Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg

Volume 226 Issue 3

June 2006

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Contents
Journal Overview

September 20, 2016

Inhalt / Contents

Page range: 233-233

Abhandlungen / Original Papers

September 20, 2016

On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence

Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin, Boriss Siliverstovs

Page range: 234-259

Abstract

In this paper we perform a comparative study of the forecasting properties of the about 30 alternative leading indicators for Germany using the growth rates of German real GDP. In addition to them, we have constructed a diffusion index based on the principal component analysis and including 145 component series that reflect all the facets of German economy. We use the post-unification data which cover years from 1991 through 2004. Using a battery of statistical tests we detect a structural break in the growth rates that occurs in the first half of 2001. Our results suggest that the forecasting ability of the leading indicators has been rather good in the pre-break period with our diffusion index showing the superior forecasting accuracy but the forecasting performance of all alternative indicators has significantly deteriorated in the post-break period, i.e. in 2001-2004. None of the leading indicator models was able to predict and accommodate the structural break in the growth rates of the time series under scrutiny. This finding confirms the widespread impression among the practitioners that the state of German economy in the recent years became much more difficult to forecast.

September 20, 2016

Abschreibungsraten allgemeiner und beruflicher Ausbildungsinhalte - empirische Evidenz auf Basis subjektiver Einschätzungen / Depreciation Rates of General and Vocational Training Capital - Evidence Based on Subjective Ratings

Volker Ludwig, Friedhelm Pfeiffer

Page range: 260-284

Abstract

The computer revolution together with educational expansion has led to dramatic changes in the structure of the workforce and in the organisation of workplaces in the last four decades. These developments should have different impacts on the use of vocational and general skills. This study compares depreciation rates of general and specific training capital among West German workers between 1979 and 1999. In this time the personal computer entered the workplaces and the share of workers with a university degree doubled. Econometric estimates based on respondent’s subjective ratings of the share of training skills applied to the current job indicate that depreciation rates of vocational skills increased significantly. In contrast, there is no evidence for positive depreciation rates among university graduates with general training capital at all. The role of measurement errors in respondent’s ratings for the estimated depreciation rates is analysed with sensitivity tests. The findings lend some support to the view that there is obsolescence of vocational skills in times of rapid technological change and educational expansion.

September 20, 2016

A Local Income and Corporation Tax as an Alternative to the German Local Business Tax

An Empirical Analysis for Selected Municipalities

Ralf Maiterth, Markus Zwick

Page range: 285-307

Abstract

The paper empirically analyses the impact on individual municipalities of replacing the German local business tax by a local surcharge on income and corporation tax. The microsimulation models used for this and refined for the present paper originate in calculations carried out for the Federal Ministry of Finance in cooperation between the Federal Statistical Office and the Humboldt University in Berlin. The data basis is formed by the roughly 30 million individual data sets of the most up-to-date income and local business tax statistics provided by the Federal Statistical Office. A local surcharge tax which, like the BDI/VCI model analysed, assigns tax revenue incurred on profits to the municipality of permanent establishment and that on other income to the domicile municipality, affects the revenue situation of the municipalities in highly differing ways. The losers in such a local tax reform include those municipalities in which an above-average number of industrial and commercial enterprises are resident. These are the “core towns” of the Old Federal Laender in particular. By contrast, the revenue situation of the surrounding municipalities and of the municipalities with a rural character would considerably improve on average. However, the core towns in the New Federal Laender which are currently tax-weak because they have little industry would also improve their revenue situation in most cases by applying a surcharge tax. In order to maintain the financial status quo, the core towns in the Old Federal Laender in particular would have to levy relatively high local tax rates, whilst the surrounding municipalities would be able to become more attractive by applying tax rates which as a rule would be much lower. The consequence of this would be that highincome earners in the core towns would have a not inconsiderable incentive to change their place of residence for tax purposes, which would further worsen the financial situation of the core towns.

September 20, 2016

Erweitertes Gender-BIP- Eine geschlechts-spezifische Analyse des traditionellen Bruttoinlandsproduktes und der Haushaltsproduktion in Deutschland / Extended Gender-GDP - A Gender-Specific Analysis of Traditional GDP and Household Production in Germany

Axel Schaffer, Carsten Stahmer

Page range: 308-328

Abstract

The traditional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflects the money value of the annual economic output produced by the domestic industries’ employees. Thus, the GDP fully accounts for paid work. In contrast, unpaid work remains unconsidered. However, measured in time units, unpaid work clearly exceeds paid work. Therefore, societies rely likewise on paid and unpaid work. The study at hand identifies women’s and men’s volume of paid and unpaid work in time units and money values. For this purpose, German time use data are combined with the traditional monetary input-output table (IOT) for the year 2000 and its inverse matrix. While the IOT provides information about the industries’ direct and indirect contributions to traditional GDP, time use data determine the gender-specific paid and unpaid workload. Thus, women’s and men’s share in an extended GDP, defined as the sum of traditional GDP and household production, can be given. Finally the genders’ level of qualification is taken into account. This, in turn, allows for a more precise identification of the gender-specific quality of work.

Diskussionsbeiträge / Comments with Reply

September 20, 2016

Mietpreissenkungen lösen das Leerstandsproblem nicht / Reductions of Rents do not Solve the East German Vacancy Problem

Eine Replik zu Kristof Dascher (2005), Zum Abriß des Deutschen Wohnungsleerstandes, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 225/4, S. 482-498 / A Reply to Kristof Dascher (2005), Zum Abriss des Deutschen Wohnungsleerstandes, Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik, 225/4, pp. 482-498

Wolfgang Maennig

Page range: 329-335

Abstract

Kristof Dascher’s (2005) hypothesis that the level of vacant accommodation in eastern Germany can be mitigated by lowering housing rents can be countered by an argument based on alternative, but market-oriented costs from the housing economy, which postulates that from the owners’ point of view the alternatives of demolition, vacancy or rental can be optimal depending on the situation. However, if the gross rent level is reduced by 20% the reservation rent level is reached where owners become indifferent between rental and vacancy. In view of the low elasticities in housing demand, such rent reductions are far from sufficient to eradicate vacancies.

September 20, 2016

Für und Wider eines Rückgangs ostdeutscher Mieten / A Brief Discussion of Letting East Germany’s Rents Fall

Eine Erwiderung auf Wolfgang Maennig (2006), Mietpreissenkungen lösen das Leerstandsproblem nicht, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, in diesem Heft / A Reply to Wolfgang Maennig (2006), Mietpreissenkungen loesen das Leerstandsproblem nicht, Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik, this issue

Kristof Dascher

Page range: 336-340

Abstract

This is a short note on two potential worries surrounding a scenario of falling rents in East Germany. These worries, put forward by Wolfgang Maennig, are: (1) that housing suppliers could withdraw as rents fall, while (2) housing demanders might hesitate to expand consumption as rents fall. - This note insists that falling rents’ overall benefits would outweigh their costs.

September 20, 2016

Buchbesprechung / Book Review

Oliver Falck

Page range: 341-344

About this journal

The Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) is a scientific journal published in Germany since 1863. The journal publishes papers in all fields of economics and applied statistics. A specific focus is on papers combining theory with empirical analyses. Papers providing conclusions for economic policy in Europe are particularly welcome. Nevertheless, distinguished papers dealing exlusively with economic theory, empirical models, or economic history, will not be excluded from consideration.

The editors invite replication studies focusing on the robustness of empirical findings. The section Data Observer presents articles on data sets available for empirical research and institutions providing research data. The journal also publishes special issues, short comments, and book reviews. All freely accessible contributions, including the Data Observer articles, can be found via the website's article search functionality.

Journal of Economics and Statistics now also at Twitter.

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Call for Papers

Special Issue on “Atypical Employment”

Guest editors: Regina T. Riphahn, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Conny Wunsch, Universität Basel

Timeline: Submission of full papers December 31, 2022

Further details

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Call for Papers

Special Issue on “Empirical Studies with Micro-Data from Official Statistics in Germany”

Guest editors: Thomas K. Bauer, Ruhr-University Bochum
Regina T. Riphahn, University of Erlangen-Nürnberg
Joachim Wanger, Leuphana University Lüneburg

Timeline: Submission of full papers (extended deadline) November 30, 2022

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Volume 226 Issue 3

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Inhalt / Contents

On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence

Abstract

Abschreibungsraten allgemeiner und beruflicher Ausbildungsinhalte - empirische Evidenz auf Basis subjektiver Einschätzungen / Depreciation Rates of General and Vocational Training Capital - Evidence Based on Subjective Ratings

Abstract

A Local Income and Corporation Tax as an Alternative to the German Local Business Tax

An Empirical Analysis for Selected Municipalities

Abstract

Erweitertes Gender-BIP- Eine geschlechts-spezifische Analyse des traditionellen Bruttoinlandsproduktes und der Haushaltsproduktion in Deutschland / Extended Gender-GDP - A Gender-Specific Analysis of Traditional GDP and Household Production in Germany

Abstract

Mietpreissenkungen lösen das Leerstandsproblem nicht / Reductions of Rents do not Solve the East German Vacancy Problem

Abstract

Für und Wider eines Rückgangs ostdeutscher Mieten / A Brief Discussion of Letting East Germany’s Rents Fall

Abstract

Buchbesprechung / Book Review