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M., Yildirim A., Adaptive multi-step differential transformation method to solving nonlinear differential equations, Math. Comput. Model., 2012, 55, 761–769. [12] Iwami S., Takeuchi Y., Liu X., Avian-human influenza epidemic model, Math. Bio., 2007, 207, 1–25. [13] Pukhov G.E., Differential Transformations of functions and equations, Naukova Dumka, Kiev, 1980 (in Russian). [14] Chen C.L., Lin S.H., Chen C.K., Application of Taylor transformation to nonlinear predictive control problem, Appl. Math. Modell., 1996, 20, 699–710. [15] Yeh Y.L., Wang C.C., Jang M

RESULTS AM) PERSPECTIVES OP THE MATHEMATICAL FORECASTING OF INFLUENZA EPIDEMICS IN USSR Ivanni kov Yu.G. All-Union Research Institute of Influenza»Leningrad,USSR Fro» 1970 in the All-Union Research Institute of in- fluenza »Ministry of Health of the USSR,the All-Union in- formation computerised system of the influenza epidemic forecasting is developing. This system is based on the L.A.Rvachev's mathematical model [l| and on an influenza surveillance in the USSR [2] . The epidemic modelling con- sists of two stages: the modelling of the local epidemic in a

effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic. KEYWORDS: influenza epidemic, quarterly CGE model Author Notes: This research was supported by the United States

.G., Macintyre C.R., Influenzarelated hospitalisation and death in Australians aged 50 years and older, Vaccine, 2008, 26, 2135–2141 [9] Reichert T.A., Simonsen L., Sharma A., Pardo S.A., Fedson D.S., Miller M.A., Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959–1999, Am. J. Epidemiol., 2004, 160, 492–502 [10] Takahashi M., Nagai M., Estimation of excess mortality associated with influenza epidemics specific for sex, age and cause of death in Japan during 1987

techniques to predict epidemic curves and infer underlying disease parameters for an ongoing outbreak. Six supervised classification methods (random forest, support vector machines, nearest neighbor with three decision rules, linear and flexible discriminant analysis) were used in identifying partial epidemic curves from six agent-based stochastic simulations of influenza epidemics. The accuracy of the methods was compared using a performance metric based on the McNemar test. The findings showed that: (1) assumptions made by the methods regarding the structure of an

The Influenza Epidemic in the U.S. Army during World War I


Influenza is still one of the major plagues worldwide with the threatening potential to cause pandemics. In recent years, increasing levels of resistance to the four FDA approved anti-influenza virus drugs have been described. This situation underlines the urgent need for novel anti-virals in preparation for future influenza epidemics or pandemics. Although the anti-virals currently in use target viral factors such as the neuraminidase or the M2 ion channel, there is an increase in pre-clinical approaches that focus on cellular factors or pathways that directly or indirectly interact with virus replication. This does not only include inhibitors of virus-supportive signaling cascades but also interaction blockers of viral proteins with host cell proteins. This review aims to highlight some of these novel approaches that represent a paradigm change in anti-viral strategies against the influenza virus. Although most of these approaches are still in an early phase of preclinical development they might be very promising particularly with respect to the prevention of viral resistance to potential drugs.

Models and Applications

Fever of War Fever of War The Influenza Epidemic in the U.S. Army during World War I Carol R. Byerly a N E W Y O R K U N I V E R S I T Y P R E S S New York and London n e w y o r k u n i v e r s i t y p r e s s New York and London © 2005 by New York University All rights reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Byerly, Carol R. Fever of war : the influenza epidemic in the U.S. Army during World War I / Carol R. Byerly. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0–8147–9923–X (cloth : alk. paper) — ISBN


Contents List of Figures ix List of Abbreviations xi Acknowledgments xiii Prologue: Eddie 1 Introduction 4 1 Medical Heroes: Medical Officers’ Confidence as They Prepare for War 14 2 Building a Healthy Army: Government Control and Accountability 39 3 Worst-Case Scenario: The Influenza Epidemic of 1918 in the Camps 69 4 Fighting Germs and Germans: Influenza in the American Expeditionary Forces 97 5 Postmortem: The Trauma of Failure, 1918–1919 125 6 “Except for the Flu . . .”: Writing the History of the Epidemic 153 Conclusion: Memory and the Politics of