Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Open Access Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg

Volume 225 Issue 4

August 2005

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Contents
Journal Overview

September 20, 2016

Inhalt / Contents

Page range: 385-385

Abhandlungen / Original Papers

September 20, 2016

Weaknesses of the Baxter-King Filter: Is a Pattern-Based Filter an Alternative? / Schwächen des Baxter-King Filters: Ist ein musterbasierter Filter eine Alternative?

Georg Goldrian

Page range: 386-393

Abstract

The Baxter-King filter shows some weaknesses, particularly with regard to monthly time series. This procedure involves not only a loss of data for the border areas of time series, but suppresses inadequately high frequency components and shows as a low-pass filter only the performance of ordinary moving averages. Another important finding is that the maximal lag Κ not only determines the degree of approximation to an ideal filter, as Baxter and King argue, but also the ability to extract a slow moving component. A pattern-based filter, whose weights are generated by a trigonometric function as well, does not possess such weaknesses, and is thus a real alternative to the Baxter-King filter. Zusammenfassung Der Baxter-King Filter weist einige Schwächen auf, die insbesondere zur Geltung kommen, wenn er auf monatliche Zeitreihen angewendet wird. Er stellt nicht nur, wie jeder symmetrische Filter, für die Randbereiche einer Reihe keinen Output bereit, sondern dämpft nur ungenügend höher frequente Bewegungsanteile und zeigt bei der Extrahierung von tief frequenten Bewegungen lediglich die Leistung von gewöhnlichen Durchschnitten der gleichen Länge. Ein weiteres Untersuchungsergebnis ist, dass der maximale Lag des Baxter-King Filters nicht nur den Annäherungsgrad an einen idealen Filter bestimmt, wie Baxter und King behaupten, sondern auch die Fähigkeit zur Extraktion von tief frequenten Bewegungen. Ein musterbasierter Filter, dessen Gewichte gleichfalls auf trigonometrischen Funktionen beruhen, zeigt solche Schwächen nicht und ist insofern eine Alternative zu dem Baxter-King Filter, nicht nur, wenn es um Untersuchungen am aktuellen Rand geht.

September 20, 2016

Verzerrungen von Konsumentenpreisindices und ihr Einfluss auf das „reale“ Wirtschaftswachstum – dargestellt am Beispiel der USA / Biases in Consumer Price Indices and Their Impact on „Real“ Economic Growth – Illustrated by the Example of the United States

Jochen Hartwig, Bernd Schips

Page range: 394-412

Abstract

The paper reviews the sources of „Upward bias“ and „Downward bias“ in the US-Consumer Price Index (CPI) and discusses the changes the Bureau of Labor Statistics has introduced in order to eliminate them. The remaining biases are quantified. Also, the question is raised how much the changes to the CPI have lifted the growth rates of „real“ US-GDP upward. It is shown that the divergence in growth rates between the US and the European Union since 1997 can be explained almost entirely in terms of differing statistical methods.

September 20, 2016

Spurious Persistence and Unit Roots due to Seasonal Differencing: The Case of Inflation Rates / Künstliche Persistenz und Einheitswurzeln infolge saisonaler Differenzen: Das Beispiel Inflationsraten

Uwe Hassler, Matei Demetrescu

Page range: 413-426

Abstract

Studying annual growth rates (seasonal differences) in case of seasonal data produces much more persistence, autocorrelation and stronger evidence in favour of a unit root than analyzing seasonal growth rates (ordinary differences). First, this statement is quantified theoretically. Second, it is supported experimentally with simulations, and, finally, it is empirically illustrated with quarterly GDP deflators from 7 European economies. Zusammenfassung Wenn man bei saisonalen Daten jährliche Inflationsraten (saisonale Differenzen) untersucht, so fällt die Persistenz viel höher und die Evidenz zugunsten der Einheitswurzelhypothese viel stärker aus als bei saisonalen Inflationsraten (gewöhnliche Differenzen). Unterstellt man ein Zeitreihenmodell, so kann dieser Effekt theoretisch quantifiziert werden. Darüber hinaus wird er anhand von Computerexperimenten demonstriert. Eine Studie von 7 europäischen Inflationsraten zeigt schließlich, dass unsere theoretischen Ergebnisse auch empirisch Bestand haben.

September 20, 2016

Market Structure and Innovation Races / Marktstruktur und Innovationsrennen

An Empirical Assessment Using Indirect Inference / Eine empirische Untersuchung mit Hilfe der indirekten Schätzmethode

Martin Kukuk, Manfred Stadler

Page range: 427-440

Abstract

Based on an extended game-theoretic innovation-race model, we derive some Schumpeterian hypotheses of the impact of technological rivalry, market power, technological opportunities and demand expectations on the timing of product and process innovations. Using innovation data at the firm level in the German industrial sector, we estimate various versions of an econometric specification of the model with dichotomous innovation data by using a univariate binary probit model with qualitative regressor variables estimated applying indirect inference. Our empirical results are consistent with the derived hypotheses that intense rivalry, favorable technological opportunities and high demand expectations spur innovative activity, while the effect of market power is ambiguous. Zusammenfassung Auf der Grundlage eines erweiterten spieltheoretischen Innovationswettlauf-Modells leiten wir einige Neo-Schumpeter-Hypothesen über den Einfluss der Wettbewerbsintensität, der Marktmacht, der technologischen Möglichkeiten und der Nachfrageerwartungen auf die zeitliche Unternehmensplanung von Produkt- und Prozessinnovationen ab. Mittels Firmen-Innovationsdaten aus dem Verarbeitenden Gewerbe in Deutschland schätzen wir mehrere Varianten einer ökonometrischen Spezifikation des Modells. Aufgrund des dichotomen Charakters der Innovationsdaten schätzen wir ein univariates binäres Probit-Modell mit qualitativen Regressor-Variablen durch indirekte Inferenz. Die empirischen Ergebnisse bestätigen die theoretisch abgleiteten Hypothesen, dass eine hohe Wettbewerbsintensität, günstige technologische Möglichkeiten und hohe Nachfrageerwartungen die Innovationsaktivitäten fördern. Ein eindeutiger Effekt der Marktmacht lässt sich nicht nachweisen.

September 20, 2016

Diskontraten: Endogen oder nicht endogen? / Disounting: Endogenous or not Endogenous?

Eine umweltrelevante Fragestellung / Implications for the Environment

Karen Pittel

Page range: 441-458

Abstract

This paper explores implications that arise for growth and environmental policy when discount rates are endogenous. Standard growth models usually assume discount rates to be independent of any economic or environmental considerations. In our paper we argue that discount rates depend upon the state of the environment. We develop a simple linear economy with recursive preferences in which production generates pollution. It is shown that even in this simple economy endogenous discounting matters with respect to optimal growth and environmental quality. Yet whether growth and environment are affected positively or negatively by the endogeneity of discount rates crucially depends on the way in which environmental quality influences the discount rate. Even if exogenous and endogenous discount rates are identical, optimal environmental quality and growth differ along the equilibrium growth path. This shows that not only the level, but also the determination of discount rates matter with respect to optimal long-run development. With respect to the decentralized solution it is shown that endogenous discounting exerts no effect on growth and environmental quality. As households perceive environmental quality to be exogenous to their decisions, their optimization is unaffected by the endogeneity of discounting

September 20, 2016

Auswirkungen von Erbschaften und Schenkungen auf die Vermögensbildung privater Personen und Haushalte / The Importance of Intergenerational Transfers for Private Wealth Accumulation

Eine empirische Analyse auf der Basis des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels / An Empirical Analysis of German Survey Data

Peter Westerheide

Page range: 459-481

Abstract

We analyse the saving behaviour of German individuals and households between the ages of 30 and 50 with respect to inheritances and transfers inter vivos, based on recent data from the German Socio-economic Panel. In cross-section regression analysis current wealth holdings are explained by past life-cycle income and transfers received. The approach accounts for the problem of possible time lags in the adaptation of consumption to unexpected intergenerational transfers. Differences in the propensities to save with respect to highly liquid and less liquid wealth categories are taken into consideration as well. The results indicate a high propensity to save intergenerational transfers. The saving ratio does not decline substantially for transfers received 5 or even 10 years ago. Therefore delays in the reaction of private consumption to transfers obviously do not play a major role. Surprisingly the propensity to save intergenerational transfers is higher for households with lower initial wealth, proxied by their past life-cycle income. Our conclusion is that intergenerational transfers are likely to play a very important role in future private wealth accumulation because – in the long term strongly growing – intergenerational transfers tend to be saved to a high extent. Differences in saving propensities tend to equalise the distribution of wealth across households.

Diskussionsbeiträge / Comments with Reply

September 20, 2016

Zum Abriß des Wohnungsleerstands, oder: Schi Ida in ostdeutschen Städten? / On Demolition of Vacant Housing in East Germany: Why and For Whom?

Kristof Dascher

Page range: 482-498

Abstract

Contemporary observers are unanimous in their interpretation of vacant housing in East Germany. According to these observers, vacant housing is due to East German households’ emigration to better labor markets, as well as to East German households’ desire for higher quality housing. In this paper we argue that vacant housing is also due to a lack of competition on East German housing markets, with high rent and large vacant housing as the obvious results. Rather than pursuing a hugely expensive policy of demolition policy makers should: (i) stop demolition and (ii) privatize housing.

September 20, 2016

Das Ideal des „reinen Preisvergleichs“ / The Principle of "Pure Price Comparison“

Peter von der Lippe

Page range: 499-509

Abstract

Enthusiasm for the “Economic Theory of Index Numbers” seems to ebb due to its inherent operational problems of index compilation. The alternative concept of inflation measurement is known as “cost-of-good” or “(fixed) basket approach”. Though more convenient in practice it may have a less impressive theoretical underpinning. It is not uncommon even to call its rationale in question altogether. This paper attempts to justify the basket approach and to specify “pure comparison” in operational terms. In essence this requires a focus on a time series of indices (as opposed to comparing two adjacent periods in isolation), and the interpretation of the index formula in terms of expenditures.

September 20, 2016

Buchbesprechungen / Book Reviews

Karl Heinrich Oppenländer, Roland Eisen

Page range: 510-512

About this journal

The Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) is a scientific journal published in Germany since 1863. The journal publishes papers in all fields of economics and applied statistics. A specific focus is on papers combining theory with empirical analyses. Papers providing conclusions for economic policy in Europe are particularly welcome. Nevertheless, distinguished papers dealing exlusively with economic theory, empirical models, or economic history, will not be excluded from consideration.

The editors invite replication studies focusing on the robustness of empirical findings. The section Data Observer presents articles on data sets available for empirical research and institutions providing research data. The journal also publishes special issues, short comments, and book reviews. All freely accessible contributions, including the Data Observer articles, can be found via the website's article search functionality.

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Special Issue on "Sports Economics"

Guest Editors: Bernd Frick, Paderborn University; Thomas Peeters, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Rob Simmons, Lancaster University

Timeline: Submission of full papers November 30, 2023

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Special Issue on "Advancing Agent-Based Economics"

Guest Editors: Michael Neugart, Technical University of Darmstadt) and Frank Westerhoff, University of Bamberg

Timeline: Submission of full papers December 31, 2023

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Special Issue on "Central Bank Digital Currency"

Guest Editors: Katrin Assenmacher, European Central Bank and Michael Frenkel, WHU

Timeline: Submission of full papers January 08, 2024

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