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The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy

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Volume 4, Issue 1 (Sep 2004)


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Volume 1 (2001)

The Selection Effects (and Lack Thereof) in Patent Litigation: Evidence from Trials

Alan C. Marco
  • 1Vassar College,
Published Online: 2004-09-13 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1538-0653.1226


Using a selection corrected probit, I estimate the probability that patents will be found valid and infringed at trial. I combine for the first time detailed adjudication data with detailed patent data. I find that the selection effects for validity adjudications and infringement adjudications differ systematically. Additionally, infringement estimates do not appear to suffer from a substantial selection bias. The results highlight the importance of correctly specifying the selection mechanism in policy analysis. In contrast with previous studies, I find that the win rate for patents that go to trial is biased towards 50%. The bias is much more substantial for validity decisions, where I find unconditional win rates of 75% for adjudicated patents and 85% for matched patents. Win rates conditional on adjudication are below 60%.

Keywords: Patent Litigation; Selection; Patent Value

About the article

Published Online: 2004-09-13

Citation Information: Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy, ISSN (Online) 1538-0653, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2202/1538-0653.1226. Export Citation

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