Published since January 1, 2010

Statistics, Politics and Policy

ISSN: 2151-7509

Editor-in-chief: Uwe Wagschal

About this journal

Objective
Statistics, Politics, and Policy studies the ways that statistical analysis drives public policy decisions, and publishes significant research on the application of statistical ideas to problems that relate to policy implementation.

The increasing amount and complexity of available data is constantly creating new challenges for statistical thinking in policy problems. While many academic statisticians tend to share among themselves their latest methods and models, less attention has been paid to the usefulness of those statistical methods and models to inform public policy decisions, and what statistical approaches might be most effective in designing how policies are implemented. In the policy sphere, statistical methods are sometimes taken as a given, with less attention to all the variations, assumptions, and effects of different methods in differing contexts. But it is in the policy sphere that statistical debates can have the great value and impact, and the intersection of statistics and public policy is a fertile ground for statistical research and analysis to address important policy issues that may have widespread ramifications.

As an electronic journal, Statistics, Politics, and Policy will use a mix of voices and approaches to reach a broad audience. The journal aims to open avenues of communication between statisticians and policy makers on questions that pique the interest of the public. The primary objective of the journal will be to highlight the use of innovative statistical methodology in order to elucidate and resolve important public policy issues.

Statistics, Politics, and Policy will publish applied research articles that explore the implications of statistical thinking and methods applied to public policy issues. The journal will also publish engaging commentary pieces and innovative policy ideas on the public issues of the day where statistics plays, or ought to play, a role.

Papers for the commentary and ideas section are short, ideally 600-2000 words, and are intended to be of general interest and readability. That is, they should contain deeper analysis than is found on the Op-Ed page of The Wall Street Journal or The New York Times, but to be of comparable interest the Statistics, Politics, and Policy readership.

Topics

Applied statistical research
Policy issues
Educational testing and policy
Energy and environmental policy
Demography
Climate change
Public finance
History and review of statistical ideas applied to public policy controversies
Taxation and business policy
Justice, crime and forensic analyses
Health policy including health care finance
Drug development
Approval and monitoring
Politics
Sociological policy analyses
Statistical methodology including study design and causal inference, and survey methods

Article formats
Research articles, commentaries

Information on submission process

Your Benefits

CALL FOR PAPERS

Topic:　Inequality
Submission deadline: 01.08.2021
Please see the detailed call for papers here

The current Call for Papers does not correspond with your research topic? Submit your paper to our regular issues if your field of research corresponds with the overall focus of Statistics, Politics and Policy (SPP). We are always looking forward to publish new and innovative contributions to the fields of political, social, economic and statistical sciences.

Your benefits

Prestigious editors
High quality peer review
International recognition of the journal
Innovative approach to Statistics, Politics and Policy
Practical use of scientific knowledge in policy implementation

From 2021 onwards, Statistics, Politics and Policy awards the Emil J. Gumbel Prize for outstanding contributions to the Journal.
All submitted full articles and research notes are eligible to win this award. The award comes with a modest financial reward of 500 $ and the full recognition regarding the merits of the published research contribution.
The award winner is chosen annually by members of our editorial board.　

History

Two issues/year, updated continuously
ISSN: 2151-7509

Abstracting and Indexing

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Baidu Scholar
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ERIH PLUS (European Reference Index for the Humanities and Social Sciences)
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IBR (International Bibliography of Reviews of Scholarly Literature in the Humanities and Social Sciences)
IBZ (International Bibliography of Periodical Literature in the Humanities and Social Sciences)
J-Gate
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Ulrich's Periodicals Directory/ulrichsweb
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Supplementary Materials

Topics

External Links

Online Submission of Manuscripts

Volume 12 Issue 1

June 2021

Accessible July 27, 2021

Frontmatter

Page range: i-iv

Download PDF

June 17, 2021

Editors’ Note

Uwe Wagschal, Felix Ettensperger, Thomas Waldvogel

Page range: 1-3

Articles

April 13, 2021

Debate Reaction Ideal Points: Political Ideology Measurement Using Real-Time Reaction Data

Daniel Argyle, Lisa P. Argyle, Vlad Eidelman, Philip Resnik

Page range: 5-28

Abstract

Ideal point models have become a powerful tool for defining and measuring the ideology of many kinds of political actors, including legislators, judges, campaign donors, and members of the general public. We extend the application of ideal point models to the public using a novel data source: real-time reactions to statements by candidates in the 2012 presidential debates. Using these reactions as inputs to an ideal point model, we estimate individual-level ideology and evaluate the quality of the measure. Debate reaction ideal points provide a method for estimating a continuous, individual-level measure of ideology that avoids survey response biases, provides better estimates for moderates and the politically unengaged, and reflects the content of salient political discourse relevant to viewers’ attitudes and vote choices. As expected, we find that debate reaction ideal points are more extreme among respondents who strongly identify with a political party, but retain substantial within-party variation. Ideal points are also more extreme among respondents who are more politically interested. Using topical subsets of the debate statements, we find that ideal points in the sample are more moderate for foreign policy than for economic or domestic policy.

July 9, 2021

Heuristic Synchronization of Real-Time Response Data

Samuel Weishaupt, Linus Feiten, Bernd Becker, Uwe Wagschal, Thomas Waldvogel, Thomas Metz

Page range: 29-52

Abstract

When real-time response data from viewers of a televised debate is collected via the internet, the server timestamps of the received responses may not match the correct times of the debate. This paper addresses the question of how the data could be aligned in retrospect, using an algorithm that approximates the playout delay difference between each viewer’s TV signal. The validity is shown by successfully approximating distinctive delays for viewers with satellite or cable TV.

May 18, 2021

Assessing the Impact of Political Involvement on the Reliability and Validity of Virtualized Real-time-response Measurement

Thomas Waldvogel, Thomas Metz, Uwe Wagschal, Bernd Becker, Linus Feiten, Samuel Weishaupt

Page range: 53-86

Abstract

How does political involvement impact on data quality of virtualized Real-Time-Response (RTR) Measurement? The article addresses this issue, drawing on a large field study (n = 5660) conducted during the 2017 German general election campaign. Since it is unclear how heterogeneous characteristics of individuals influence data quality of RTR-Measurement from audiences surveyed outside the lab, we assess the impact of political involvement on the reliability and validity of virtualized real-time-response data. We show that political involvement shapes reliability and validity systematically but to a degree that does not compromise established standards of data quality. Thus, we conclude that virtualized RTR outside the laboratory with limited means of control is an appropriate method to survey heterogeneous samples in large N-field studies and therefore offers new paths of data collection.

Open Access March 31, 2021

Tracing Policy-relevant Information in Social Media: The Case of Twitter before and during the COVID-19 Crisis

Simon Vydra, Jaroslaw Kantorowicz

Page range: 87-127

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Abstract

Real-time social media data hold great conceptual promise for research and policymaking, but also face substantial limitations and shortcomings inherent to processing re-purposed data in near-real-time. This paper aims to fill two research gaps important for understanding utility of real-time social media data for policymaking: What policy-relevant information is contained in this data and whether this information changes in periods of abrupt social, economic, and policy change. To do so, this paper focuses on two salient policy areas heavily affected by the lockdown policies responding to the 2020 COVID-19 crisis – early childhood education and care policies, and labor market policies focused on (un)employment. We utilize Twitter data for a four-month period during the first wave of COVID-19 and data for the same four-month period the preceding year. We analyze this data using a novel method combining structural topic models and latent semantic scaling, which allows us to summarize the data in detail and to test for change of content between the period of ‘normalcy’ and period of ‘crisis’. With regards to the first research gap, we show that there is policy-relevant information in Twitter data, but that the majority of our data is of limited relevance, and that the data that is relevant present some challenges and limitations. With regards to the second research gap, we successfully quantify the change in relevant information between periods of ‘normalcy’ and ‘crisis’. We also comment on the practicality and advantages of our approach for leveraging micro-blogging data in near real-time.

Election and Public Administration Research

February 16, 2021

Statistical Considerations on Political Responsivity in Italy Analyzed Over the 70-Year Time Period from 1948 to 2018

Matteo Cirillo

Page range: 129-160

Abstract

The time evolution of the response of electors to political life is analyzed for the Italian Republic over a 70-year span in which 18 political elections have taken place. The basis for the performed analyses is the official data available from the Italian Ministry of Interiors exposing the results of the political elections from 1948 until 2018. The attention is concentrated on parameters providing information on the responsivity of the electors to country’s political life. These parameters, expressed in adequate percentages, are the effective number of voters and the percentage of these expressing blank or spoilt ballots. The time dependence of these parameters, over the analyzed period, shows regularities, correlations, and interesting peculiarities. The analysis concerns the results for both Chamber of Deputies and Chamber of Senators available, for each election, all along the 70-year time span that are those relative to people voting on the national territory. The results demonstrate that percentages of blank and spoilt ballots represent useful parameters to trace the responsivity of electors. Hypotheses for explaining the results obtained from the statistical analyses are presented both at technical and socio-political level.

Open Access April 14, 2021

The Results of Exit Polls in Kansas to Verify Voting Machine Counts in the November 2016 Election

Elizabeth Clarkson

Page range: 161-194

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Abstract

Citizens’ exit polls are performed by local voters to verify the official reported election results. Five citizens’ exit polls were run in southeast Kansas during the Nov 8th 2016 election. These exit polls were designed specifically to verify computer generated vote counts and run solely by volunteer labor, all local citizens who were willing to put in the necessary hours on Election Day to conduct the poll and later, to count the results by hand. These exit polls were able to obtain high participation rates resulting in the ability to detect small yet statistically significant differences. All five polling stations surveyed show evidence of multiple statistical anomalies in both the pattern and size of the errors between the official results and exit poll results although biases were not uniformly oriented across sites. The small discrepancies found in the studied races were insufficient to alter the outcomes. Non-response bias and unintentional errors were evaluated as potential causes; those explanations were plausible in some but not all cases. These results show a pattern of discrepancies between the exit polls and computer counted results displaying consistent bias within sites. This would be an expected outcome of a deliberate manipulation of the computer results. While this data doesn’t conclusively prove election interference and manipulation of votes counts, it should be taken seriously as a sign of such interference. Doubts about the accuracy of the reported results are appropriate unless other plausible explanations for the discrepancies can be found.

January 21, 2021

External Peer Challenge in Local Government: The Role of Spatial Spillover and Past Performance

Tim Jäkel

Page range: 195-215

Abstract

Voluntary assessments by a team of critical friends (external peer challenges) among local governments became established as popular complement to compulsory and centralized audits and inspections. This study empirically investigates the decision of English local authorities to have a voluntary peer challenge or not by taking advantage of an original dataset about participation in the Local Government Association’s Peer Challenge Programme (CPC) 2010–2015. We find that the LGA’s CPC programme does not carry a risk of leaving behind authorities with performance shortcomings. Councils with poor past performance scores and those with excellent ones do not differ in their tendency to invite a team of critical friends. Spatial clusters exist in the case of small district councils but not in the case of larger unitary authorities, London boroughs and metropolitan authorities. This implies that the corporate peer challenge process seems to be more suited to small authorities delivering community based services.

Ahead of Print / Just Accepted

Ahead of Print / Just Accepted

Volume 12 (2021)

Issue 1

Volume 11 (2020)

Volume 10 (2019)

Volume 9 (2018)

Volume 8 (2017)

Volume 3 (2012)

Volume 2 (2011)

Issue 1

Volume 1 (2010)

Issue 1

European Reference Index for the Humanities

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In this journal, authors have the option to publish their article under an open access license. Open Access allows you as an author to retain copyright and share your findings with colleagues and interested parties worldwide without any restraints.
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Editorial

Editor
Uwe Wagschal, University of Freiburg, Germany

Assistant Managing Editor
Felix Ettensperger, University of Freiburg, Germany

Associate Editors
David W. Nickerson, Temple University, Philadelphia, USA
Georg Wenzelburger, University of Kaiserlautern, Germany

Editorial Board
Hanna Bäck, Lund University, Sweden
Keith Dowding, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
Carsten Jensen, Aarhus University, Denmark
Gary King, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Bernhard Kittel, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Maria Kolosnitsyna, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia
Jonathan Slapin, University of Essex, Colchester, UK
Adrian Vatter, University of Bern, Switzerland
Barbara Vis, Vrije University Amsterdam, Netherlands

(Deutsch)

Online ISSN: 2151-7509
Print ISSN: 2194-6299
Type: Journal
Language: English
Publisher: De Gruyter
First published: January 1, 2010
Publication Frequency: 2 Issues per Year
Audience: Professional statisticians, statistically trained professionals from fields including epidemiology, education, economics, law, and policy analysis; policy analysts, and anyone interested in the implicit yet powerful ways that statistical thinking influences decisions that affect many aspects of public life.