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The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy

Editor-in-Chief: Jürges, Hendrik / Ludwig, Sandra

Ed. by Auriol , Emmanuelle / Brunner, Johann / Fleck, Robert / Mendola, Mariapia / Requate, Till / Schirle, Tammy / de Vries, Frans / Zulehner, Christine

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Volume 4, Issue 1 (Sep 2004)


Volume 6 (2006)

Volume 4 (2004)

Volume 2 (2002)

Volume 1 (2001)

The Selection Effects (and Lack Thereof) in Patent Litigation: Evidence from Trials

Alan C. Marco
Published Online: 2004-09-13 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1538-0653.1226


Using a selection corrected probit, I estimate the probability that patents will be found valid and infringed at trial. I combine for the first time detailed adjudication data with detailed patent data. I find that the selection effects for validity adjudications and infringement adjudications differ systematically. Additionally, infringement estimates do not appear to suffer from a substantial selection bias. The results highlight the importance of correctly specifying the selection mechanism in policy analysis. In contrast with previous studies, I find that the win rate for patents that go to trial is biased towards 50%. The bias is much more substantial for validity decisions, where I find unconditional win rates of 75% for adjudicated patents and 85% for matched patents. Win rates conditional on adjudication are below 60%.

Keywords: Patent Litigation; Selection; Patent Value

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Published Online: 2004-09-13

Citation Information: Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy, ISSN (Online) 1538-0653, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1538-0653.1226.

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