Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Open Access Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg

Volume 240 Issue 6

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Contents
Journal Overview

Publicly Available September 29, 2020

Frontmatter

Page range: i-iii

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Original Articles

December 10, 2019

How Repayments Manipulate Our Perceptions about Loan Dynamics after a Boom

Ramón Adalid, Matteo Falagiarda

Page range: 697-742

Abstract

We propose a method to decompose net lending flows into loan origination and repayments. We show that a boom in loan origination is transmitted to repayments with a very long lag, depressing the growth rate of the stock for many periods. In the euro area, repayments of the mortgage loans granted in the boom preceding the financial crisis have been dragging down net loan growth in recent years. This concealed an increasing dynamism in loan origination, especially during the last wave of ECB’s non-standard measures. Using loan origination instead of net loans has important implications for understanding macroeconomic developments. For instance, the robust developments in loan origination in recent times explain the strengthening in housing markets better than net loans. Moreover, credit supply restrictions during the crisis are estimated to be smaller. Overall, we show that analyses of credit dynamics benefit from putting the focus on loan origination instead of net loans, especially after large booms.

February 11, 2020

Early Prediction of University Dropouts – A Random Forest Approach

Andreas Behr, Marco Giese, Herve D. Teguim K, Katja Theune

Page range: 743-789

Abstract

We predict university dropout using random forests based on conditional inference trees and on a broad German data set covering a wide range of aspects of student life and study courses. We model the dropout decision as a binary classification (graduate or dropout) and focus on very early prediction of student dropout by stepwise modeling students’ transition from school (pre-study) over the study-decision phase (decision phase) to the first semesters at university (early study phase). We evaluate how predictive performance changes over the three models, and observe a substantially increased performance when including variables from the first study experiences, resulting in an AUC (area under the curve) of 0.86. Important predictors are the final grade at secondary school, and also determinants associated with student satisfaction and their subjective academic self-concept and self-assessment. A direct outcome of this research is the provision of information to universities wishing to implement early warning systems and more personalized counseling services to support students at risk of dropping out during an early stage of study.

Under Debate

February 27, 2020

Sample Size Calculation in Economic Experiments

Sven Grüner

Page range: 791-823

Abstract

Clinical studies and economic experiments are often conducted with randomized controlled trials. In clinical studies, power calculations are carried out as a standard. But what’s about economic experiments? After describing the basic idea of the calculation procedure in a brief tutorial, I tackle the practice of sample size calculations in the field of experimental economics by considering the publications of 5 economic journals in the period 2000–2018. These are two top-ranked economic journals ( Quarterly Journal of Economics and American Economic Review ) , the leading field journals in the area of experimental economics ( Experimental Economics ) and behavioral sciences ( Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization ), and a leading field journal in environmental economics ( Environmental and Resource Economics ). In contrast to clinical drug trials, sample size calculations have rarely been carried out by experimental economists. But the number of power calculations has slightly increased in recent years, especially in the top-ranked journals of economics. However, this can be partly explained by the fact that field experiments (in which scholars pay more attention to power analyses than in lab experiments these days) play an important role in these journals.

Data Observer

Publicly Available November 28, 2019

Statutory Pension Insurance Accounts and Divorce: A New Scientific Use File

Wolfgang Keck, Anke Radenacker, Daniel Brüggmann, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Tatjana Mika

Page range: 825-835

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Publicly Available December 4, 2019

An Introduction to the German Twin Family Panel (TwinLife)

Volker Lang, Lena Weigel, Bastian Mönkediek, Myriam A. Baum, Harald Eichhorn, Eike F. Eifler, Elisabeth Hahn, Anke Hufer, Christoph H. Klatzka, Anita Kottwitz, Kristina Krell, Amelie Nikstat, Martin Diewald, Rainer Riemann, Frank M. Spinath

Page range: 837-847

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Publicly Available January 31, 2020

Data for Mittelstand Companies in Germany at the IfM Bonn

Nadine Schlömer-Laufen, Stefan Schneck

Page range: 849-859

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Miscellaneous

Publicly Available September 28, 2020

Annual Reviewer Acknowledgement

Peter Winker

Page range: 861-862

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About this journal

The Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) is a scientific journal published in Germany since 1863. The journal publishes papers in all fields of economics and applied statistics. A specific focus is on papers combining theory with empirical analyses. Papers providing conclusions for economic policy in Europe are particularly welcome. Nevertheless, distinguished papers dealing exlusively with economic theory, empirical models, or economic history, will not be excluded from consideration.

The editors invite replication studies focusing on the robustness of empirical findings. The section Data Observer presents articles on data sets available for empirical research and institutions providing research data. The journal also publishes special issues, short comments, and book reviews. All freely accessible contributions, including the Data Observer articles, can be found via the website's article search functionality.

Journal of Economics and Statistics now also at Twitter.

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Starting 2023, the Journal of Economics and Statistics will be transferred to Diamond Open Access on a year-by-year basis. All articles will thus immediately appear under the Creative Commons license CC-BY. There will be no publication costs for the authors.
The Open Access transformation is based on Subscribe-to-Open, an alternative model that enables the full Open Access transformation of journals through the continuation of existing subscriptions. The prerequisite for successful transformation is that subscriptions are continued to the same extent as before. The editors of the Journal of Economics and Statistics and the publisher De Gruyter would therefore like to thank all subscribers for their support, which has made the transformation to Open Access possible.

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Call for Papers

Special Issue on "Sports Economics"

Guest Editors: Bernd Frick, Paderborn University; Thomas Peeters, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Rob Simmons, Lancaster University

Timeline: Submission of full papers November 30, 2023

Further details

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Special Issue on "Advancing Agent-Based Economics"

Guest Editors: Michael Neugart, Technical University of Darmstadt) and Frank Westerhoff, University of Bamberg

Timeline: Submission of full papers December 31, 2023

Further details

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Special Issue on "Central Bank Digital Currency"

Guest Editors: Katrin Assenmacher, European Central Bank and Michael Frenkel, WHU

Timeline: Submission of full papers January 08, 2024

Further details

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