Published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg

Volume 67 Issue 1 - Special Issue: 10th Workshop on Macroeconomics & Business Cycles Research 9th/20th November 2015 at the ifo Institute, Dresden

Issue of Review of Economics

Contents
Journal Overview

Publicly Available May 11, 2016

Frontmatter

Page range: i-iii

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May 11, 2016

Growth in European Crisis Countries: Cyclical Normality or the Result of Structural Reforms?

Kai Hielscher

Page range: 1-23

Abstract

In mid-2013 the macroeconomic situation in European crisis economies started to show signs of recovery. In the political debate, improving economic conditions were often attributed to recently enacted structural reforms. In this paper, we use empirical business cycle models to indirectly assess the short term impact of recent structural reforms on growth. Given the past deep recession, a typical cyclical movement would imply far higher growth rates than have been observed in such countries in the recent recovery. Short-term economic performance is rather a sign of a long-lasting and severe weakness in demand which can almost exclusively be explained by characteristics of business cycles following financial crises as well as the initial situation in European crisis economies prior to 2009. With different approaches we are not able to deliver evidence that structural reforms have yet had a significant impact on growth, neither a positive nor a negative one. It will still take time for growth effects to materialize.

May 11, 2016

The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Activity in the Euro Area

Arne Gieseck, Yannis Largent

Page range: 25-52

Abstract

The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on activity has been a subject of heightened interest in recent years. Empirical literature typically focuses on the US or on individual euro area countries by using the VAR approach. However, there is limited quantitative evidence about the impact of uncertainty on euro area activity available as yet. In this paper, we derive measures of macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area from an encompassing dataset, and single out some indicators of uncertainty based on theoretical plausibility and empirical evidence. From this set of indicators, we derive an aggregate measure of macroeconomic uncertainty in the euro area. Using a multivariate structural VAR approach, we then offer some quantitative evidence on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on euro area activity during the period 1999–2015. Our main findings show that heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by the proposed indicators, does have a strongly adverse impact on activity in the euro area, albeit the deepness and duration of the shocks differ somewhat across uncertainty measures.

May 11, 2016

Characteristics and Drivers of the Swiss “Job Miracle”

Michael Siegenthaler, Michael Graff, Massimo Mannino

Page range: 53-89

Abstract

Switzerland’s employment growth since the early 2000s was very high in both historical and international perspective, despite solid real wage increases and only moderate GDP growth. Yet, the reasons for the remarkable creation of jobs are largely unknown. We aim at filling this gap by studying the underlying characteristics and drivers of the Swiss “job miracle”. We first outline the characteristics of the “job miracle” and show that the observed job growth correlates with a substantial increase in the labor intensity of economic activity. We then discuss five potential drivers of the unprecedented employment growth, which are consistent with the facts. Our empirical results suggest that immigration was the key factor in explaining the “job miracle” as it raised local demand and thereby triggered the creation of additional jobs.

May 11, 2016

The Costs of Implementing a Unilateral One-Sided Exchange Rate Target Zone

Markus Hertrich

Page range: 91-120

Abstract

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the central banks of small open economies such as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) implemented a unilateral one-sided exchange rate target zone vis-à-vis the euro currency to counteract deflationary pressures. Recently, the SNB abandoned its minimum exchange rate regime, arguing that after having analyzed the costs and benefits of this non-standard exchange rate policy measure, it was no longer sustainable. This paper proposes a model that allows central banks and policymakers to estimate ex-ante the costs of implementing and maintaining a unilateral one-sided target zone (in terms of the expected size of foreign-exchange interventions) and to monitor these costs during the period in which it is enforced. The model also offers central banks a tool to identify the right timing for the discontinuation of a minimum exchange rate regime. An empirical application to the Swiss case shows the ex-ante estimated size of these costs and reveals that these costs might have been substantial without the abandonment of the minimum exchange rate regime, which accords with the official statements of the SNB.

About this journal

Welcome! As of 2016 the Review of Economics as well as all other journals of Lucius and Lucius Verlagsgesellschaft are published by De Gruyter Oldenbourg.

Aims and Scope
The Review of Economics (Jahrbuch für Wirtschaftswissenschaften) is a peer-reviewed general interest journal and publishes articles from all fields of economics.
Only articles with a strong policy focus are considered for publication. The Review of Economics will consider papers that are based on (i) a well defined theoretical model (ii) an empirical analysis or (iii) an experimental or (iv) an evidence-based framework.
The Review of Economics is also highly interested in survey articles on important policy issues.
Since the Review of Economics intends to deliver a forum for policy contributions and to influence the public debate we guarantee a quick and efficient referee process (the initial publication decision will be made within a maximum of 90 days). The editors may decide to publish papers without a referee process whenever authors send their submissions together with the referee reports and the decision letter of the previous submission and explain how they reacted to the reports. Accepted articles will be pre-published on the internet page of the journal as soon as they are accepted. Because the Review of Economics is not an e-Journal all articles also appear in a regular print version with some delay.

Partner Journal
Czech Journal of Economics and Finance

The Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (ISSN 0015-1920) is an English-language, double-blind refereed academic journal published in Prague since 1951. It devotes special attention to monetary economics, public finance, financial economics, and international economics, but it is open to high-quality papers from all fields of modern economics. The editors prefer empirically oriented papers, but do not exclude review articles or theoretical contributions provided that they are of high quality and relevant to the journal's aims.