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–76. Green, Donald P., Christopher W. Larimer, and Celia Paris. 2010. “When Social Pressure Fails: The Untold Story of Null Findings.” Paper presented at the 68th Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, 22–5 April. 80 Duty and Choice Gross, Alan E., Michael J. Schmidt, John P. Keating, and Michael J. Saks. 1974. “Persuasion, Surveillance, and Voting Behavior.” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 10 (5): 451–60. Mann, Christopher B. 2010. “Is There Backlash to Social Pressure? A Large- Scale Field Experiment on Voter Mobilization

rates and/or greater procrastination will be less likely to vote. Behavioural Anomalies Explain Variation in Voter Turnout 59 Data and Methods Our study relies on the Swedish Twin Registry, the largest twin registry in the world. The survey we use (called SALTY) was administered on this sample from the fall of 2008 to the spring of 2010. We include ap- proximately 9,000 subjects who completed the survey. The instrument asked subjects whether they voted in the last Swedish general parlia- mentary election in 2006. SALTY subjects were matched to administra- tive

's The Government of Canada (1947). Somewhat more theoretically weighted were the comparative study by J. A. Corry, Democratic Government and Politics (1946) and Brady's Democracy in the Dominions (1947). It is now possible to see where the gaps lie in our knowledge of Canadian politics and government. These are most conspicuous for the political process, i.e., in the fields of parties, pressure groups, voting behaviour, electoral sys- tems, public opinion, propaganda, etc. Nor is there any book on the Cabinet or the prime ministership. In spite of preliminary forays


: 246–78. Barber, James David. 1992. The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House. 4th ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. Bartels, Larry M. 1996. “Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952–1996.” American Journal of Political Science 44: 35–50. Bartolini, Stefano, and Peter Mair. 1990. Identity, Competition, and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates 1885–1985. Cambridge: Cambridge U P. Bercuson, David Jay, J.L. Granatstein, and W.R. Young. 1986. Sacred Trust? Brian Mulroney and the Conservative Party in Power

re-election? It draws heavily on the analysis of the determinants of voting behaviour discussed in chapter 2. 86 A theory of the expenditure budgetary process Each jurisdiction is divided into a number of ridings and in each riding there are a number of qualified voters. Under a two-party system, which we are assum- ing to exist to avoid the complexities of coalitions, these voters can adopt one of four alternative decision rules (we ignore here the interest group activities of some individuals that were discussed earlier): the indifferent voter will abstain from

.4 per cent). More than any other event in recent history, the extraordinarily narrow margin of victory for the federalist forces in the 1995 sovereignty referendum dramatized that Quebecers support for Canada's national political regime and community remained highly problematic as the twentieth century drew to a close. This chapter analyses factors that influenced voting behaviour in the referendum and the impact on the event on public opinion in Quebec and the rest of the country. The significance of a study of the 1995 sovereignty referendum transcends the Canadian

what political scientists call “the fundamentals” right ( Johnston, Hagen, and Jamieson, 2004; Gelman and King, 1993; Wlezien, 2001). One of these fundamen- tals was party identification. As discussed in earlier chapters, partisanship might not be an “unmoved mover” in the field of psychological forces affecting voting behavior but, at any point in time, it had significant direct and indirect forces on electoral choice. In this regard, although the historically large Democratic lead in party identification had eroded over time, this long-term trend was overlaid

perspective in the work of Dunleavy and his collaborators, and from a sociological viewpoint in the analyses of Saunders. Both writers have applied their ideas empirically in the analysis of large-scale surveys. Sectoral cleavages and voting behaviour Dunleavy used the 'sectoral cleavage' approach in analysis of the 1979 General Election Survey in order to assess the importance of two divisions associated with the growth of the welfare state in voting behaviour. The divisions are between those with access to private forms of consumption, particularly in the use of


Insight 8 (2): 43–9. – 2010. “The New Immigrant Voter, 1965–2004: The Emergence of a New Liberal Partisan?” In Voting Behaviour in Canada, edited by Cameron D. Anderson and Laura B. Stephenson, 65–85. Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press. Bilodeau, Antoine, Ian McAllister, and Mebs Kanji. 2010. “Adaptation to Democracy among Immigrants in Australia.” International Political Science Review 31 (2): 141–66. 248 References Bilodeau, Antoine, and Neil Nevitte. 2003. “Political Trust for a New Regime: The Case of Immigrants from Non- Democratic Countries in

States-Japan Security Treaty had softened to the extent that its renewal did not stimulate the same level of conten- tion it had inspired only a decade before. The intensity of ideological divisiveness and activism around secu- rity and defence left an imprint on electoral politics, and these issues continued to structure voting behaviour well after they were resolved or lost salience. Public opinion under the ‘1955 System’ was split over peace versus military defence and security values. Substantively, this meant that voters were split over whether the emperor