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  • Author: Peter Tillmann x
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This paper analyzes the rationale for delegating monetary policy to an inflation-averse central banker when there is a preference for robustness of optimal policy with respect to misspecifications of the underlying model of the economy. We use a simple New Keynesian model to show how the optimal output gap weight in the central bank's objective function depends on the degree of model uncertainty. In particular, we show numerically that the rationale for appointing a conservative central bank prevails even if the central bank is concerned about the robustness of policy with respect to model misspecifications. Moreover, we find that the central bank should put more relative weight on inflation stabilization if the degree of uncertainty increases. Interestingly, if the degree of uncertainty is large, monetary policy should be delegated to a conservative central banker even in the absence of shock persistence.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the persistence of inflation in the euro area and, in particular, whether the persistence properties have changed since the start of European Monetary Union(EMU). For that purpose, we compare pre- and post-EMU inflation persistence, use rolling-window estimates of persistence, and apply tests specifically designed to detect break dates near the end of the sample period. In contrast to previous research, we find that inflation persistence has fallen significantly since the start of EMU. Persistence of consumer price inflation, which is central to the European Central Bank’s policy mandate, has fallen more than the persistence of deflator inflation. The drop in inflation persistence is consistent with the results from a simulated small New Keynesian model with a shift toward a more aggressive monetary policy stance.

Abstract

With persistence in macroeconomic variables two aspects of exchange rate credibility emerge whose relative importance varies over time. Both aspects have opposite implications for the relation between fundamentals and credibility. Hence, the effect of policy measures on interest rate differentials becomes ambiguous. In this paper a Markov-switching VAR that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent determination of credibility for major EMS currencies. Regime-dependent impulse response functions reveal substantial differences in the response of spreads to macroeconomic shocks across regimes.

Abstract

Central banks face uncertainty about the true location of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We model optimal discretionary monetary policy during a liquidity trap when the central bank designs policy that is robust with respect to the location of the ELB. If the central bank fears the worst-case location of the ELB, monetary conditions will be more expansionary in the period before the liquidity trap.

Abstract

This paper gives an overview of the theory and some selected applications of the Multi-Configuration Time-Dependent Hartree-Fock (MCTDHF) method. This method can be seen as an explicitly time-dependent version of the Complete Active Space Self-Consistent Field (CASSCF) method of standard quantum chemistry. Strengths and shortcomings are discussed, and some comparisons with other methods of correlated electron dynamics are given.

Abstract

The crystal structures of eight different L-malates have been determined and refined from single-crystal X-ray diffraction data. The compounds are the monoclinic (space group P21, Z = 2) L-malates Ca(C4H4O5)·3H2O (a = 6.652(1) Å, b = 8.378(1) Å, c = 8.268(1) Å, β = 112.65(2)°, R = 0.027), Ni(C4H4O5)·3H2O (a = 5.762(1) Å, b = 9.006(2) Å, c = 8.406(1) Å, β = 105.54(1)°, R = 0.024), CuH2(C4H4O5)2 (a = 9.911(1) Å, b = 5.271(1) Å, c = 11.510(1) Å, β = 109.33(1)°, R = 0.031), CsH(C4H4O5)·H2O (a = 7.439(1) Å, b = 7.481(1) Å, c = 7.852(1) Å, β = 116.67(1)°, R = 0.027) as well as the four isomorphic tetragonal (space group P41212, Z = 4) L-malates MgH2(C4H4O5)2·4H2O (a = 7.524(1) Å, c = 27.459(2) Å, R = 0.041), MnH2(C4H4O5)2·4H2O (a = 7.548(1) Å, c = 27.707(2) Å, R = 0.027), CoH2(C4H4O5)2·4H2O (a = 7.519(1) Å, c = 27.537(2) Å, R = 0.030) and ZnH2(C4H4O5)2·4H2O (a = 7.533(1) Å, c = 27.360(2) Å, R = 0.029). A comparison of the atomic arrangements of L-malates with their racemic counterparts shows different aspects of symmetry as well as differences in the connectivity of the building units.

In addition, for all the compounds, powder diffraction data were collected, analysed and submitted to the powder diffraction file (PDF).

Abstract

We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation rate. As economic theory provides reasons for inflation persistence to differ across conditional quantiles, this is a potentially severe constraint. Conventional studies of inflation persistence cannot identify changes in persistence at selected quantiles that leave persistence at the mean of the distribution unchanged. Based on post-war US data we indeed find robust evidence for a structural break in persistence at all quantiles of the inflation process in the early 1980s. While prior to the 1980s inflation was not mean reverting, quantile autoregression based unit root tests suggest that since the end of the Volcker disinflation the unit root can be rejected at every quantile of the conditional inflation distribution.

Large single crystals of ammonium bis(nitrilotriacetato)zirconate, (NH4)2[Zr{N(CH2COO)3}2] (to be written (NH4)2[Zr(NTA)2), were grown. Linear optical properties were measured (indices of refraction and transparency range) and the phase matching conditions for second harmonic generation process were determined. Crystal structures of the zirconate and the isomorphic hafnate were solved from single crystal X-ray diffraction data (P31,2; Z= 3; Zr: a= 9.582(1)Å, c= 16.611(4)Å, Hf: a= 9.5846(5)Å, c=16.5920(8)Å and the geometry of the complex groups [Zr(NTA)2]2- and [Hf(NTA)2]2- was analysed.