Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Open Access Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg

Volume 242 Issue 2

Issue of Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik

Submit manuscript

Contents
Journal Overview

Publicly Available April 5, 2022

Frontmatter

Page range: i-iii

Download PDF

Original Articles

Open Access February 22, 2022

The Impact of Forecast Errors on Fiscal Planning and Debt Accumulation

Martin Ademmer, Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

Page range: 171-190

More Download PDF

Abstract

We investigate the impact of errors in medium run tax revenue forecasts on the final budget balance. Our analysis is based on fiscal data for the entirety of German states and takes advantage of revenue forecasts and respective errors that can be considered as exogenously given in the budgeting process. We find that forecast errors at various forecast horizons translate considerably into the final budget balance, indicating that expenditure plans get only marginally adjusted when revenue forecasts get revised. Consequently, errors in tax revenue forecasts may considerably affect the accumulation of public debt. Our calculations suggest that a significant share of total debt of German states results from forecasts that were too optimistic.

February 18, 2022

Testing Investment Forecast Efficiency with Forecasting Narratives

Alexander Foltas

Page range: 191-222

Abstract

I analyze the narratives that accompany business cycle forecasting reports of three German institutes using topic models. To this end, I gather multiple similar topics into different economic subject categories, allowing me to map shifting prioritizations within and between these subjects. Subsequently, I examine whether forecasting narratives contain additional information not captured by traditional indicators and include them in a random forest-based investment-forecast efficiency analysis. I find multiple correlations between narratives and forecast errors and conclude that forecasters inefficiently incorporate qualitative information in these cases. I raise the idea that further investigations with more precise identification of forecasting narratives could improve qualitative information processing or lead to scientific guidelines for forecast adjustments.

December 3, 2021

The Role of Non-performing Loans for Bank Lending Rates

Sebastian Bredl

Page range: 223-276

Abstract

Based on bank level data from the euro area, I investigate the role of non-performing loans (NPLs) for lending rates on newly granted loans. The focus is on an effect caused by the stock of NPLs that extends beyond losses that banks have already incorporated into their reported capital positions. The paper assesses the channels through which such an effect occurs. The results indicate that a higher stock of NPLs is associated with higher lending rates. This relation is driven by net NPLs, which constitute the part of NPLs that is not covered by loan loss reserves. Although the stock of NPLs affects banks’ idiosyncratic funding costs as well, the latter do not seem to constitute an important link between the stock of net NPLs and lending behaviour. This is because the relation between idiosyncratic funding costs and lending rates turns out to be rather weak. Furthermore, NPLs do not strongly affect the banks’ interest rate pass-through.

Under Debate

January 28, 2022

Abwanderung, Widerspruch und Camouflage. Reaktionen auf demokratischen Leistungsabfall

Bruno S. Frey

Page range: 277-290

Abstract

Zusammenfassung Albert O. Hirschmans Unterscheidung von „Abwanderung und Widerspruch“ als Antwort auf den Leistungsabfall von Staaten hat grosse Aufmerksamkeit gefunden. Es gibt jedoch eine dritte Antwort, nämlich Camouflage, Stillhalten als Tarnung, bis sich die Bedingungen verbessern. Diese Strategie wird häufig praktiziert, weil ihr Nutzen oft in einem günstigen Verhältnis zu den entstehenden Kosten steht. Die Kosten sind im Fall des Ausstiegs oder des Widerspruches oft hoch. Deshalb tarnt sich eine große Mehrheit der Bürgerinnen und Bürger, wenn sie mit den Ansichten und der Politik eines Regimes nicht einverstanden ist. Sie wartet, bis das unterdrückerische Regime zerbröckelt ist, um im richtigen Moment umso stärker aktiv werden zu können. Camouflage findet auch in privaten Unternehmungen, öffentlichen Einrichtungen und in der Wissenschaft statt. Nutzen und Kosten der drei Reaktionen – Abwanderung, Widerspruch und Camouflage – unterscheiden sich stark voneinander.

Data Observer

Open Access July 30, 2021

SOEP-RV: Linking German Socio-Economic Panel Data to Pension Records

Holger Lüthen, Carsten Schröder, Markus M. Grabka, Jan Goebel, Tatjana Mika, Daniel Brüggmann, Sebastian Ellert, Hannah Penz

Page range: 291-307

More Download PDF

Abstract

The aim of the project SOEP-RV is to link data from participants in the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) survey to their individual Deutsche Rentenversicherung (German Pension Insurance) records. For all SOEP respondents who give explicit consent to record linkage, SOEP-RV creates a linked dataset that combines the comprehensive multi-topic SOEP data with detailed cross-sectional and longitudinal data on social security pension records covering the individual’s entire insurance history. This article provides an overview of the record linkage project, highlights potentials for analysis of the linked data, compares key SOEP and pension insurance variables, and suggests a re-weighting procedure that corrects for selectivity. It concludes with details on the process of obtaining the data for scientific use.

About this journal

The Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik) is a scientific journal published in Germany since 1863. The journal publishes papers in all fields of economics and applied statistics. A specific focus is on papers combining theory with empirical analyses. Papers providing conclusions for economic policy in Europe are particularly welcome. Nevertheless, distinguished papers dealing exlusively with economic theory, empirical models, or economic history, will not be excluded from consideration.

The editors invite replication studies focusing on the robustness of empirical findings. The section Data Observer presents articles on data sets available for empirical research and institutions providing research data. The journal also publishes special issues, short comments, and book reviews. All freely accessible contributions, including the Data Observer articles, can be found via the website's article search functionality.

Journal of Economics and Statistics now also at Twitter.

Subscribe to Open

Starting 2023, the Journal of Economics and Statistics will be transferred to Diamond Open Access on a year-by-year basis. All articles will thus immediately appear under the Creative Commons license CC-BY. There will be no publication costs for the authors.
The Open Access transformation is based on Subscribe-to-Open, an alternative model that enables the full Open Access transformation of journals through the continuation of existing subscriptions. The prerequisite for successful transformation is that subscriptions are continued to the same extent as before. The editors of the Journal of Economics and Statistics and the publisher De Gruyter would therefore like to thank all subscribers for their support, which has made the transformation to Open Access possible.

******************************************************

New Call for Papers

Special Issue on "Advancing Agent-Based Economics"

Guest Editors: Michael Neugart, Technical University of Darmstadt) and Frank Westerhoff, University of Bamberg

Timeline: Submission of full papers December 31, 2023

Further details

******************************************************

Call for Papers

Special Issue on “Atypical Employment”

Guest editors: Regina T. Riphahn, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg
Conny Wunsch, Universität Basel

Timeline: Submission of full papers December 31, 2022

Further details

******************************************************

Call for Papers

Special Issue on “Empirical Studies with Micro-Data from Official Statistics in Germany”

Guest editors: Thomas K. Bauer, Ruhr-University Bochum
Regina T. Riphahn, University of Erlangen-Nürnberg
Joachim Wanger, Leuphana University Lüneburg

Timeline: Submission of full papers (extended deadline) November 30, 2022

Further details

******************************************************

Call for Papers

Special Issue on "Minimum Wages – Experiences of European Countries"

Guest editors: Matthias Duetsch and Clemens Ohlert, Coordination and Information Office for the Minimum Wage, Berlin; Christian Pfeifer, Leuphana University Lueneburg; Conny Wunsch, University of Basel

Timeline: Submission of full papers May 1, 2023

Further details

******************************************************