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  • Autor: Louis-Paul Rivest x
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This work considers the estimation of the size N of a closed population using incomplete lists of its members. Capture histories are constructed by establishing the presence or the absence of each individual in all the lists available. Models for data featuring a heterogeneous catchability and list dependencies are considered. A log-linear model leading to a lower bound for the population size is derived for a known set of list dependencies and a latent catchability variable with an arbitrary distribution. This generalizes Chao’s lower bound to models with interactions. The proposed model can be used to carry out a search for important list interactions. It also provides diagnostic information about the nature of the underlying heterogeneity. Indeed, it is shown that the Poisson maximum likelihood estimator of N under a dichotomous latent class model does not exist for a particular set of LB models. Several distributions for the heterogeneous catchability are considered; they allow to investigate the sensitivity of the population size estimate to the model for the heterogeneous catchability.

Abstract

Exchangeable copulas are used to model an extra-binomial variation in Bernoulli experiments with a variable number of trials. Maximum likelihood inference procedures for the intra-cluster correlation are constructed for several copula families. The selection of a particular model is carried out using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Profile likelihood confidence intervals for the intra-cluster correlation are constructed and their performance are assessed in a simulation experiment. The sensitivity of the inference to the specification of the copula family is also investigated through simulations. Numerical examples are presented.

We investigate the nonparametric estimation of Kendall's coefficient of concordance, ?, for measuring the association between two variables under bivariate censoring. The proposed estimator is a modification of the estimator introduced by Oakes (1982), using a Horvitz-Thompson-type correction for the pairs that are not orderable. With censored data, a pair is orderable if one can establish whether the uncensored pair is discordant or concordant using the data available for that pair. Our estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A simulation study shows that the proposed estimator performs well when compared with competing alternatives. The various methods are illustrated with a real data set.