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  • Author: Blakeley B McShane x
  • Probability and Statistics x
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Numerous statistics have been proposed to measure offensive ability in Major League Baseball. While some of these measures may offer moderate predictive power in certain situations, it is unclear which simple offensive metrics are the most reliable or consistent. We address this issue by using a hierarchical Bayesian variable selection model to determine which offensive metrics are most predictive within players across time. Our sophisticated methodology allows for full estimation of the posterior distributions for our parameters and automatically adjusts for multiple testing, providing a distinct advantage over alternative approaches. We implement our model on a set of fifty different offensive metrics and discuss our results in the context of comparison to other variable selection techniques. We find that a large number of metrics demonstrate signal. However, these metrics are (i) highly correlated with one another, (ii) can be reduced to about five without much loss of information, and (iii) these five relate to traditional notions of performance (e.g., plate discipline, power, and ability to make contact).

A plethora of statistics have been proposed to measure the effectiveness of pitchers in Major League Baseball. While many of these are quite traditional (e.g., ERA, wins), some have gained currency only recently (e.g., WHIP, K/BB). Some of these metrics may have predictive power, but it is unclear which are the most reliable or consistent. We address this question by constructing a Bayesian random effects model that incorporates a point mass mixture and fitting it to data on twenty metrics spanning approximately 2,500 players and 35 years. Our model identifies FIP, HR/9, ERA, and BB/9 as the highest signal metrics for starters and GB%, FB%, and K/9 as the highest signal metrics for relievers. In general, the metrics identified by our model are independent of team defense. Our procedure also provides a relative ranking of metrics separately by starters and relievers and shows that these rankings differ quite substantially between them. Our methodology is compared to a Lasso-based procedure and is internally validated by detailed case studies.