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informal logic, a number of concepts can be subsumed, including defeasible reasoning, presumptive reasoning or warrants for reasoning, see Blair (2007) for a discussion. 2 This account of plausibility in the philosophy of science is not exhaustive and only pres- ents accounts of plausibility that have been prominently discussed in the literature and/or seem relevant for the study of scenario users’ plausibility assessments. Plausibi- lity debates within the philosophical strand of confirmation theory are acknowledged but left out of the analysis. These primarily pay

subjective probabilities but do not prescribe probability rules [Schafer 1978]), or fuzzy set theory (an approach that defines whether an event is more or less true by establishing more precise definitions of the event which can then be assessed using membership functions [Zim- mermann 1985])4. Despite their nuanced elaboration and discussion in the philosophy of sciences, these approaches have not been widely implemented in empirical research, because these methods tend to be rather complicated, abstract and too far from empirical reality (Kangas & Kangas 2004:183). This

very strong effects. Note that from a philosophy of sciences and informal logic perspective (for instance by Rescher [1976] or Walton [1992a]), internal consistency constitutes a formal testing procedure. However, with the focus of this study on parti- cipants’ perceptions, the variable expresses whether some individual beliefs a scenario is internally consistent or not. This does not necessarily correspond with formal testing. In fact, the results indicate that although the CIBmethod features formal measures to ensure internal consistency and the IL method does not

theoretical assumption from other disciplinary contexts to scenario planning. Except for formal assessment procedures put forth by philosophy of sciences (Rescher 1976), all theoretical models see a form of ‘conceptual co- herence’ to be directly connected with plausibility judgments. Qualitative and quantitative findings affirm that the more sources of corroboration a scena- rio recipient finds, the more plausible a scenario is judged. This is confirmed on different levels. Strong to very strong, positive bivariate relationships exist between plausibility judgments and

as a vicari- ous selector”, Philosophy of Science, 66: 287-298. https://doi.org/10.1016/ S1574-101X(08)00406-7 Amer, M., Daim, T., Jetter, A. (2013): “A review of scenario planning”, Futures, 46: 23-40. Andersen, U.,Woyke,W. (2013): Handwörterbuch des politischen Systems der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Vol. 7. Heidelberg: Springer VS. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-3-531-19072-3 Anton, J. (1990): “Book Review: Majone, G. Evidence, Argument & Persuasion in the Policy Process”, Policy Sciences, 23: 177-182. 230 The Plausibility of Future Scenarios Appelrath, H

Abstract

What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research.

Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.

Abstract

What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research.

Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.

Abstract

What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research.

Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.

Abstract

What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research.

Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.

Abstract

What does plausibility mean in relation to scenario planning and how do users of scenarios assess it? Despite the concept's ubiquity, its epistemological and empirical foundations remain unexplored in previous research.

Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele offers an interdisciplinary perspective: she presents approaches from philosophy of sciences, cognitive psychology, narrative theory and linguistics, and tests key hypotheses in an experimental study. A conceptual map lays out indicators for scenario plausibility and explains how assessments vary across scenario methods. This helps researchers and practitioners to better understand the implications of their methodological choices in scenario development.