Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg

Volume 66 Issue 1

Issue of Review of Economics

Contents
Journal Overview

February 11, 2016

Page range: i-i

February 11, 2016

What Caused the Great Recession?

Stefan Homburg

Page range: 1-12

Abstract

This paper examines five possible explanations for the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009, using data for the United States and the eurozone. Of these five hypotheses, four are not supported by the data, while the fifth appears reasonable.

February 11, 2016

Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany

Tim Oliver Berg

Page range: 13-46

Abstract

This paper provides novel evidence on the time varying impact of government spending shocks on output in Germany over the years 1970 to 2013. In a first step, I use an expectations-augmented vector autoregressive model with time varying parameters (TVP-VAR) to show that fiscal multipliers are not stable over time but exhibit a ushaped pattern. While multipliers fluctuate around 2 at the beginning and end of the sample, they are much smaller in between. In a second step, I discuss which factors determine the magnitude of German multipliers and hence explain the observed variation. It turns out that fiscal policy is more effective when business uncertainty is high but less in periods of financial market stress, while the state of the business cycle is of minor importance. Moreover, I find that fiscal sustainability is a crucial determinant of the multipliers. I conclude that policy recommendations based on average multipliers are misleading.

February 11, 2016

Planned Fiscal Consolidations and Growth Forecast Errors – New Panel Evidence on Fiscal Multipliers

Ansgar Belke, Dominik Kronen, Thomas Osowski

Page range: 47-70

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effect of planned fiscal consolidation on GDP growth forecast errors from the years 2010-2013 using cross section analyses and fixed effects estimations. Our main findings are that fiscal multipliers have been underestimated in most instances for the year 2011 while we find little to no evidence for the years 2010 and especially the latter years 2012/13. Since the underestimation of fiscal multipliers seems to have decreased over time, it may indicate learning effects of forecasters. However, the implications for fiscal policy should be considered with caution as a false forecast of fiscal multipliers does not confirm that austerity is the wrong fiscal approach but only suggests a too optimistic assessment of fiscal multipliers for the year 2011.

February 11, 2016

Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony

Steffen R. Henzel, Robert Lehmann, Klaus Wohlrabe

Page range: 71-98

Abstract

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level, using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly take into account the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each quarter. It appears that regional survey results in particular improve forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional indicators. Hard indicators from the German manufacturing sector and the Composite Leading Indicator for Europe also deliver useful information for the prediction of regional GDP in Saxony. Unlike national GDP forecasts, the performance of regional GDP is similar across different information sets within a quarter.

February 11, 2016

Determinants of house price dynamics. What can we learn from search engine data?

Marco Oestmann, Lars Bennöhr

Page range: 99-127

Abstract

There is a broad literature on determinants of house price dynamics, which received increasing attention in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. Additional to macroeconomic standard variables, there might be other hard to measure or even unobservable factors influencing real estate prices. Using quarterly data, we try to increase the informational input of conventional models and capture such effects by including Google search engine query information into a set of standard fundamental variables explaining house prices. We use the house price index (HPI) published by Eurostat to perform fixed-effects regressions for a panel of 14 EU-countries comprising the years 2005-2013. We find that Google data as a single aggregate measure plays a prominent role in explaining house price developments.

About this journal

Welcome! As of 2016 the Review of Economics as well as all other journals of Lucius and Lucius Verlagsgesellschaft are published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg.

Aims and Scope
The Review of Economics (Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftswissenschaften) is a peer-reviewed general interest journal and publishes articles from all fields of economics.
Only articles with a strong policy focus are considered for publication. The Review of Economics will consider papers that are based on (i) a well defined theoretical model (ii) an empirical analysis or (iii) an experimental or (iv) an evidence-based framework.
The Review of Economics is also highly interested in survey articles on important policy issues.
Since the Review of Economics intends to deliver a forum for policy contributions and to influence the public debate we guarantee a quick and efficient referee process (the initial publication decision will be made within a maximum of 90 days). The editors may decide to publish papers without a referee process whenever authors send their submissions together with the referee reports and the decision letter of the previous submission and explain how they reacted to the reports. Accepted articles will be pre-published on the internet page of the journal as soon as they are accepted. Because the Review of Economics is not an e-Journal all articles also appear in a regular print version with some delay.

Partner Journal
Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

The Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (ISSN 0015-1920) is an English-language, double-blind refereed academic journal published in Prague since 1951. It devotes special attention to monetary economics, public finance, financial economics, and international economics, but it is open to high-quality papers from all fields of modern economics. The editors prefer empirically oriented papers, but do not exclude review articles or theoretical contributions provided that they are of high quality and relevant to the journal's aims.

Volume 66 Issue 1

Issue of Review of Economics

Contents

What Caused the Great Recession?

Abstract

Time Varying Fiscal Multipliers in Germany

Abstract

Planned Fiscal Consolidations and Growth Forecast Errors – New Panel Evidence on Fiscal Multipliers

Abstract

Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony

Abstract

Determinants of house price dynamics. What can we learn from search engine data?

Abstract