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The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy

Editor-in-Chief: Jürges, Hendrik / Ludwig, Sandra

Ed. by Auriol , Emmanuelle / Brunner, Johann / Fleck, Robert / Mendola, Mariapia / Requate, Till / Schirle, Tammy / de Vries, Frans / Zulehner, Christine

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Volume 5, Issue 1 (Sep 2005)


Volume 6 (2006)

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Volume 1 (2001)

Trade Potentials in Gravity Panel Data Models

Luca De Benedictis / Claudio Vicarelli
Published Online: 2005-09-27 | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/1538-0653.1386


The paper shows how - using as an example the trade flows between eleven European countries and 31 OECD `reporting' countries - the result of a gravity model, in terms of potential trade, changes substantially when country heterogeneity and dynamics are taken into account.

Comparing the in-sample trade potential index derived from various estimators yields three different results: (a) the average trade potential index poorly represents the distribution of yearly trade potentials; (b) the index converges towards the demarcation value corresponding to the equality between observed and predicted trade flows when country heterogeneity and dynamics are taken into account; (c) the sign of its yearly average is not the right statistic with which to determine the (in)existence of unrealized trade potentials.

Finally, the index derived from a dynamic specification with multilateral fixed-effects is better able to reflect the role played by the time-variant country-specific unobservable element associated with the possible presence of positive or negative trade potentials.

This article offers supplementary material which is provided at the end of the article.

Keywords: International bilateral trade; Gravity model; Trade potentials; Dynamic Panel Data; System-GMM estimator

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Published Online: 2005-09-27

Citation Information: The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, ISSN (Online) 1935-1682, ISSN (Print) 2194-6108, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/1538-0653.1386.

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©2011 Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co. KG, Berlin/Boston. Copyright Clearance Center

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