Green, Donald P., Christopher W. Larimer, and Celia Paris. 2010. “When Social
Pressure Fails: The Untold Story of Null Findings.” Paper presented at the
68th Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago,
80 Duty and Choice
Gross, Alan E., Michael J. Schmidt, John P. Keating, and Michael J. Saks. 1974.
“Persuasion, Surveillance, and VotingBehavior.” Journal of Experimental
Social Psychology 10 (5): 451–60.
Mann, Christopher B. 2010. “Is There Backlash to Social Pressure? A Large-
Scale Field Experiment on Voter Mobilization
rates and/or greater procrastination will be less likely to
Behavioural Anomalies Explain Variation in Voter Turnout 59
Data and Methods
Our study relies on the Swedish Twin Registry, the largest twin registry
in the world. The survey we use (called SALTY) was administered on
this sample from the fall of 2008 to the spring of 2010. We include ap-
proximately 9,000 subjects who completed the survey. The instrument
asked subjects whether they voted in the last Swedish general parlia-
mentary election in 2006. SALTY subjects were matched to administra-
's The Government of
Canada (1947). Somewhat more theoretically weighted were the comparative
study by J. A. Corry, Democratic Government and Politics (1946) and
Brady's Democracy in the Dominions (1947).
It is now possible to see where the gaps lie in our knowledge of Canadian
politics and government. These are most conspicuous for the political process,
i.e., in the fields of parties, pressure groups, votingbehaviour, electoral sys-
tems, public opinion, propaganda, etc. Nor is there any book on the Cabinet
or the prime ministership. In spite of preliminary forays
Barber, James David. 1992. The Presidential Character: Predicting Performance in the White House. 4th
ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Bartels, Larry M. 1996. “Partisanship and VotingBehavior, 1952–1996.” American Journal of Political
Science 44: 35–50.
Bartolini, Stefano, and Peter Mair. 1990. Identity, Competition, and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation
of European Electorates 1885–1985. Cambridge: Cambridge U P.
Bercuson, David Jay, J.L. Granatstein, and W.R. Young. 1986. Sacred Trust? Brian Mulroney and the
Conservative Party in Power
re-election? It draws heavily on
the analysis of the determinants of votingbehaviour discussed in chapter 2.
86 A theory of the expenditure budgetary process
Each jurisdiction is divided into a number of ridings and in each riding there
are a number of qualified voters. Under a two-party system, which we are assum-
ing to exist to avoid the complexities of coalitions, these voters can adopt one of
four alternative decision rules (we ignore here the interest group activities of
some individuals that were discussed earlier): the indifferent voter will abstain
.4 per cent). More than any other event
in recent history, the extraordinarily narrow margin of victory for
the federalist forces in the 1995 sovereignty referendum dramatized
that Quebecers support for Canada's national political regime and
community remained highly problematic as the twentieth century
drew to a close. This chapter analyses factors that influenced votingbehaviour in the referendum and the impact on the event on public
opinion in Quebec and the rest of the country.
The significance of a study of the 1995 sovereignty referendum
transcends the Canadian
what political scientists call “the fundamentals” right ( Johnston, Hagen, and
Jamieson, 2004; Gelman and King, 1993; Wlezien, 2001). One of these fundamen-
tals was party identification. As discussed in earlier chapters, partisanship might
not be an “unmoved mover” in the field of psychological forces affecting votingbehavior but, at any point in time, it had significant direct and indirect forces on
electoral choice. In this regard, although the historically large Democratic lead in
party identification had eroded over time, this long-term trend was overlaid
perspective in the
work of Dunleavy and his collaborators, and from a sociological
viewpoint in the analyses of Saunders. Both writers have applied
their ideas empirically in the analysis of large-scale surveys.
Sectoral cleavages and votingbehaviour
Dunleavy used the 'sectoral cleavage' approach in analysis of the
1979 General Election Survey in order to assess the importance of
two divisions associated with the growth of the welfare state in
votingbehaviour. The divisions are between those with access to
private forms of consumption, particularly in the use of
Insight 8 (2): 43–9.
– 2010. “The New Immigrant Voter, 1965–2004: The Emergence of a New
Liberal Partisan?” In VotingBehaviour in Canada, edited by Cameron D.
Anderson and Laura B. Stephenson, 65–85. Vancouver: University of British
Bilodeau, Antoine, Ian McAllister, and Mebs Kanji. 2010. “Adaptation to
Democracy among Immigrants in Australia.” International Political Science
Review 31 (2): 141–66.
Bilodeau, Antoine, and Neil Nevitte. 2003. “Political Trust for a New Regime:
The Case of Immigrants from Non- Democratic Countries in
States-Japan Security Treaty had softened
to the extent that its renewal did not stimulate the same level of conten-
tion it had inspired only a decade before.
The intensity of ideological divisiveness and activism around secu-
rity and defence left an imprint on electoral politics, and these issues
continued to structure votingbehaviour well after they were resolved
or lost salience. Public opinion under the ‘1955 System’ was split over
peace versus military defence and security values. Substantively, this
meant that voters were split over whether the emperor