Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Open Access Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg

Volume 233 Issue 1

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Contents
Journal Overview

March 16, 2016

Abhandlungen / Original Papers

March 16, 2016

Multivariate Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Modeling by Genetic Algorithms

Roberto Baragona, Domenico Cucina

Page range: 3-21

Abstract

Several nonlinear time series models have been proposed in the literature to explain various empirical nonlinear features of many observed financial and economic time series. One model that has gained much attention is the so-called self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model. It has been found very effective for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series in a wide range of application fields. Furthermore, SETAR model is able to capture nonlinear characteristics as limit cycles, jump resonance, and time irreversibility. In this work the attention is focused on a multivariate SETAR (MSETAR) model where each linear regime follows a vector autoregressive (VAR) process and the thresholds are multivariate. We propose a methodology based on genetic algorithms (GAs) for building MSETAR models. The GA is designed to estimate the structural parameters, i. e. to determine the appropriate number of regimes and find multivariate threshold parameters. The behavior of the proposed methodology has been observed on a simulation experiment involving three artificial data sets.

March 16, 2016

On Interaction Effects: The Case of Heckit and Two-Part Models

Manuel Frondel, Colin Vance

Page range: 22-38

Abstract

Interaction effects capture the impact of one explanatory variable on the marginal effect of another explanatory variable. To explore interaction effects, so-called interaction terms are typically included in estimation specifications. While in linear models the effect of a marginal change in the interaction term is equal to the interaction effect, this equality generally does not hold in non-linear specifications (Ai/Norton 2003). This paper provides for a general derivation of interaction effects in both linear and non-linear models and calculates the formulae of the interaction effects resulting from Heckman’s sample selection model as well as the Two- Part Model, two regression models commonly applied to data with a large fraction of either missing or zero values in the dependent variable. Drawing on a survey of automobile use from Germany, we argue that while it is important to test for the significance of interaction effects, their size conveys limited substantive content. More meaningful, and also more easy to grasp, are the conditional marginal effects pertaining to two variables that are assumed to interact.

March 16, 2016

Schumpeter, Marshall, and Neo-Schumpeterian Evolutionary Economics

A Critical Stocktaking

Fritz Rahmeyer

Page range: 39-64

Abstract

The focus of evolutionary economics is a process of continuous and irreversible economic and organizational change over time. Currently there is no agreement on the explanation of economic evolution. From the perspective of the history of economic thought, at first the theoretical approaches of Schumpeter and Marshall with regard to economic development or evolution are dealt with in detail. For both authors technical and economic innovations are the engine of economic change. According to Schumpeter, they are created through newly established firms as the agents of change. For Marshall, innovations and economic development are a side effect of the manufacturing process and the division of labour. Technical and economic changes go off both gradually (Marshall) or discontinuously (Schumpeter). After that, a concept of neo-Schumpeterian evolutionary economics is elaborated. Evolution is understood as a process of change that leads to the adaptation of complex systems, the result of the causal interaction between variation, selection and retention of variety leading to continuity over time. It has gained wide application to the theory of innovation and later to resource-based theories of the firm. Modern evolutionary economics includes the determinants of new knowledge and innovations into its analysis. Business enterprises not only follow their routine behaviour, in a dynamic view they also show capabilities to restructure their given resources and to build new ones. To sum up, technical and economic evolution are both the result of the unintentionalmarket selection through competitive forces of the environment, and of the intentional, voluntary entrepreneurial choices, based on the firm’s resources and dynamic capabilities.

March 16, 2016

Ökonometrie vs. Projektdesign: Lehren aus der Evaluation eines Modellprojekts zur Umsetzung des Workfare-Konzepts

Hilmar Schneider, Arne Uhlendorff, Klaus F. Zimmermann

Page range: 65-85

Abstract

A common problem of welfare states consists of a high unemployment risk for low-skilled workers. This is often attributed to a lack of jobs for the low-skilled, but it may as well be caused by a lack of incentives to work. Low-skilled workers are easily substitutable and therefore have little bargaining power. Hence, they are typically dependent on low-paid jobs. This may create disincentives towork, if the achievable marketwage does not sufficiently exceed the welfare level. Workfare could be an efficient strategy to overcome such disincentives by introducing a work requirement for unemployed welfare recipients. In our paper we investigate the importance of such a supply side policy. We evaluate a pilot workfare project of a Berlin city community to integrate young people in social assistance into the labor market. Reference data are generated in collaboration with the German Employment Office. The participation effect is found to be positive and of relevant size, but not statistically significant. This indicates that selection biases detected in the allocation process of individuals to the program can be adjusted by econometric techniques, but only at the prize of reduced significance levels. Given the small sample sizes of pilot projects this calls for social experiments in controlled project designs.

Literaturüberblick / Literature Overview

March 16, 2016

Labor Market Effects of Trade and FDI – Recent Advances and Research Gaps

Michael Pflüger, Uwe Blien, Joachim Möller, Michael Moritz

Page range: 86-116

Abstract

The last decade has been shaped by dramatic developments in international trade, international investment and production, both in terms of the scale of events and in terms of their qualitative nature. Intriguing questions have been thrown up concerning the labor market impact of these developments, notably welfare issues (the evolution of real wages, employment and unemployment), the distribution of income (the wage structure) and employment volatility. Path-breaking innovations in the theories of trade, location and the multinational firm allow a fresh look at these labor market effects. This paper takes stock of these theoretical innovations and contrasts these with the recent empirical research efforts to uncover the labor market implications of trade and FDI. We identify research gaps and highlight promising avenues for future research.

March 16, 2016

Buchbesprechungen / Book Reviews

Enrico Schöbel, Sebastian von Engelhardt, Engelbert Stockhammer, Hannelore Weck-Hannemann, Andreas Buehn

Page range: 117-127

About this journal

The Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) is a scientific journal published in Germany since 1863. The journal publishes papers in all fields of economics and applied statistics. A specific focus is on papers combining theory with empirical analyses. Papers providing conclusions for economic policy in Europe are particularly welcome. Nevertheless, distinguished papers dealing exlusively with economic theory, empirical models, or economic history, will not be excluded from consideration.

The editors invite replication studies focusing on the robustness of empirical findings. The section Data Observer presents articles on data sets available for empirical research and institutions providing research data. The journal also publishes special issues, short comments, and book reviews. All freely accessible contributions, including the Data Observer articles, can be found via the website's article search functionality.

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Starting 2023, the Journal of Economics and Statistics will be transferred to Diamond Open Access on a year-by-year basis. All articles will thus immediately appear under the Creative Commons license CC-BY. There will be no publication costs for the authors.
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Call for Papers

Special Issue on "Sports Economics"

Guest Editors: Bernd Frick, Paderborn University; Thomas Peeters, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Rob Simmons, Lancaster University

Timeline: Submission of full papers November 30, 2023

Further details

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Special Issue on "Advancing Agent-Based Economics"

Guest Editors: Michael Neugart, Technical University of Darmstadt) and Frank Westerhoff, University of Bamberg

Timeline: Submission of full papers December 31, 2023

Further details

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Special Issue on "Central Bank Digital Currency"

Guest Editors: Katrin Assenmacher, European Central Bank and Michael Frenkel, WHU

Timeline: Submission of full papers January 08, 2024

Further details

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Volume 233 Issue 1

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Inhalt / Contents

Editorial Announcement

Multivariate Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Modeling by Genetic Algorithms

Abstract

On Interaction Effects: The Case of Heckit and Two-Part Models

Abstract

Schumpeter, Marshall, and Neo-Schumpeterian Evolutionary Economics

A Critical Stocktaking

Abstract

Ökonometrie vs. Projektdesign: Lehren aus der Evaluation eines Modellprojekts zur Umsetzung des Workfare-Konzepts

Abstract

Labor Market Effects of Trade and FDI – Recent Advances and Research Gaps

Abstract

Buchbesprechungen / Book Reviews