischen Produktivität, Preisen, Reallöhnen, Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit in einem Fehlerkorrekturmodell geschätzt. Die resultierenden zwei Kointegrationsbeziehungen werden als Arbeitsnachfrage und Arbeitsangebot identifiziert. In einem zweiten Schritt wird mit Restriktionen aus einem kleinen theoretischen Modell ein Strukturelles VAR spezifiziert. Die Impuls-Antwort Analyse zeigt, dass Preis-, Nachfrage- und Arbeitsangebotsschocks einen kurz- bis mittelfristigen Effekt auf Arbeitslosigkeit haben. Interessanterweise erweist sich der Einfluss von Lohn- und Technologieschocks auf den Verlauf der Arbeitslosigkeit als gering.

September 20, 2016

Poverty Measurement Under Income Risk / Armutsmessung bei Einkommensrisiken

Hans-Peter Weikard

Page range: 337-350

Abstract

Poverty indices are usually calculated on the basis of (cross section) income data from the past. As past income is fixed and future income is uncertain such measurement does not reflect the ex ante risk of falling into poverty. This paper presents refinements of commonly used poverty measures to account for income risk. It is shown that the standard headcount ratio underestimates poverty in societies with moderate poverty if income is risky. The Foster, Greer and Thorbecke measure always underestimates poverty if income risk is neglected. Zusammenfassung Die Berechnung traditioneller Armutsmaße beruht zumeist auf ex post Einkommensdaten. Dabei wird implizit von einem sicheren Einkommen der Individuen ausgegangen. Aus einer ex ante Perspektive ist das Einkommen jedoch mit Risiko behaftet, und damit besteht ein Armutsrisiko auch für diejenigen, deren erwartetes Einkommen oberhalb der Armutsgrenze liegt. Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt modifizierte Armutsmaße vor, die Einkommensrisiken Rechnung tragen. Für Gesellschaften mit moderater Armut kann gezeigt werden, dass eine traditionelle Messung der Armutsquote das Ausmaß der Armut unterschätzt, wenn Einkommensrisiken unberücksichtigt bleiben. Ein Foster-Greer-Thorbecke-Maß weist bei Einkommensrisiken immer eine Unterschätzung der Armut auf.

Diskussionsbeiträge / Comments with Reply

September 20, 2016

Mehr Wettbewerb im bundesstaatlichen Finanzausgleich?

Eine allokative und distributive Wirkungsanalyse für das Jahr 2005 unter Berücksichtigung der Neuregelungen

Thomas Lenk

Page range: 351-378

September 20, 2016

Buchbesprechungen / Book Reviews

Dieter Spethmann, Helmut Marcon

Page range: 379-382

About this journal

The Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) is a scientific journal published in Germany since 1863. The journal publishes papers in all fields of economics and applied statistics. A specific focus is on papers combining theory with empirical analyses. Papers providing conclusions for economic policy in Europe are particularly welcome. Nevertheless, distinguished papers dealing exlusively with economic theory, empirical models, or economic history, will not be excluded from consideration.

The editors invite replication studies focusing on the robustness of empirical findings. The section Data Observer presents articles on data sets available for empirical research and institutions providing research data. The journal also publishes special issues, short comments, and book reviews. All freely accessible contributions, including the Data Observer articles, can be found via the website's article search functionality.

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Call for Papers

Special Issue on "Sports Economics"

Guest Editors: Bernd Frick, Paderborn University; Thomas Peeters, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Rob Simmons, Lancaster University

Timeline: Submission of full papers November 30, 2023

Further details

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Special Issue on "Advancing Agent-Based Economics"

Guest Editors: Michael Neugart, Technical University of Darmstadt) and Frank Westerhoff, University of Bamberg

Timeline: Submission of full papers December 31, 2023

Further details

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Special Issue on "Central Bank Digital Currency"

Guest Editors: Katrin Assenmacher, European Central Bank and Michael Frenkel, WHU

Timeline: Submission of full papers January 08, 2024

Further details

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