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Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica

The Journal of University of West Hungary

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Modelling the Potential Distribution of Three Climate Zonal Tree Species for Present and Future Climate in Hungary

Norbert Móricz / Ervin Rasztovits
  • Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of West Hungary, Sopron, Hungary
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
 / Borbála Gálos
  • Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of West Hungary, Sopron, Hungary
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
 / Imre Berki
  • Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of West Hungary, Sopron, Hungary
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
 / Attila Eredics
  • Institute of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of West Hungary, Sopron, Hungary
  • Other articles by this author:
  • De Gruyter OnlineGoogle Scholar
 / Wolfgang Loibl
Published Online: 2014-02-27 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/aslh-2013-0007

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Abstract

The potential distribution and composition rate of beech, sessile oak and Turkey oak were investigated for present and future climates (2036-2065 and 2071-2100) in Hungary. Membership functions were defined using the current composition rate (percentage of cover in forest compartments) of the tree species and the long-term climate expressed by the Ellenberg quotient to model the present and future tree species distribution and composition rate. The simulation results using the regional climate model REMO showed significant decline of beech and sessile oak in Hungary during the 21st century. By the middle of the century only about 35% of the present beech and 75% of the sessile oak stands will remain above their current potential distribution limit. By the end of the century beech forests may almost disappear from Hungary and sessile oak will also be found only along the Southwest border and in higher mountain regions. On the contrary the present occurrences of Turkey oak will be almost entirely preserved during the century however its distribution area will shift to the current sessile oak habitats.

Kivonat

Három klímazonális fafaj hazai potenciális elterjedésének modellezése jelenlegi és jövőbeni klímában. A bükk, a kocsánytalan tölgy és a csertölgy potenciális elterjedését és elegyarányát vizsgáltuk Magyarországon a jelenlegi és a jövőben (2036-2065 és 2071-2100) várható klimatikus körülmények között. A vizsgált fafajok jelenlegi elegyarányának (az erdőrészletben elfoglalt terület aránya, %) és a klímának (az Ellenberg index-el kifejezve) az összefüggését használtuk a fafajok elterjedésének modellezéséhez. A REMO regionális klímamodellel történt szimuláció a bükk és a kocsánytalan tölgy elterjedési területének és elegyarányának jelentős csökkenését mutatta a 21. század folyamán. A század közepére a jelenlegi bükk állományok 35%-a, a kocsánytalan tölgy állományok 75%-a maradna a jelenlegi alsó elterjedési határuk felett. A század végére a bükk szinte teljesen eltűnhet Magyarország területéről és a kocsánytalan tölgy is a magasabb hegyvidékekre és a délnyugati határ menti területre húzódhat vissza. Ellenben a csertölgy jelenlegi állományait várhatóan nem érinti számottevően a klímaváltozás, viszont az elterjedési területe a jelenlegi kocsánytalan tölgyes állományok helyét foglalhatja el.

Keywords : potential tree species distribution; composition rate; beech; sessile oak; Turkey oak

Keywords : potenciális fafaj elterjedés; elegyarány; bükk; kocsánytalan tölgy; csertölgy

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About the article

Published Online: 2014-02-27

Published in Print: 2013-12-01

Citation Information: Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica, Volume 9, Issue 1, Pages 85–96, ISSN (Print) 1787-064X, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/aslh-2013-0007.

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