Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics

Published by De Gruyter

Volume 9 Issue 1

March 2005

Issue of Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics

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Contents
Journal Overview

Article

March 14, 2005

A Video Interview of Buz Brock

Bruce Mizrach

Abstract

This article is a video presentation of an interview with Buz Brock at the 12th SNDE conference in Atlanta Georgia on March 12, 2004. The interview includes 15 questions on topics ranging from nonlinear dynamics, ecological modeling, and heterogenous agents.

March 14, 2005

A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis

Ventzislav Ivanov, Lutz Kilian

Abstract

It is common in empirical macroeconomics to fit vector autoregressive (VAR) models to construct estimates of impulse responses. An important preliminary step in impulse response analysis is the selection of the VAR lag order. In this paper, we compare the six lag-order selection criteria most commonly used in applied work. Our metric is the mean-squared error (MSE) of the implied pointwise impulse response estimates normalized relative to their MSE based on knowing the true lag order. Based on our simulation design we conclude that for monthly VAR models, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) tends to produce the most accurate structural and semi-structural impulse response estimates for realistic sample sizes. For quarterly VAR models, the Hannan-Quinn Criterion (HQC) appears to be the most accurate criterion with the exception of sample sizes smaller than 120, for which the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) is more accurate. For persistence profiles based on quarterly vector error correction models with known cointegrating vector, our results suggest that the SIC is the most accurate criterion for all realistic sample sizes.

March 14, 2005

Small Sample Bias of Alternative Estimation Methods for Moment Condition Models: Monte Carlo Evidence for Covariance Structures

Joaquim J.S. Ramalho

Abstract

It is now widely recognized that the most commonly used efficient two-step GMM estimator may have large bias in small samples. In this paper we analyze by simulation the finite sample bias of two classes of alternative estimators. The first includes estimators which are asymptotically first-order equivalent to the GMM estimator, namely the continuous-updating, exponential tilting, and empirical likelihood estimators. Analytical and bootstrap bias-adjusted GMM estimators form the second class of alternatives. The Monte Carlo simulation study conducted in the paper for covariance structure models shows that all alternative estimators offer much reduced bias as compared to the GMM estimator, particularly the empirical likelihood and some of the bias-corrected GMM estimators.

March 14, 2005

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Unit Root Bilinear Model with an Application to Prices

Daniela Hristova

Abstract

We estimate a unit root bilinear process using the Maximum Likelihood method with log-likelihood function constructed by means of the Kalman filter, and evaluate the finite sample properties of this estimator.One hundred and five world-wide price series are tested for unit root bilinearity applying the test suggested by Charemza et al. (forthcoming). Applying the Maximum Likelihood estimator based on the Kalman filter, the null hypothesis of no bilinearity is rejected for 39 out of 105 series at the 5% level of significance. Most of the significant unit root bilinear coefficient estimates are explosive.

March 14, 2005

Transitional Dynamics in an Endogenous Growth Model with Physical Capital, Human Capital and R&D

Manuel A Gómez

Abstract

We analyze the transitional dynamics of an endogenous growth model with physical capital, human capital, and R&D. We provide conditions for the existence of a feasible steady state equilibrium with positive long-run growth. For appropriate parameter values, the transitional dynamics of the model is represented by a two-dimensional stable manifold. This provides much richer dynamics than that of the standard two-sector endogenous growth model which is characterized by a one-dimensional stable manifold. We also show how the adjustment paths can be correctly computed by noting that the continuity of the shadow prices involves the continuity of transitional paths.

March 14, 2005

Wavelet Transforms and Commodity Prices

Jeff Connor, Rosemary Rossiter

Abstract

Traders in commodity markets may have different time horizons. This paper uses a scale analysis to investigate heterogeneous trading in such markets. Estimates are presented for price correlations by scale and long memory in the volatility of commodity prices. Wavelet variance is estimated using non-decimated wavelet transforms. Wavelets have the potential to be a useful tool for scale analysis in economics.

March 14, 2005

Nonlinear Error-Correction Models for the FF/DM Rate

Mustapha Baghli

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the empirical analysis of the dynamic behaviour of the FF/DM parity during the September 1987-July 1993 period. By explicitly allowing the strength of adjustment to vary with the extent of equilibrium error, we successively perform parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric estimations of the functional form of the nonlinear error-correction term. On the basis of these econometric tools, we highlight a stronger correction of positive deviations of the parity from the level consistent with its macroeconomic fundamentals and a nonlinear reversion towards a set of equilibrium exchange rates. This asymmetric adjustment of deviations from equilibrium discloses a reluctance for the undervaluation of the FF over the period.

Replication

March 14, 2005

Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation

M. Ege Yazgan, Hakan Yilmazkuday

Abstract

Recent empirical research on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) does not offer any supporting evidence for its benchmark version in which all firms are forward-looking. There is, however, empirical support for a modified, hybrid, NPKC, in which only a proportion of the firms that use a forward-looking rule to set prices.This paper estimates both the benchmark and the hybrid versions of the NKPC using Turkish data. In contrast with the previous applications on developed countries like the U.S. and several Euro area countries, we find empirical support for the benchmark NPKC. This support persists even after controlling for the weak identification problem which has been a serious concern in generalized method of moment estimation. Moreover, the hybrid NKPC is refuted by the data, i.e. the backward-looking behavior is found to be statistically insignificant.

About this journal

Objective
A peer-reviewed journal since 1996, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics (SNDE) is at the forefront of statistical and theoretical approaches to economics. The journal studies ways in which econometrics and dynamical systems theory increase our understanding of economic and financial markets. The journal disseminates authors' algorithms, programs, and data sets, allowing other scholars to replicate empirical results. Authors include econometricians such as Clive Granger, James Hamilton, and Halbert White, and theorists Jess Benhabib, Alan Kirman, and Kazuo Nishimura.

Best Paper Award
Since 2015, the Society has awarded $500 each year to the best paper published in the Society’s journal: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics.

The Best Paper in 2022 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, has been awarded to Szabolcs Blazsek, Alvaro Escribano and Adrian Licht. for their paper: "Multivariate Markov-switching score-driven models: an application to the global crude oil market" Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, vol. 26, no. 3, 2022, pp. 313-335.

The Best Paper in 2021 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, has been awarded to Eric Mark Aldrich and Howard Kung for their paper: “Computational Methods for Production-Based Asset Pricing Models with Recursive Utility”, published in Volume 25, Issue 1.

The Best Paper in 2020 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, has been awarded to Gregor Bäurle, Daniel Kaufmann, Sylvia Kaufmann and Rodney Strachan for their paper: “Constrained interest rates and changing dynamics at the zero lower bound”, published in Volume 24, Issue 2.

The Best Paper in 2019 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, has been awarded to Chang-Jin Kim and Yunmi Kim for their paper: “A unified framework jointly explaining business conditions, stock returns, volatility and “volatility feedback news” effects”, published in Volume 23, Issue 2.

The Best Paper in 2018 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, has been awarded to Luiggi Donayre, Yunjong Eo and James Morley for their paper: “Improving likelihood-ratio-based confidence intervals for threshold parameters in finite samples”,published in Volume 22, Issue 1 (Feb 2018)

The Best Paper in 2017 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics has been awarded to Julien Chevallier and Stephane Goutte for their paper: “On the estimation of regime-switching Levy models”, published in Volume 21, Issue 1 (Feb 2017).

The Best Paper in 2016 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics has been awarded to Mark J. Jensen for his paper: “Robust estimation of nonstationary, fractionally integrated, autoregressive, stochastic volatility?”, published in Volume 20, Issue 4 (Sept. 2016).

The Best Paper in 2015 for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics has been awarded to Markus Jochmann and Gary Koop for their paper: “Regime-switching cointegration?”, published in Volume 19, Issue 1 (Feb 2015).

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Probability
Statistics
Macroeconomics
Finance
Forecasting
Econometrics

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