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uses a different coding scheme here to simplify matters. Any vote taken over a bill falls into either the government or private members’ bill category, depending on the sponsor. The same logic applies for all types of motions. 10 This is obtained from the combination of the parliament (positive) and parliament squared (negative) coefficients. Note that this last analysis is also reproduced in the online appendix to this chapter, where the dependent variable is replaced by a weighted Rice index, which considers abstentions as a potential vote choice. The results

the weakening of partisan ties. But there have been arguments that the so-called popularity of party leaders in vote choice is not what it is alleged to be, and the authors argue that there is considerable evidence that the impact of leaders has a marginal effect on election outcomes. Because there has been little systematic study of the impact of leaders on individual vote choice and party vote share, to shed some light on the issue, the authors undertake an examination of Canadian election stud- ies data for eight elections held from 1968 to 2000. They use

Jean Tillie. 1999. “Political Participation and Political Trust in Amsterdam: Civic Communities and Ethnic Networks.” Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 25 (4): 703–26. Finifter, Ada W., and Bernard M. Finifter. 1989. “Party Identification and Political Adaptation of American Migrants in Australia.” Journal of Politics 51 (3): 599–630. Fisher, Stephen D., Anthony F. Heath, David Sanders, and Maria Sobolewska. 2014. “Candidate Ethnicity and Vote Choice in Britain.” British Journal of Political Science: 1–23. Fleischmann, Fenella, and Jaap Dronkers. 2010

consequences for Canadians. Taking these assumptions as given, our primary task in this book is to empirically assess the validity of a number of widely held beliefs among 4 Winning and Keeping Power in Canadian Politics pundits, practitioners, and academics about the kind of strategies that are effective at influencing vote choice and behaviour during general elections. For example, do negative campaigns and political scandals affect vote share? Do candidate endorsements and the quality of a lo- cal candidate matter? We also assess a number of strategies commonly

. Makihara, Izuru. 2005. ‘Sengo seiji no soukessan’ ga mamonaku owaru: Rekishi kara mita keizai zaisei shimon kaigi to sono shouraizou.’ Ronza (August): 53–62. Martin, Sherry L. 2008a. ‘Gender, Vote Choice, and the Evolving Security and Defense Debates in Japanese Politics.’ Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Program on U.S.- Japan Relations. – 2008b. ‘Japanese Political Attitudes Against an Evolving Political Landscape.’ In Japan’s Political Mess: Abe Failed, Can Fukuda Do Better?, edited by Mark Mohr. Washington, DC

finds that most of the required information is being reported by the various polling firms. However, the reporting of response rates is un- even, which makes it more difficult to assess the accuracy of the sample size used to represent populations. If, for example, 1000 contacts yield only 100 completes, there would be grounds for concern about the sample’s accuracy. We will address this subject more fully in our next chapter. Voting choice has been the subject of much study by political scien- tists in Canada. A dominant theme of this research is how the connec- tion

pos- itive cue about the incumbent governing party or a negative cue about the official Opposition has an effect on vote choice immediately before voting versus voting after a delay. To test this, we need to isolate the effect of election timing from the other individual and contextual fac- tors likely to influence vote choice. Our research design allows us to do just that. What we are left with, in our controlled environment, is an observable measure of the change in the probability of voting for the incumbent as a result of timing an election when it is to

, these voter vignettes suggest that the Conservative base – or at least the party’s perception of its own base – has not changed much since the merger, especially with respect to women voters. As a result, it is perhaps unsurprising the gender gap in vote choice for parties on the political right in Canadian federal elections persisted throughout the 2000s (see Gidengil et al. 2005), though it waned con- siderably by 2011 (Gidengil et al. 2011). Traditionally, Canadian wom- en were more reluctant than men to support the Reform, Canadian Alliance, and merged

isolated from direct participation in politics. Presenting polls as part of the entertainment in the news allows individuals to see where they stand in relation to others within a political community. On the other hand, reporting focused on the personal attributes of the candi- dates may contribute significantly to voting choice. In American presi- dential elections for example, it has been shown that the personal attractiveness and likeability of the candidate may add 4 per cent to the net advantage of an incumbent (Erikson and Tedin, 2001). Indeed, they note that

One- Party-Plus? Ideology, Vote Choice, and Prospects for a Competitive Party System in Canada.” Electoral Studies 23: 463–83. Senate Historical Office. 2003. Albert Arnold Gore, Jr.: 45th Vice President: 1993–2001. Available from <> (9 March 2007). Shales, Thomas. 4 November 2000. “Presidential Bash: Hands Down Winner.” The Washington Post, p. 1. Smith, Chris, and Ben Voth. 2002. “The Role of Humor in Political Argument: How ‘Strategery’ and ‘Lockboxes’ Changed a Political Campaign